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USD/CAD to pull back in May

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Cautious Boc #Second Leg
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by an channel-like upward sloping consolidation formation.…
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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 6: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 7: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 8: Last week was a relief for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Commodity currencies are back in favour after some hard time at the start of the month. Loonie and Kiwi both pulled from their cycle-lows while Aussie was bought up ahead of the trendline that connects January and December 2016 lows. Much depends on the Fed and their tightening pace as BOC, RBA and RBNZ are likely to delay their hikes for as much as possible. Each of the three pairs is trading in a well established consolidaton pattern and it will take either a broad fundamental catalyst or some idiosyncratic risk to break that.

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 10: Canadian monthly GDP came in much better than expected yesterday, at 0.5%. Annualized quarterly GDP came in slightly weaker than expected but still at exceptional 3.7%. That this is nothing but a historical record showed Canadian dollar, which sold off shortly after the release. USD/CAD is currently trading right in the middle of the rising 2016 - 2017 channel and just above 1.35 big figure level. The pair ended the forecast period about 35 pips from the target after it followed the expected price path fairly closely.

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Loonie to go nowhere fast in April

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3275, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Neutral Technicals #Net Short Positioning #Support/resistance Area #Cautious Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Su…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great deal of impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: Canadian dollar weakened as U.S. president Trump announces up to 24% percent tax on lumber imports from Canada. 100th day of his presidency is closing in as he struggles to get something done. Wall on Mexico's border is to be postponed until autumn to avoid a government shutdown. USD/CAD rallied about 65 pips from the overnight low of 1.3495, to 1.3560. 50.0% retracement of the 2016 downswing is at 1.3575 and 2017 high is near 1.36. Those are the initial targets. Broken March high (1.3535) is the first stronger support ahead of the big figure (1.35).

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al_dcdemo 27 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Canadian dollar has been under the cosh this week. The currency made a new low for the year after U.S. taxed Canadian lumber and another one yesterday after the talk that the U.S. is about to withdraw from NAFTA. However, Trump agreed with leaders of Canada and Mexico not to terminate NAFTA and the currency staged a rebound. I took only two hours for the USD/CAD to fall from 1.3650 to 1.3530 before buyers stepped back in. 1.3535 (March high) is the immediate support. A stronger one may be encountered between 1.3450 and 1.35. 1.36 - 1.3650 could see some selling.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: The story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against the yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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Loonie to stay above 1.30 in March

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3225, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bearish Technicals #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Area #Cautious Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Su…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar extended its gains this week in most major currency pairs as a rate hike by the Fed and a potentially steeper tightening path is getting discounted. One exception was the euro which gained on the back of constructive tones from ECB and less chances of Le Pen victory in French election. Next week's calendar features three central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, SNB), U.S. inflation, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP. If FOMC fails to hike on Wednesday, the dollar would sell-off hard. To avoid disturbance, a hike is almost a certainty. "Sell the fact" reaction possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 7: As widely expected, the FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 8: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by the Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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