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EUR/JPY & USD/NOK Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 Posted 24 June  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #EUR/JPY #USD/NOK
Last two trade where long EUR/JPY and short USD/NOK but unfortunately things didn't worked as planned and I was forced to close both of this trades at a loss. At one point on my long EUR/JPY trade (see Figure 1) I was -100 pips in red but I wasn't willing to close it because the 138.00 daily support level was holding the price and there was a high probability that we'll get a minor bounce from there.
Figure 1. EUR/JPY 1h Chart

I decided to play it defensively and take a small loss of only -34 …
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Preparing the week ahead

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Fed #Bonds #Debt Bubble

All that matters during the coming week will be the Fed's monetary policy and press conference as the markets will shift their focus towards the timing of the next rate hike cycle. Next Fed objective is to give the market signals that they want to gradually move away from zero percent interest rates policy towards monetary-policy normalization.
In this regard, most likely, Fed is going to remove the the word “patient” from the statement, which was inserted last December to replace the phrase …
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Quick Review GBP/USD Trades

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #GBP/USD #Consolidation #Review #Psychological Number #Price Cascade
Cable has stared this week moving in a very tight consolidation just few pips above the psychological number and big round number 1.5000. At first impression it was behaving has it would hold as support and I got long (see 1st trade Figure 1) but I decided to move my SL closer to the market action as soon as I was in profit and in the end I ended up with around 50 pips in profits. After I got out I saw the down momentum was fading away and I tried one more time to go long but I was lucky enough …
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Shalomavahatikvah 13 Mar.

Yo! Long time!

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Daytrader21 13 Mar.

Shalomavahatikvah yooooo, well I was still around here haven't gone anywhere:). How things are going on your side?

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Gold Inflection Point

Daytrader21 Updated 8 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Gold #Trend Line #Seasonality #Bear Market #Commodity #Inflection Point

Before you start reading my current analysis on Gold I would recommend you to read my previous updates on gold with all the subsequent updates here: Gold Price Action Reminiscence of 2013
Base on my previous analysis the market has still not reach my target as I projected a target of $900 by measuring the current wedge pattern that stated with Jun 2013 bottom, and I've projected that range to the downside giving me that number.
Usually Gold performs quite well during the beginning of the year a…
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2015 Global FX Outlook

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Article Contest #Volatility #Bullish #Interest Rates #Fed #Fx Outlook

If the main macro theme of 2014 was the broad based dollar strength, the general consensus for 2015 is for further appreciation of the dollar. The implication of a strong dollar, and with the pick up in volatility, have also set in motion other trends, like the bearish commodity trends(see Metals and Oil), the carry trade has died (see AUD/USD and NZD/USD) and last but not least EUR/USD has finally started trading to the downside.
The broad based dollar strength can have a big impact on US econ…
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2 Comments
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verindur 3 Dec.

I think its boisterous and overconfident approach of the US strategicians still beleiving that they have got everything under control. How they are doing it most of the financial experts are aware of it. Most likely in 2016 everything is going to fall apart. And their could be a never seen before scenario.

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Daytrader21 3 Dec.

verindur  As long as we're in a bullish US dollar trend the wise thing to do is to go with the flow as price always follows the line of least resistance there is no need to fight it

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USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range.1000 Pips Profit

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Bullish #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Range #Fractal
I've posted in my blog this analysis on USD/CHF that I'm going to reproduce here more than 5 months ago, you can find the original post here: USD/CHF 3 Years of Trading Range.
"Since over 3 years USD/CHF has been trading in a wide range like many other CHF pairs. We have established between 0.9970 resistance level and 0.8600 support level an consolidation zone which based on Elliott Wave we can count only 4 waves which suggest that we still have to make another leg to the upside to comple…
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5 Comments
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VictoriaVika 15 Oct.

Daytrader21  yoooooo :) Best of luck :)

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Daytrader21 15 Oct.

VictoriaVika Thx and Good luck!!!

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Lencoeur 15 Oct.

Awesome work, as usual.

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Daytrader21 15 Oct.

Lencoeur gracias amigo:)

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JuliaBF 16 Oct.

Well done!

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EUR/USD Fed Taper Effect. Last Update.

Daytrader21 Posted 17 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Qe #EUR/USD #Fed #Rates #Taper #Forward Guidance
Since we're getting close to end for good the "glorious" FED QE program it's time for my last update on the famous EUR/USD Fed Taper Effect that was a good map for providing the direction for EUR/USD since beginning of the year.
You only need to watch the "technical effect" on EUR/USD, without the need to know any other details from Fed monetary policy and their next steps in order for you to be able to trade successfully EUR/USD.
You can find more details of my previous post on this subject her…
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Shalomavahatikvah 17 Sep.

Nice analysis, whazzzzuuppp? Long time>

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EUR/USD - Fed Tappering Effect

Daytrader21 Updated 16 June  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Monetary Policy #EUR/USD #Fomc #Fed #Taper #Janet Yellen
Since I'm already out of the Trader Contest without having any changes to get back in top 10 I just want to take the time and talk a little bit about the main event risk of the week: Fed Monetary Policy Statement
Last time I have talk about this issues was 2 months ago and you can find my blog post here: Fed Taper Effect
Market expectation for this week's FOMC meeting has not changed as QE tapering is on an autopilot and we should expect another $10B taper. The focus will be more on the u…
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From PermaBear EURUSD to Bull EURUSD

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Bear #Qe #EUR/USD #Fed #Taper #Bull
Since beginning of the year I've been the permabear guy and I've sold almost every rally, but because I was too biased I just couldn't see the other side of the market. Now, don't get me wrong I've made some decent profits from this shorts but I was expecting for the runner and almost every trade I've made went in profit like 50-100-200 pips but didn't booked profits because I was expecting EUR/USD going much more lower. So, on each of this trade I ended up either at a small loss o…
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3 Comments
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Dieselfx 10 Mar.

at least you can change...and you'll be surprised again ;))

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Daytrader21 10 Mar.

Well, that depends on what do you mean by "surprised":) you can elaborate more if you wish

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 13 Mar.

It's interesting how similar our views are!  I had some 100 pip short trades on EUR turn to 0 as well.  I'm watching the 61.8% retracement from 2011 high @ 1.3826  Unless we get a weekly close below that, or a break of 1.37, there's no reason to be a bear here at these levels in my opinion. 

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Non Farm Payroll

Daytrader21 Posted 7 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Dollar #Nfp #Interest Rates #Fed #Unemployment Rate #Us Job Market #Wages
The market consensus for today's release is that the employment will increase another 151K workers which is still a modest raise after last month worst than expected data.
Last two month's release where very bad for the US job market with a modest 113k jobs created in January and a very bad number of only 75k jobs created in December.
The only steady numbers is the unemployment rate which is expected to decrease again by 0.1% from 6.6% to 6.5%.
In Figure 1 you can observe how volatile the Non…
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