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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1125, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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EUR/USD may pull back ahead of ECB and FOMC

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 wer…
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al_dcdemo 4 Dec.

UPDATE 5: ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE. Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.

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al_dcdemo 11 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since. 1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 14 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025. In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060. There's possibility of fake breakouts ahead of the FOMC. Though I'd say the risk is to the upside, at least until 76.4% retracement of the last D1 downswing (~1.1250) is hit.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier European data, released mainly on Wednesday, most likely won't have any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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EURo to remain heavy

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 were cleared. …
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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750. Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Euro lost nearly a cent in the past week against the dollar. Weekly range was worth little less than a cent and a half. The pair started the week on the back foot and convincingly broke below 1.07. It fell to as low as 1.0617, the lowest since mid April. It corrected some of its losses on Thursday, but then Draghi's speech on Friday sent it back to the lows.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead features a couple of European economic indicators, including PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate. U.S. will report several important data points too: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technical bias in the pair is still bearish though probability of a near term correction is rising as we are approaching 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Euro lost about a half of a cent against the dollar this week. The range has been tighter than the previous week's one - it was roughly a cent and a quarter wide. The pair extended its decline past last week's low and also closed there. Since mid October, when Draghi revealed that the ECB will review its current policy, the pair has posted five losing weeks out of six.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Next week is the first big week of December, particularly for the Euro. ECB will likely cut the deposit rate and perhaps extend and/or expand its QE program. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair is holding just above the resistance band, defined by March (~1.0460) and April (~1.0520) lows. We'll not have to wait too long to see whether it holds or breaks.

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EUR/USD to continue to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 2: It was a range-bound week in the pair, though the range was of decent size, nearly 200 pips. One notable characteristics is the convergence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are forming a strong support zone near 1.1150. The pair was testing the zone while surprisingly weaker than expected US payroll report was released and that sent it all the way to the other side of the range.

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al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 3: Following poor NFP report, strongly rally and a decent pullback on Friday, Euro started the week as expected and rose 80+ pips from the open. The rally stalled ahead of resistance band at 1.1300 - 1.1325 (00's, Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Week High). It pulled back and is finding some support between 1.1235 and 1.1250 (H4 200 SMA, 50's, H4 100 SMA, Monthly Pivot Point). If it doesn't turn back up from here, 200 DMA (~1.1170) may come back into focus.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: The pair broke from recent consolidation between 1.11 and 1.13. It gained 130 pips on the week despite that euro was sold strongly against commodity currencies. Combo of three daily moving averages (now at 1.1150 -  1.1200) proved as a solid support while also providing "golden cross" signal. 50 DMA crossed over 200 DMA last Friday, 100 DMA is just about to do the same.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The pair ended the week about 15 pips lower. Starting with sideways action on Monday, volatility picked up on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday when the pair broke above September high (1.1460) and tested 1.15. The test was successful and the pair pared all gains in the remaining two days. Weekly candle resembles a shooting star and implies a retest of recent range bottom near 1.11.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Euro started the week with lacklustre sideways trading in a 40-pip range. Highlight of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and, while many are expecting them to signal further easing, chances are that it won't happen yet. The pair is now trading comfortably above 50, 100 and 200 DMA and looks well supported in the dips in this weak dollar environment.

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EUR/USD to stay in upward sloping channel

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1525, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Calendar for the week ahead is lacking significant Euroarea events, while US top tier events (PPI, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment) are scarce too. Technically, the pair is holding just above 50 and 100 DMA with an additional buffer of 80 pips down to 1.10 level. And, if all that fails, there's channel support zone (1.09 - 1.10) as the last line of defence for the bulls.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The pair spent the first part of this lacklustre week in a tight sideways congestion, slowly grinding up and managed to close post-ECB decline by Thursday. On the same day the pair broke higher and traded up at 1.13 before pulling back. It appears poised to close the week below that level, but it depends on what today's US session and pre-weekend flows may bring.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be big not only for the Euro but for all global markets. FOMC will meet on September 17th and it is quite possible that they will initiate the long awaited tightening of their monetary policy. If that materializes, the pair may find itself testing 1.10 and perhaps below, depending on the rhetorics from the committee. On the flipside, if they pass on the lift-off, the pair may get quick to bump into 1.15.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Euro staged an impressive rally yesterday but then reversed at the end of the European session. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen right after the US market close led to another 60 pip decline and the pair is now trading near yesterday's opening levels. The pair is sandwitched between three important moving averages: 200 DMA above (~1.1190) and 50 and 100 DMA below (~1.1145). Judging by yesterday's strong rejection near 1.13, perhaps the most likely scenario is a retest of the seven-month channel bottom near 1.10.

