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Is EUR/USD setting up for uptrend continuation?

EUR/USD has traded in 1.215 - 1.255 range this year, though most of the price action has been contained between 1.225 and 1.245. The pair is currently trading right at the 2017 - 2018 channel support, an important decision area. A break below would target 1.20 and 200 DMA. On the flipside, a break above 1.26 would be big and would target 1.30 initially.
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GBP/USD breaks 1.40, appears not done yet

GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.S. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.
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USD/CAD headed to the channel trendline

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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by an upward sloping channel. 1.28 - 1.30 area is central …
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The world's reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against the yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

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al_dcdemo 13 June

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar staged a sharp rally yesterday after BOC deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said that the bank will assess whether all the stimulus that they have in place is still needed. She was upbeat on economy while brushing aside housing worries. USD/CAD traded down to 1.3325 by the end of the day and is following thorough today. April low (1.3225) is the initial support before stronger one at 2016 - 2017 channel bottom (1.3150 - 1.32). Broken 200 and 100 DMA should as resistance levels in case of a retracement.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 8: Fed's FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: The currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 30 June

UPDATE 10: Canadian dollar has been among the most wanted major currencies in recent days. Hawkish talk by the BOC was taken seriously with markets now pricing a July 12th hike with 70% probability, up from 35% at the start of the week. USD/CAD fell 160 pips on Wednesday alone and 360 pips since the middle of last week. It broke below 2016 - 2017 channel and strong support area between 1.30 and 1.3065 in the process. 1.2825 is the next target. A deeper pullback could extend to 1.31 - 1.3150.

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USD/JPY rally falters ahead of 114.50

Yen has been the weakest performer so far this month but it's still up 3.25% on the year. USD/JPY continues to be driven by U.S./Japan bond yield spreads and risk sentiment, both of which have been supportive in recent weeks.
The pair broke out of a declining channel formation last week but the rally faltered ahead of 114.5. It looks headed for a retest of the channel trendline and perhaps 112 pivot. On the upside, multiple resistance levels are stacked from 114.5 to 116.
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USD/CAD to pull back in May

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by an channel-like upward sloping consolidation formation.…
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UPDATE 6: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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UPDATE 7: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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UPDATE 8: Last week was a relief for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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UPDATE 9: Commodity currencies are back in favour after some hard time at the start of the month. Loonie and Kiwi both pulled from their cycle-lows while Aussie was bought up ahead of the trendline that connects January and December 2016 lows. Much depends on the Fed and their tightening pace as BOC, RBA and RBNZ are likely to delay their hikes for as much as possible. Each of the three pairs is trading in a well established consolidaton pattern and it will take either a broad fundamental catalyst or some idiosyncratic risk to break that.

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UPDATE 10: Canadian monthly GDP came in much better than expected yesterday, at 0.5%. Annualized quarterly GDP came in slightly weaker than expected but still at exceptional 3.7%. That this is nothing but a historical record showed Canadian dollar, which sold off shortly after the release. USD/CAD is currently trading right in the middle of the rising 2016 - 2017 channel and just above 1.35 big figure level. The pair ended the forecast period about 35 pips from the target after it followed the expected price path fairly closely.

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EURo undecided

Euro staged an impressive rally yesterday but then reversed at the end of the European session. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen right after the US market close led to another 60 pip decline and the pair is now trading near yesterday's opening levels.
The pair is sandwitched between three important moving averages: 200 DMA above (~1.1190) and 50 and 100 DMA below (~1.1145). Judging by yesterday's strong rejection near 1.13, perhaps the most likely scenario is a retest of the seven-month cha…
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EURo turns down

Euro followed through on Friday's reversal of post-FOMC gains. After weak pullback, the pair fell 150 pips before bids at 1.1180 stalled it. Given momentum we've witnessed, it's quite possible that the pair will retest seven-month channel bottom (currently near 1.10).
Some resistance may be found at 1.1210 - 1.1220 (200 DMA, Wednesday's low, Yesterday afternoon high) and then in 1.1235 - 1.1265 band (Daily Pivot Point, 50's, Monthly Pivot Point, Friday's low). Support is seen at 1.1180 - 1.1190 …
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EURo gets some relief

Euro bounced off 1.05 big figure level, which is also bottom of a long term channel with the channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows. If that gives way, there might be some support around 2003 low (1.0335) before 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2008 uptrend (1.0070) and parity level (1.00).
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