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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0557, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bullish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Channel Line #Key Reversal #Bearish Technicals
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: After NFP debacle on Friday, there's definitely potential for some further upside in the days ahead. Especially if US data continues to disappoint. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday will be closely watched, while FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be subject to even more scrutiny. 50 DMA near 1.1030 and January low at 1.1098 are the first strong resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: In the worst week since mid-January, the pair has lost nearly four cents (392 pips), while weekly range extended more than 450 pips. After it has broken post-NFP high in the early part of Monday's US session, the pair looked poised for a break above March high (1.10522) and continuation higher. That didn't happen and the pair reversed lower with gusto. The decline continued in a familiar fashion with shallow pullbacks, shedding 50 - 100 pips each day until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: There's ECB meeting on Wednesday, so the most likely scenario is that the pair will consolidate on Monday and Tuesday. Support is found at the monthly declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows) near 1.0550 and then at the March cycle-low (1.0462). In the event that the pair corrects to the upside, March 31 low should offer some resistance, before 20 DMA near 1.0850.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: It looked like the pair will challenge 1.0450 low that was set on March 13, but sharp rejection from 1.05 level on Monday was one of the first signs that it won't go that easily. On Tuesday, the sentiment was reversed after weaker than expected US Retail Sales report. It was an uptrend from there till the end of the week, but one with deep pullbacks which demonstrated that there's still two-way interest in the pair.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: In the week ahead, there will be plenty market moving events that could impact the pair: ZEW on Tuesday; Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs on Thursday; Ifo survey on Friday with Eurogroup Meetings to boot. The first strong resistance comes in a way of 50 DMA, which has contained the downtrend since May 2014. Daily close above it would open path to 1.1098 weekly resistance, but false break and continuation lower is just as likely.

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EUR/USD bottom? Not just yet.

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0977, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Consolidation #EUR/USD #Fibonacci Retracement #Momentum #Divergence #Bearish Technicals #Yearly Lows #Technical Downtrend
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend was violated in January, but the pair managed to retrace back above it. The pair then held above the level until the last two trading days of February when it broke lower and closed the month below the level. The September 2003 low at 1…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: After some consolidation in the beginning of the week, the pair broke lower on Wednesday and closed the day on new eleven-year lows. On Thursday, during ECB press conference, it briefly traded back above 1.1098, but it reversed and proceeded to break 1.10. Then on Friday, before and after another strong US jobs report, it lost additional two cents, netting nearly 350 pips loss on the week. Support is now seen near 2003 low at 1.0760 and then at the monthly channel line (off lows of years 2008 and 2010, not shown on the charts) closer to 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: In another devastating week, the pair has lost additional three and a half cents. After a shallow pullback on Monday, it was one-way street lower, breaking September 2003 low, monthly channel line (drawn off lows of years 2008 and 2010) and 1.05 level, in the process. There was slight relief on Thursday, but it was quickly sold into and new lows followed on Friday with the pair closing below 1.05. There's not a lot of support now until 76.4% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend) and parity.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair was gaining since the beginning of the week, but the most volatile part came on Wednesday during and after FOMC meeting, when it surged more than 400 pips from pre-release levels. The pair gave it all back next day, but then picked up where it left off and continued to rally on Friday and closed above September 2013 low (1.0760). The pair has almost completely reversed last week's losses and at one point traded more than 100 pips above that week's high. First stronger resistance now comes near January 19 low (1.1097).

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Following a cent deep retracement early on Monday, the pair continued last Friday's rally and was poised to break above post-FOMC high on Tuesday, but solid US inflation report was enough to stall it. After some sideways action, the pair broke post-FOMC high (1.1035) and spent some moments above 1.1050 level, but was rejected and it traded back lower, testing 1.08 on Friday before returning back to 1.09 pivot. The direction is unclear at the moment, 1.0750 - 1.1050 is the range.

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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0970, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Sma #Confluence #South #Bearish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Big Support Levels
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of 2000 - 2008 rally was violated on two occasions, but the pair managed to retrace back above it, so technically it is still holding. If it gives way, the September 2003 low at 1.07606 will come into focus and further down 76.4% retracement (of 2000 - 2008 rally)…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

The pair broke above previous week high and closed above it on two occasions. However, on each following day it reversed and completely erased previous day's gains. The second time it did this was on Friday, in the aftermath of stellar US jobs report. The pair formed a shooting star on weekly chart, but will need to trade below 1.1250 - 1.1275 to confirm the pattern. If the pair won't be able to continue lower after such strong technical and fundamental signals, then that would be pretty bullish.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

The pair started the week with a gap down which was quickly filled and then in another attempt later in the day it also failed to continue past 1.1250. After three days of consolidation, the pair broke higher and ended the week in the middle of the previous week's range. The price action in the pair has been looking more bullish than bearish as the Dollar appears to have been losing steam against most major currencies. I'd say the bias is neutral at the moment in 1.1250 - 1.1500 range. The pair will need to convincingly break either of the extremes to provide direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

It was another range-bound week for the pair in which it mostly remained between the inner posts (1.1300 - 1.1450) of the 1.1250 - 1.1500 range. It slightly violated them on Friday in the sell-off before the Eurozone-Greece talks. It closed the week bang in the middle of the range (1.1375). Now that Greece was given four-month extension to their bailout there's risk of a deeper correction, especially if US inflation and/or GDP data disappoints.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 24 Feb.

Less bearish forecast than mine, but stiil the Euro not looking to get near. I don't think the situation in Greece will have such an impact in the following days. Good indicators!

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al_dcdemo 24 Feb.

Thanks! Yep, a tape bomb from Draghi or US CPI and GDP surprises will be needed to get closer to the target.

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