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Stock markets bounced firmly last week. The Dow, Trump's favorite benchmark of presidental success, retraced just over 61.8% and nearly all losses from the previous week, before profit taking set in ahead of the weekend. Barring anything that would spook investors, I think orderly correction has some further to run after some initial consolidation in 10% range, especially if bond yields keep rising.
al_dcdemo's Blog
GBP/USD settles near opening price on a volatile Monday
Quite some volatility for a Monday. Main beneficiary was GBP/USD which thrashed around on "Brexit lunch" headlines. Somewhat toppy price action since Friday may signal a period of consolidation near 1.35. I expect the pair to remain supported ahead of the European Council summit mid-month.
EURo to hit 1.225 by February
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
EURo to climb further up in December
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
Kiwi pulls back after trading above 0.73
Kiwi has been on a quite a bull run since mid May. U.S. dollar weakness appears to have been the main driver. The pair has posted four consecutive green weeks and surged above the channel trendline on Wednesday.
Those prices were not sustained and Kiwi pulled back sharply. A period of consolidation and/or correction seems to be the most likely scenario. 0.7170 - 0.72 is the immediate support band. 0.7225 - 0.7250 is the resistance.
Those prices were not sustained and Kiwi pulled back sharply. A period of consolidation and/or correction seems to be the most likely scenario. 0.7170 - 0.72 is the immediate support band. 0.7225 - 0.7250 is the resistance.
Swissie snaps back to parity level
USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern.
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first h…
Cable consolidates at 1.25 but for how long
Cable is still pretty much disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade as it consolidates near 1.25. Lower highs and higher lows are evident and the breakout, to either direction, will be the stronger the more time will elapse by then.
Depending on how you draw the trendlines, the support comes in near 1.24 and the resistance near 1.2525. I'd say a break to the upside is more likely but 1.26 or 1.265 could prove to be a near-term cap. In any case, 1.25 continues to serve as a good bull/bear line in …
Depending on how you draw the trendlines, the support comes in near 1.24 and the resistance near 1.2525. I'd say a break to the upside is more likely but 1.26 or 1.265 could prove to be a near-term cap. In any case, 1.25 continues to serve as a good bull/bear line in …
Loonie breaks to the upside
Loonie broke above two-month consolidation pattern which spans roughly between 1.2675 and 1.3175. The breakout was accompanied by weakness in oil and came few days after 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA for the first time in a year.
1.33 - 1.3325 (200 DMA, 38.2% retracement of the January - May downswing) will be the first real test and then 1.3450 - 1.35 (September 2015 high, 00's). 1.31 - 1.3150 shall now hold as a support.
1.33 - 1.3325 (200 DMA, 38.2% retracement of the January - May downswing) will be the first real test and then 1.3450 - 1.35 (September 2015 high, 00's). 1.31 - 1.3150 shall now hold as a support.
Yen poised to break above 110
After consolidating for almost a week, USD/JPY appears to be breaking to the upside. Rumours of sales tax hike delay and weaker GDP print to come Wednesday morning are doing the rounds and may have contributed to the yen weakness.
Area between 109.45 and 110, which includes 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing, is the immediate resistance with 50 DMA (currently 110.30) and 76.4% retracement (110.40) the two stronger levels above the big figure. 108.75 - 109.25 shall now hold as a suppo…
Area between 109.45 and 110, which includes 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing, is the immediate resistance with 50 DMA (currently 110.30) and 76.4% retracement (110.40) the two stronger levels above the big figure. 108.75 - 109.25 shall now hold as a suppo…
Conditions in place for additional GBP/USD losses
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair finally stabilized in the third week near 2010 low (~1.4225), after it bounced…
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair finally stabilized in the third week near 2010 low (~1.4225), after it bounced…