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Bank of England left the official bank rate unchanged. Market had expected a hawkish hold, ideally a green light for a hike in August. That wasn't to be, instead they said the timing of the next hike depends on incoming economic data. GBP/USD adjusted lower but bounced back after U.S. CPI missed estimate prompted some profit taking on long dollar positions. 200 DMA near 1.355 is the bull/bear line in sand.
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Calmer Months for EUR/GBP
The EUR/GBP is generally not a fun pair to trade. During 2015, in 5 of the last 9 months, the pair closed within 100 pips of it's opening price. But this hasn't been the case in August and September. The high volatility across all markets led to a 292 pips gain for the Euro in August. This was followed by another large range in September of 240 pips. In addition to this, as can be seen on the chart below, volatility has been going up.
The 14-day Average True Range has greatly increased, from a l…
The 14-day Average True Range has greatly increased, from a l…
EUR/USD to remain range-bound
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
NZD/USD has further to fall
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what appears to be the continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were broken and the pair is poised to close the month below both levels.
Weekly char…
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what appears to be the continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were broken and the pair is poised to close the month below both levels.
Weekly char…
EUR/USD parity not just yet
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
EUR/USD to remain bullish
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…