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al_dcdemo 28 Sep.

UPDATE 8: There's plenty of economic data coming out from Europe this week, but nothing particularly market moving apart from perhaps inflation report. Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures will be the main events from across the big pond. Ignoring DMAs, initial support is seen in 1.1090 - 1.1120 band (Previous Day Low, Previous Week Low, 00's, Weekly Support 1) and resistance between 1.1240 and 1.1260 (Daily Resistance 1, 50's, Monthly Pivot Point).

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EUR/USD to remain range-bound

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Range #Summer Trading #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Next week may well turn out to be one of the most quiet weeks of this summer. Having said that, if the pair continues to gain beyond the trendline drawn off July , August and December 2014 highs (currently near 1.10), the possibility of a larger short covering rally ahead of the September FOMC meeting is not excluded. On the downside, 1.0800 - 1.0850 will have to hold if the pair is to remain in range.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The pair trended higher in the first part of the week and then consolidated in the second. It appears to have decisively broken above the trendline drawn off July, August and December 2014 highs. In addition, it broke 100 DMA and then also 50 DMA and closed above both. Despite slightly extended upper tail, weekly candle looks bullish, particularly in regard to the break of the trendline.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Flash PMIs from Europe and inflation report from the US are main market moving events on the calendar for the week ahead. Technically, the pair will need to stay above both 50 and 100 DMA, if it wants to maintain bullish bias - any pullback towards 1.10 shall be soaked up quickly. The other, perhaps more probable, scenario is a more ranging-like uptrend with a deeper pullback to 1.0900 - 1.0950.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Euro exploded higher on Monday. It rose close to 350 pips from the low of the day, which is the largest daily range since March 18th. It then spent the rest of the week paring gains from the four-day rally. It is back under 1.12  as I type and is poised to close the week near this pivotal level. The result is a big shooting star on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: First week in month is always relevant from the fundamental point of view as we usually get to see a lot of top tier economic data in that period. Week ahead will be particularly important as there's an ECB meeting scheduled too. 50 and 100 DMA, which are currently running just below 1.11, are the support levels to watch in the days ahead. On the topside, 200 DMA is the key level.

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EUR/USD to break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1475, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Greece #Bounce #Downtrend #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Lift Off #Bullish Mode
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 4: Euro gapped down 50 odd pips at the open. This was the third weekend gap in a row. It was smallest of them all and it was also the quickest one to close - in the first hour of trading. After a deal was reached between EU and Greece, the pair rallied 70 pips but stalled ahead of 1.12 and reversed from there to fall 200 pips. It appears poised to close below 100 DMA.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

I think this one will be the biggest miss as don't think it will move above 1.12 within a week. But very thorough analysis!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, more luck next time. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 5: The week in the pair was quite volatile, yet the range was less than 250 pips. The pair continued last week's rally on Monday and extended to 1.1130 before running out of steam. It then fell for three days, setting a low just below 1.09 on Thursday. Friday was the most interesting day as the combination of weaker than expected wage data and month-end flows sent the pair to 1.1115 before it fall all the way back.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be important as we will get the latest NFP report and both ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the US. 50 DMA is proving to be a formidable resistance as it held four times this month. Above that, July 10th high (~1.1215) is the next. Initial support is seen at July 30th low (~1.0890) before range support near 1.08.

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EUR/USD parity not just yet

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1375, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Data Dependence #Lift Off
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
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al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 6: It will be an interesting and possibly volatile week ahead for the pair. The FOMC will meet on 16th and 17th and on the latter day they will publish their latest decision and economic projections, which will be followed by a press conference. The other main story is Greece and the Eurogroup Meetings will be watched closely. Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 7: It was a roller-coaster week for the pair in which both sides struggled for domination. It was the buyers who were having the upper hand most of the time, but the sellers wouldn't let them very high. The main event, FOMC meeting, left us none the wiser and the pair jumped on it as there was nothing particularly Dollar-bullish. The main thing that is holding the pair down at the moment is the uncertainty surrounding Greece.

