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GBP/USD breaks 1.40, appears not done yet

al_dcdemo Updated 24 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Catalyst #Channel #Ecb Decision #Capitulation Spike #W1 Chart #U K Jobs Report
GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.S. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.
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Cable rally stalls into 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 3 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Breakout #Catalyst #Manufacturing Pmi #D1 Chart
The second leg of post-snap-election-call rally in Cable looks intimidated by the big figure at 1.30. Much better than expected Manufacturing PMI yesterday helped to put in a near-term bottom. A catalyst for a breakout or a failure may come from FOMC today, NFP on Friday or BOE next Thursday.
Positioning in the British Pound futures still suggests an extremely short market. That should give the pair some fuel on a successful break higher, which would target 1.31 initially and put 1.33 into focus…
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Aussie to continue bumping into resistance

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7675, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Catalyst #Daily Chart #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 in November has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline …
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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against all major currencies. What we are seeing could be a beginning of a complete reversal of the Trump trade. Expectations of a big fiscal stimulus have been greatly dampened in recent weeks. Inflation and retail sales reports both came weak on Friday. Having said that, the Fed is likely to continue to normalize monetary policy, and it may pay to buy any dollar dip at some later point. Price action in the week ahead could well be dominated by flows ahead of the first round of the French presidental election.

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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't seen a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: Australian quarterly inflation indicators came in mostly weaker than expected overnight, though Trimmed Mean measure ticked up. Aussie fell just over 30 pips in response. The pair lost similar amount in yesterday's trading, not helped by a decline in gold. The fall stalled just ahead of 0.75 level which, together with 0.7475, forms a support band in the current range. The range itself is straddling the 2011 - 2017 support/resistance line. The upper band of the range is found at 0.7580 - 0.7610 and is reinforced by 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, even though better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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