JonSnow's Blog

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Sterling Still Benefiting from Dollar Weakness

The pound is up again, it rebounded sharply yesterday and this morning it’s just below 1.40 level to the dollar. Honestly, this is the biggest mystery I don’t understand. With all the bad data that came in recently it should be on its knees but instead it’s ready to jump time after time for no reason. It also looks like the markets has become completely immune to any bad news regarding Brexit. I actually sold the pound against euro this morning to just give it one more try to make some money off…
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Dollar Up & Down – What Now?

Strange price action in the last 24 hours: first the dollar was up, then down but eventually closing the day with gains. Recent price action has a lot to do with equity markets which are getting spooked by the possibility of a faster than previously thought rise in interest rates in the US. Yields are also going up like there’s no tomorrow, hitting multi-year highs. The FOMC Minutes induced storm has past – what now?
I think now back to the “normal” trading, which means that dollar will keep mo…
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Dollar Buying Train Left Off Without Me!

I setup five conditional orders early in the morning yesterday all of them to dollar long. But none of them was filled. Later in the day when other currencies dropped even more to dollar, I made revisions to my entries so they would not be so far from the spot price. This morning still noting and my dilemma is whether I should wait for a retrace or just cancel them all. While I do believe that FOMC Minutes should be dollar supportive, in this market anything can happen, so I’m debating it, and m…
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Dollar Showing Signs of Life

What happened yesterday was exactly what I anticipated in my previous blog post. Some profit taking (ahead of the long weekend in the US) revitalized US dollar. As a result, I not only broke even, but I’m actually up for the week and back on the second place in Trader’s Contest.
But was it only the profit taking? We have been getting remarkably good economic data from the US this month, showing that the inflation is suddenly picking up. Yesterday’s housing stats also showed a big improvement. A…
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The Most Hated Currency

US dollar solidified its status of the most hated currency in the world. What looked like dollar buying in the last few days turned out to be just a correction and yesterday the green back was damped across the board. The really interesting thing was that the data released yesterday suggest that we are going to see 4 rate increases this year from the FED, yet, that did not help US dollar in any way. The dollar short trend was just too strong.
As for my trades (all dollar long) I basically broke…
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Betting on Dollar

It was a quiet trading day yesterday but volatility is going to pick up again, no doubt about that. Dollar corrected lower a bit but it’s advances are not over. It’s just a matter of time before we see another equity markets sell-offs and that will benefit yen and the greenback as well.
I just set up a few new positions hoping these orders will get filled today or tomorrow. I’m buying dollar against euro, British pound, Australian dollar and Polish zloty. I will also try to sell GBP against yen…
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New Week Opening Gaps?

I’m wondering if we are going to see big price gaps when the market opens again tomorrow.
In the last hours of NY session, the equities rebounded sharply along with yen and dollar losing some of their gains, but I don’t think this is over. While not exactly a panic, market moves showed a flight to safety. I believe the investors will continue closing their long positions against the US dollar and Japanese yen will continue making gains. Along with that tactic, I left 4 of my trades open over th…
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Volatility is The Name of The Game

What a great start of the month with the dollar finally showing some signs of life! In a few days most currencies erased their few week-long gains against US dollar, except Japanese yen of cause which in the off-risk environment with crashing equity markets is strengthening.
From the first day of the February Contents I was dollar long, and yen long and I got hefty rewords from my positions. Unfortunately, I closed my USD longs (against euro and the sterling) too soon. It was the fear of a viol…
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Dollar Comes Back

US dollar is showing a considerable demand this morning but the forces driving it are unclear. I guess, it must be "no bad news is a good news". Dollar is stronger across the board, even against Japanese Yes, regardless of new rhetoric coming from the Korean peninsula.
As for my trades, I managed to get on board of Sterling selling train but I missed the euro short, which by now could have been a quite lucrative trade. I also bought USD/CAD but that so far did not realize much profit. It seems t…
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Trade Ideas For New Week

I'm starting to think that I understand better what happened last week and why I took unwanted losses. Most of the time when I opened a position I was just too late and the market already discounted the news I was trying to trade. The March rate hike coming in less than 2 weeks is almost 90% sure thing. During Yellen's Friday speech the price action clearly showed that for now many pairs have bottomed out. Kiwi to the US dollar around 0.7000, aussie dollar close to 0.7440. EUR/USD at 1.0490 and …
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