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Upside in USD/CAD appears more likely

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2720, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Boc #Bullish #Uptrend #Loonie #Overbought #Descending Triangle #Strong Rally #Strong Selling
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. I'd say the retracement has been properly broken as the pair posted second monthly close above that level in March. February 2009 high (1.3064) now comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end …
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: Friday's NFP move appears to be a bit overdone and a pullback to 1.2500 - 1.2550 appears likely, before potential follow through move lower. The direction will also strongly depend on Canadian Ivey PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which will be released on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Range support at 1.2350 is the first strong level to watch.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: Canadian Dollar defied US Dollar strength in the first part of the week, but after huge build-up was shown in Crude Oil Inventories report on Wednesday, the pair reversed sharply. FOMC Minutes, released few hours later, didn't help it. It added another cent on Thursday and early Friday, but another reversal came after much better than expected Canadian Employment Change (though the details were not as strong).

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Focus in the week ahead will be on the BOC meeting on Wednesday. Even though no change is expected in Overnight Rate, the market may be expecting dovish Rate Statement or at least some downside revisions in the Monetary Policy Report. If that doesn't happen and oil continues to consolidate, there's risk that the pair breaks three-month range bottom at 1.2350. Most likely scenario is, however, that the pair remains range-bound.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The pair was the star performer among majors this week (pip and percentage-wise) and also had the greatest weekly trading range. The break of the 3-month range came on Wednesday after the combination of almost hawkish BOC and recovering price of oil sent the pair down to 1.2280. The downtrend continued on Thursday and into Friday, but the pair then recovered by almost 200 pips in a broader USD pullback.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Along with two speeches from Poloz and a couple of US data releases, there's not much on the calendar that may move the pair in the week ahead. Focus will likely be on technicals and flows as longer-term bulls will begin to scale into their long positions and shorter-term bears will be adding to their shorts. Most probable scenario is a retest of the broken range bottom (1.2350) from below and then continuation lower.

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USD/CAD will retrace a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2167, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Boc #Fed #Uptrend #Loonie #Overbought #Descending Triangle #Strong Rally
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke 200 month SMA in January and traded above 50.0% retracement of the January 2002 to November 2007 decline. If it convincingly breaks the retracement then February 2009 high (1.3064) comes into focus, before 61.8% retracement at 1.3462. The broken 200 month SMA is now acting as support.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains till the end of 2014, the pair added further 1100 pips in January 2015 alone. Tech…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: Action in the pair is still range bound (on the daily chart) and is not yet clear which way the descending triangle will break, but most likely it will be the topside. January 30 high would then provide further resistance before 1.3000 - 1.3050. On the downside, strong support between 1.2350 - 1.2400 dominates.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: Last Friday's breakout from descending triangle proved to be real one as the pair continued to trade higher. There was quite substantial pullback on Thursday, but it was quickly soaked up. On Friday, the pair managed to break above January 30 high (1.2799), but then closed just below it. Despite this, technical picture remains bullish.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Price action in the pair closely resembled that in other major pairs, which is not surprising at all, since the whole week unfolded around single main event - FOMC meeting. Small range in the beginning of the week, nearly 400 pip spike lower on Wednesday and then retest of pre-announcement range, which was followed with a broad USD sell-off on Friday. The pair closed just below 50 DMA but above descending triangle "roof" , which was broken last week. If the two levels give way, proven weekly resistance at 1.2350 may be tested next.

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