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al_dcdemo 21 June

UPDATE 8: Next week will kick off with the Eurogroup Meetings on Monday and there are rumours in the market that there is some kind of a deal in the making. We'll also have Flash PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate, while from the other side of the Atlantic we'll get: Existing Home Sales, (Core) Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims. We are currently trading in the middle of ascending triangle with support near 1.13 and resistance in 1.1400 - 1.1450 band.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 9: It was an odd week. On Monday, the pair was unable to rally on good prospects for a deal between Greece and its creditors. After EU welcomed Greek proposal as a "big step forward", the pair started to fall and it extended the decline by 200 pips on Tuesday. And then there was no sell-off despite renewed worries on creditors' rejection of the proposal. From there it was tight sideways trading for the rest of the week.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 10: The talks will continue on Saturday and many officials are expecting a deal, while many of others are growing pessimistic. Both sides are relentless on their positions and it appears unlikely that the talks will be concluded this weekend. Initial support is seen near 50 DMA with more in 1.1000 - 1.1050 band, which includes pivotal 1.1075 level and 100 DMA. Initial resistance may be found near 1.1225.

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EUR/USD to remain bullish

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1486, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Bullish #EUR/USD #Bounce #South #Channel Line #Supply Zone #Strong Momentum #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: There are a couple of important economic releases next week. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday will provide latest insight into US business climate. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday will be watched closely for general indications regarding employment. And Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday, which has the potential to reaffirm or reverse current USD weakening trend. Previous resistance 1.1000 - 1.1050 should now offer decent initial support.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week a bit on a back foot but on Tuesday it reversed sharply, after dipping into strong support (previous range resistance) in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band. It proceeded higher from there to just below 1.14 on Thursday when profit taking in expectation of two big risk events (UK election, NFP) sent it back down to 1.1250. On Friday it fell further and closed the week few ticks above 1.12. Doji-like weekly candle signals indecision, but we will have to wait till next week for clues about further direction.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: There are not a lot of market moving events from Europe: Eurogroup Meetings on Monday, German Prelim GDP q/q on Wednesday. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will provide latest read on US economy. Initial support is seen in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band before 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance: 1.14 then 1.145 before 1.1490 - 1.1530.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: Euro was the best performer among major pairs in the past week (percentage-wise). It gained just shy of 250 pips, while weekly range was almost 350 pips. It started the week on the back foot, but that changed on Tuesday when strong reversal from the lows near 1.11 signaled that the uptrend is about to resume. That was confirmed on Wednesday after another 150 pip surge on weak US retail sales report. The pair followed through with higher highs on both Thursday and Friday, closing near the high.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: The week ahead could prove to be volatile due to both fundamental and technical factors. We have German ZEW Economic Sentiment, European PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and three speeches from ECB President Draghi from Europe, plus FOMC Meeting Minutes, inflation report and few other market moving events from the US. Technically, the pair appears poised to break above 1.15 in the days/weeks ahead with the potential up to 38.2% retracement (of the May 2014 to March 2015 decline) at 1.1810 and 2010 low at 1.1875.

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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0557, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bullish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Channel Line #Key Reversal #Bearish Technicals
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: After NFP debacle on Friday, there's definitely potential for some further upside in the days ahead. Especially if US data continues to disappoint. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday will be closely watched, while FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be subject to even more scrutiny. 50 DMA near 1.1030 and January low at 1.1098 are the first strong resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: In the worst week since mid-January, the pair has lost nearly four cents (392 pips), while weekly range extended more than 450 pips. After it has broken post-NFP high in the early part of Monday's US session, the pair looked poised for a break above March high (1.10522) and continuation higher. That didn't happen and the pair reversed lower with gusto. The decline continued in a familiar fashion with shallow pullbacks, shedding 50 - 100 pips each day until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: There's ECB meeting on Wednesday, so the most likely scenario is that the pair will consolidate on Monday and Tuesday. Support is found at the monthly declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows) near 1.0550 and then at the March cycle-low (1.0462). In the event that the pair corrects to the upside, March 31 low should offer some resistance, before 20 DMA near 1.0850.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: It looked like the pair will challenge 1.0450 low that was set on March 13, but sharp rejection from 1.05 level on Monday was one of the first signs that it won't go that easily. On Tuesday, the sentiment was reversed after weaker than expected US Retail Sales report. It was an uptrend from there till the end of the week, but one with deep pullbacks which demonstrated that there's still two-way interest in the pair.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: In the week ahead, there will be plenty market moving events that could impact the pair: ZEW on Tuesday; Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs on Thursday; Ifo survey on Friday with Eurogroup Meetings to boot. The first strong resistance comes in a way of 50 DMA, which has contained the downtrend since May 2014. Daily close above it would open path to 1.1098 weekly resistance, but false break and continuation lower is just as likely.

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