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EUR/PLN Still in that Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Lug as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2520, Date: 1 di Settembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Years #Range Trading #Range Box #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5.5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2518. This is around 4.3 percent, a negligible amount for several years of trading in forex.
On the weekly chart above we see the multiple years range the pair has been stuck in. The high of this range is at 4.60 while the low is at 3.95. But these are only the price extremes. The majority of the time th…
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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Five-years-long Range Still in Play

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2318, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2303. That's just above 4.7 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
In addition to this the chart clearly shows that the price remains inside the bounds of this range, with a high at 4.5961 and a low at 3.9661.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks somewhat simil…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr

The EUR/PLN opened April at 4.2164. From here the currency pair rallied to a high of 4.2834, only to fall to a low of 4.2112 few days later.

We are currently quoted at 4.2225, only 93 pips away from my forecasted price, or <0.20% in percentage terms. With a bit of luck, I could get a good prize in this month's contest!

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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5567, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0654, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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More of the Same in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8730, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Timeframes #Turkish Lira #Congestion
The EUR/TRY looks set for more of the same. In order to explain why, let us first look at what transpired in this pair during March. We opened the month near the 3.8500 level as can be seen on the chart below.
From here we rallied all the way up to 4.0168, only to get sold aggressively in the next few days to a low of 3.8825. After a dead-cat bounce the move lower continued until finally we closed March at 3.8687, less then half-percent from the monthly open. The second chart below shows the pic…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr

The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.

The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.

This is only 23 pips away from my forecasted price, so I expect to see a good result in this month's contest!

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AUD/NZD in Range on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0653, Date: 3 di Aprile, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD has been trading in a tight 550 pips range since July of 2016. On our first chart below we can see that the high of this range is around 1.0770 while the low is at 1.0220.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar

UPDATE 1: While the AUD/NZD didn't trade range-bound so far this month, there hasn't been much movement either. We're now quoted at 1.0808, only 155 pips from my forecasted price.

This is a distance that can be overcome in 2-3 days of trading so there is still a chance here! While prices definitively broke the first resistance at 1.0770, they're having trouble breaking above the second important level.

Overall mixed results so far but hoping that mean reversion will kick in soon. That has been the modus operandi for this pair for the past several years.

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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3054, Date: 3 di Aprile, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Singapore Dollar Back to Long-Term Fair Value

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.4037, Date: 3 di Aprile, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Box #Congestion #Us Elections #Trump Bump
After some volatility, especially right after last year's election of Donald Trump, the USD/SGD seems to be coming back to its long-term fair value. On our first chart below we can see that the pair is now trading near the 1.4000 round figure.
This is the same price as back in August of 2015. So 18 months later and the pair hasn't made any gains. We can safely say that the bullish trend is in remission.
On our final chart below we see that even on the lower time-frames the USD/SGD remains undeci…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar

UPDATE 1: The Singapore Dollar is trading at 1.3937 right now, exactly 100 pips away from my forecasted price. The picture on the daily charts shows a range-bound March for this currency pair.

We opened the month at 1.4026, the high (so far) stands at 1.4218 while the low was set at 1.3906. We're now entering a cluster of previous levels that may act to slow down the losses and hopefully cause a spurt up in the USD/SGD.

These levels include 1.3962, last October's swing high, followed by the 1.3840 swing high (resistance turns to support) and the 1.3725 swing low set back in 2015.

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fxsurprise8 29 Mar

UPDATE 2: This for update numero dos! The USD/SGD continues to trade range-bound. We are now quoted at 1.3944, only 7 pips above the price noted in my previous update.

We had some volatility during the last two days for sure, as a high of 1.3985 was hit as well as a low of 1.3914 but ultimately the pair settled back down.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar

UPDATE 3: Some position improvement today. The pair jumped to 1.3989 right now, bringing me somewhat closer to my target.

The USD/SGD is on an upswing the past few days. But overall the mean-reverting nature of this pair continues unabated.

The pair opened March at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. I'm sure you can notice the directionless zig-zag pattern here.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr

UPDATE 4: Mean reversion is still the name of the game in the USD/SGD. This can be clearly seen in the 4 hour chart above that shows the price action during March.

The pair opened the month at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. We closed on Friday at 1.3971.

This is only 66 pips away from my forecasted price. With a bit of luck and range-bound markets I could get a place in the top 10!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr

UPDATE 5: Not very exciting start of the week for the USD/SGD. First we opened at 1.3973, moved up to 1.3982, only to fall back down to 1.3965.

We are currently quoted at 1.3971, only 2 pips below the weekly open. Nothing decisive as of yet this Sunday, we'll have to wait and see what the trading on Monday brings.

While the current price is fairly close to my forecast (<0.50%) this may not be enough for a good prize this month. I will need the USD/SGD to inch higher a bit tomorrow so wish me luck!

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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 118.73, Date: 3 di Aprile, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 31 Mar

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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