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EUR/USD and USA elections

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Josecarlos avatar

interessante

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EUR/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/CAD has been trading to the downside since beginning of the last year when we put in place the major swing high at 1.5600. Based on Elliott Wave cycle we're in the last stage of this sell of, as currently the market has completed a 5 wave sequence. Each impulsive wave is composed by another 5 wave of smaller degree and we can count this wave both in wave III and now in wave V. Right now the current low at big figure 1.3000 has market the low and the final point of this down cycle. Right now …
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Daytrader21 avatar

Update 4: As expect the market found some support at the big round number and the fact that we could break below it suggest that the market is ready to resume upwards. The next level of resistance is at mid figure 1.4150 we need a close above this level for further upside momentum

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 6: Wave C is almost completed and this past week we almost touched our target of 1.4383. We can still see another test of the 1h support at 1.4245 before to see another push higher. Basically I'm expecting an consolidation top here

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 7: Right now as I'm writing this update we're only 6 pips away from my forecast. But since the 1.4340 level is a strong pivot zone which has acted both as support and resistance level we should expect now this level to act as support and we can also see price hovering around this levels on Monday. I see another retest of 1.4340 than another push higher towards 1.4380 during the London session.

WallStreet6 avatar

I really have to study your analysis. I also use Elliot's waves, but never come so close:) Great job and just hope the price doesn't mmove away too much on Monday:) Good Luck!

Mariia avatar
Mariia 2 Ago

Thanks Daytrader21 !well done

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AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Based on Elliott Wave cycle if we count the move that started from the 2011 high (see Figure 1) all the way down to 2015 parity level we can tell that we have done a five wave move and us such we may consider the downtrend in the final stage. Right now we should be looking for a ABC corrective stage that should at least bring the price near the highs of wave IV at around the 1.1300 level.
Major Levels to watch:
[list=1][/list]…
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Update 2: As per my analysis we're now heading towards the 50% fib retracement and as expected we made a temporary top at 1.0900. Next support comes in at 1.0600 which should be a good level to take profits as it can produce a bounce

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: Right now price is reacting off of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement and it may be the case we're not going to head much more lower and resume the current up trend. However we need current low at 1.0600 to hold price. Resistance comes in at previous swing high 1.0900.

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Update 4: As expected AUD/NZD reacted higher from the 38.2 Fib level and we also broke above previous swing high at  1.09000. Right now for next week the 1.1000 big round number should act as support level which later on should be break

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 5: Unfortunately the upside momentum has pushed up this pair right into the major resistance at 1.13000. We should see from here a push lower at least in 3 waves however I'm not sure if there is enough time to reach our target near 1.1000. Even though there are only 200 pips difference current price structure worries me. If Monday we can push lower and close below 1.1180 we can see more downside

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Update 6: The market is already posting a reversal and a break below 1.1150 should see the market accelerating to the downside and eventually to see a retest of the big figure 1.1000

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USD/CAD- 7 years market cycle !

  • Charts: 4 H,1 Day
  • Elements used: CCI , Support & Resistance
  • Current Level : 1.2070
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UPDATE 1: The retracement  i anticipate occurred but was a bit stronger sending the pair 300 pips up. The current trading level is 1.2197 and comes at the peak of this retracement. From the looks of it this is an excellent point from which a fast sell wave can began.

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EUR/GBP Range Mode

Since beginning of 2013 when EUR/GBP has made the final swing high at 0.8800 level we have been trading in a steady way to the downside. Based on Elliott Wave we can count 4 waves of major degree and currently we are in the stage of developing wave IV. Usually based on Elliott Wave principles wave IV can take shape of big consolidation zone, a pause in the trend before the last and final low and the cycle to be completed. Right now wave IV is developing between the 0.7000 big round number and th…
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Update 2: I appears we're running a Flat structure in wave IV this means that we should see the market start moving from here to the downside in a 5 waves of smaller degree. Last week high should act as resistance for now at around the 0.7400 level. Support for next week stands at around the 0.7300 level.

