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NZD/USD to revisit bottom of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Demand #NZD/USD #Trading Range #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 3: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Mostly owing to U.S. dollar weakness, Kiwi proved to be impressively resilient amid market turmoil. It is currently down on the week only against the lowest of low yielders: euro, yen and franc. Declining 2014 - 2015 trendline, reinforced by the broken September - December trendline and 200 DMA, remains the resistance level to watch. If it gives way, 0.69 - 0.70 will come into focus. 50 and 100 DMA are the immediate support levels ahead of 0.65 - 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 5: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 20 Feb.

UPDATE 6: World stock and commodity markets stabilized somewhat along with an overall improvement in risk sentiment. Volatility in major currency pairs fell, particularly in commodity-linked ones. Kiwi ended the week not very far from the opening levels with a similarly unimpressive weekly range - barely over 100 pips. This is most likely just a temporary calm as global macroeconomic landscape remains very much the same.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Kiwi lost almost 100 pips on the day with the daily range more than 150 pips. It posted outside down day which may lead to more losses in the days ahead.

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AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Consolidation #Demand #Fake Breakout #Range #Easing Bias #May 2010 Low #Real Breakout
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July.
Weekly chart:
Demand at 0.75 (level touted …
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Australian NAB Business Confidence (and few other lower-tier reports), Chinese Industrial Production, US retail sales and PPI reports are macroeconomic data points that will be watched in the week ahead. However, technicals are more important at the moment and the main question is how far the Aussie will extend before sellers step back in. If the RBA doesn't cut Cash Rate below 2.00% while the Australian economy recovers, 0.7235 may as well turn out to be the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The most notable event this week was the PBOC yuan devaluation, which impacted the pair strongly. PBOC weakened yuan fix three times: Tuesday (-1.9%), Wednesday (-1.6%) and Thursday (-1.1%). Second adjustment sent the pair to new six-year lows below 0.7250 but it bounced sharply from there and then went sideways for the remainder of the week. The result is a nice hammer on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Apart from Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting, there's nothing of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Australia. Provided that there won't be any further PBOC shocks and that US inflation comes out around consensus, this relative lack of noise may allow for a clearer view of the pair's near term direction. I think the risk is to the upside, though.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Compared to weekly ranges in few other risk sensitive pairs, week in the Aussie was relatively calm. The range was defined on Monday when turmoil in global markets sent the pair within a striking distance from the big 0.70 level. The pair spent the remaining four trading days in that range while volatility has been falling towards the end of the week. It looks as a blow-off bottom, but it may not be.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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