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Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update we indeed moved lower and made a flat structure. Next week should be more range bound action after the recent sell of. Resistance stands at 0.7300 level and support at 0.7200 level

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Update 4: As expected the market has turned lower and right now we're right below 0.7200 former support level which will act as resistance for now. For next week there is still more range action in play before any big move. Support stands at 0.7120 previous weeks low.

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Update 5: As expected we managed this week to get below previous weeks low to trigger the stops below that level. As expected the 0.7120 was also taken out and we have cleared the road to our next big target which is the big figure 0.7000, however our target is just few pips above it at 0.7041, so we should see some range action around this levels next weeks

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Update 6: After we hit last week our target the market has bounced a mere 100 pips putting in place a temporary bottom. This move looks corrective and should fade away. We already hit resistance level at 0.7200 from where price should begin trading lower

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GBPCAD Elliott Wave completed

Based on Elliott Wave GBP/CAD has completed a five wave cycle (see Figure 1) and from here on we should expect a 3 wave correction to unfold. There may be also the case that wave 5 has not been yet completed and can also develop a five wave cycle right now we can count only 3 waves in the wave V, and it appears we're right now developing wave 4 of V. Based on Elliot Wave wave 4 can take form of an prolonged type of consolidation action, and in this regard we may spend some time between 1.8800 su…
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Update 1: It may be the case we're getting an overextended wave V as the sequence is still not finished yet. Wave A has still not been developed and as such we should label as Wave A the first major sell off from the highs. Major support level remains the 0.8700 level

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Update 2: It seems that wave V is overextending it's move and we have yet to see the wave A developing so far. On the weekly chart we have a PB which is a reversal pattern and may be the sign that we're about to retrace. Big support remains 1.9000 big round number and resistance the PB's high at 1.9550

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Update 3: We broke key support zone of 1.8970, our only chance to see a rebound is for previous week's low to hold and to move back up and develop wave B, otherwise wave A length can be much more deeper than was expecting.

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Update 4: Wave A has no completed a 3 wave move of smaller degree and as such we should expect the market to develop from here on wave B and see the market moving back up. For next week support stands at 0.8800 and resistance at 0.9000 big round number

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 5: Unfortunately we continue to expend the downside move and it seems the wave A is still not finished yet. But we are near big major pivot point 1.8700 which should provide some support. Our target will come near the 50% fib retracement from wave A so it's still probable that we will see that target hit

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GBPUSD Fractal Map

Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a 66 months retracement. Not only that the price action looks similar but also time wise this fractal looks similar. This fractal will suggest that eventually we'll have to see another major swing low below 1.3490 before the market to enter in the next p…
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Update 2: As expected from previous update 1.5550 has provided a great resistance level and we had a strong rejection. However we need a break below 1.5300 in order for the long term bearish trend to resume.

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Update 3: This week was a formidable week and it has proved once again that my Fractal map is working as we had an incredible 400 pips sell off from the highs. This move is over exaggerated and oversold at this levels and because we couldn't get a close below 1.5000 big round number it may be the case we will consolidate next week between 1.5200 resistance level and 1.5000 support level

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Update 4: As expected we indeed pushed down, however due to the broad base dollar strength across the board the momentum was strong enough to push below the big round number 1.5000. At this stage I'm afraid that we may not see again 1.500 as we have a strong weekly close below this level and also we're closing below an important support level.

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Update 5: Due to extreme volatility environment we have been trading in a very big range with 1.5000 level providing a good resistance level for the time being. As per my fractal model this should have been expected as we're in the blue circle area (see Figure 2).

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Update 6: Even though we're trading still below 1.5000 big round number our fractal map suggest we should see another move higher. so far the fractal map has been quite precise and in this regard we should follow the map. Next week 1.4800 need to act as support and we should see another false breakout above the big round number 1.5000

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AUD/CAD Range Box Effect

AUD/CAD is one of those currency pairs which are moving in prolonged consolidation and range bound zones. Right now we have established another range between 1.0350 resistance zone and 0.9200 support zone. It is very common to use the middle of previous range box as resistance/support. We can see in our case how 1.0350 was the middle of previous box and now it's acting as resistance level for the current box.
Figure 1. AUD/CAD Weekly Chart
In Figure 2 we can have a look at the daily chart an…
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Update 3: We have already hit our target but because we managed to break below the big round number 0.9500 we should expect more consolidation near this level in coming weeks. Expecting the market to stay in a narrow range between 0.8600-0.8500

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Update 4: Because we're approaching the holiday season and with the low liquidity during this time of the year we should expect a lot of range bound action. In this regard previous swing low 0.8400 level should provide good support and as resistance we should have 0.8580 for the next couple of weeks

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Update 5. The last big swing level is 0.9400 and we didn't managed to break below that level keeping the bull side in control in the short term. During this time of the year with low liquidity and low volume we can expect the market to stay in tight ranging zone and in this regard I don 't think the market is just ready to break below 0.9400 and we may see another attempt to push up towards 0.9500 big round number and ultimately getting closer to my target of 0.9520

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 6: As expected due to low liquidity environment we have been moving in tight congestion zones but we managed to break above the big round number 0.9500. Usually even in the first trading session of the new year the market activity is still dull so I'm expecting the market to stay in this tight congestion between 0.9500-0.9535

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 7: As I'm writing this update we're only 30 pips away from our target but the market seems ready anytime to break the big round number 0.8500 and I'm hopping we're going to get even closer to my target. Since I've posted my forecast the market has made 5 wave of smaller degree, to the downside completing a full wave cycle from 1.0350 highs (see Figure)

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Aussie Elliott Wave Cycle Final Stage

Aussie is in the final stage to complete the Elliott Wave cycle that begin with the 2013 sell off. So far the market has corrected the sell off that started from 2013 with only 2 wave that can be subdivided in another 3 wave of smaller degree. Based on my Elliott Wave count we're in the final stage to complete the whole cycle. Right now wave C is developing and we should expect another 3 waves of smaller degree. We need a break above 0.9400 to complete wave "a" and than a resumption of the curre…
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Update 1: In the short term the upside remains favorable in order to complete another abc sequence which will forma wave C of higher degree. It appears that we're forming a small double bottom at 0.8560 and as long as this level holds expect more upside. For next week resistance is at 0.8800 level.

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Update 2: Although we break below we haven't succeed in breaking the big round number 0.8500 suggesting that the bulls may be still in charge, at least on the short term. Next week if we break below this level it may be the case we're heading lower much more sooner than i was expected.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 3: The bearish trend has started resuming to soon and it may be the case my timing on this forecast to be wrong. However during this time of the year there can be big spikes in prices and as the dollar bull move may look overextended in the short term we can have a correction.

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GBP/USD Fractal Map

Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a 66 months retracement. Not only that the price action looks similar but also time wise this fractal looks similar. This fractal will suggest that eventually we'll have
to see another major swing low below 1.3490 before the market to enter in the next p…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Update 4: Even thought we finally broke below recent support zone at 1.5540 we couldn't break below the big round number 1.5500. Taking in consideration that we're in a big bearish trend it's only a matter of time until we break that level but in order for the momentum to keep pressing lower we need a daily close below that figure.

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Update 5: AS we retested for so many time the big round number 1.5500 has become weaker and weaker and in the end has finally give up and broke through that level. One of a key rule in trading is that if a level is hit for to many times will become weaker and we should expect a break of that level. As I'm writing this comment we have 1h left until the deadline and we're 25 pips away from my target. But we have no reason not to expect the momentum to carry on as usually after a level got hit for so many times when we brake that level the market doesn't look back.

Daytrader21 avatar

Update 6: As expected the momentum was still pushing to the downside and we hit our target to the pip but 10 minutes before the deadline we bounced 13 pips from my target, but as I speak we're back  retesting my level 1.5425 see for more reference picture attached.

Metal_Mind avatar

Nice one buddy. 13 pips is an excelent result. Luck 13 !!

foreignexchange avatar

Congratulations, good job and interesting analysis.
Buona giornata

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