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USD/JPY to visit 110 in August

al_dcdemo Posted 26 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 110.75, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so called Trump trade. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returne…
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al_dcdemo 19 Aug.

UPDATE 6: This week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That will increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There's been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of this week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what the ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after exceptional Q2 GDP figure. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. jobs & wages report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. USD/JPY is ending the day and the week near highs and above 110. USD/JPY was also my best prediction for September, ending up about half a percent off the target.

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USD/JPY to grind up slowly in July

al_dcdemo Posted 21 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so called Trump trade. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returne…
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al_dcdemo 15 July

UPDATE 5: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Interesting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.145 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.745, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 7: A mixed start of the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 8: Reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't reveal anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but probably not for too long.

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USD/JPY to remain range-bound

al_dcdemo Posted 24 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 110.75, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Momentum #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returned to the 2015 range between 1…
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The No.1 reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against the yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by another 25 basis point.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Fed's FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 19 June

UPDATE 7: After a rally from the lows near 108.80 post FOMC, USD/JPY took a breather on Friday. Whether the rally will continue also depends on Fed speakers and whether they will side more with Kashkari/Kaplan (cautious) or with Yellen (hawkish). 100 DMA near 111.80 is the initial hurdle ahead of the 2017 trendline resistance near 112.50. 200 DMA (110.70) is the immediate support . 110 - 110.50 area should now hold if bulls are to remain in control. Otherwise, we'll probably see a retest of the year's low near 108.15.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 9: Since post-FOMC move from 108.80 to 111.80, Yen's been trading in an 80-pip range. BOJ released Summary of Opinions from their most recent meeting which confirmed that the bank is not planning any tightening in monetary policy just yet, at least not publicly. USD/JPY has been sandwiched between 200 and 100 DMA, and whichever will give way first will suggest direction for the next leg. An upside break appears more likely at the moment with 112 and 112.50 the targets. Conversely, a break below 111 could see a retest of 110.

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USD/JPY has yet to prove a return to uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Correction #Momentum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016. It effectively recouped most of that year's losses and briefly returned to the 2015 range between 1…
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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Widely expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 16 May

UPDATE 6: Yen has been the weakest performer so far this month but it's still up 3.25% on the year. USD/JPY continues to be driven by U.S./Japan bond yield spreads and risk sentiment, both of which have been supportive in recent weeks. The pair broke out of a declining channel formation last week but the rally faltered ahead of 114.5. It looks headed for a retest of the channel trendline and perhaps 112 pivot. On the upside, multiple resistance levels are stacked from 114.5 to 116.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, the dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It's Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was better for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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Yen to consolidate near 110

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 110.25, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Correction #Momentum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016. It effectively recouped most of the last year's losses and briefly returned to 2015 range between 1…
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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against all major currencies. What we are seeing could be a beginning of a complete reversal of the Trump trade. Expectations of a big fiscal stimulus have been greatly dampened in recent weeks. Inflation and retail sales reports both came weak on Friday. That said, the Fed is likely to continue to normalize monetary policy, and it may pay to buy any dollar dip at some later point. Price action in the week ahead could well be dominated by flows ahead of the first round of the French presidental election.

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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected data from China, released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 28 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The BOJ kept policy unchanged at this week's meeting. They bumped up growth forecasts but slightly downgraded inflation. Japanese data overnight confirmed continued weakness in household spending while unemployment rate fell to the lowest on record. U.S. Advance GDP is the event to watch later today. USD/JPY gapped up at the start of the week on better risk sentiment after the first round of the French election. Buyers stepped in before the gap was filled and sent the pair up to 50 DMA. 111.80 - 112 is the initial resistance on the way to 113 (channel top). 110 is a support.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, even though better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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Yen may visit 110 in March

al_dcdemo Posted 20 Feb. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.25, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Correction #Momentum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair rallied more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016. It effectively recouped most of the last year's losses and briefly returned to 2015 range between 1…
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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, the FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended the week higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look soggy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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al_dcdemo 3 Apr.

UPDATE 10: After falling more than 500 pips in March, USD/JPY appears to have put in at least a short term bottom above 110. As new fiscal year begins in Japan, yen appreciation pressure is expected to abate and, coupled with demand from carry traders, the currency may find itself offered in April. The pair is likely to encounter some resistance near 50 DMA, 100 DMA and could top out near December - March trendline. The pair didn't quite conformed to the expected price path in the first part of March but it did better in the second one and is about to end the forecast period near the target.

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Yen may trade towards 110 in the month ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Jan. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Correction #Momentum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair added more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016. It effectively recouped most of the last year's losses and briefly returned to 2015 range between 11…
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al_dcdemo 10 Feb.

UPDATE 6: U.S. stocks rallied to new record highs yesterday after Trump said he is releasing "something phenomenal in terms of tax" in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Bonds and the dollar followed suit. USD/JPY rose more than 100 pips in the N.A. session. Bulls gained the upper hand in the big battle near 38.2% retracement of the election rally. 114 is the initial resistance and then stronger one between 50 DMA and 115.50. Staying above 113 would maintain bullish picture.

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al_dcdemo 11 Feb.

UPDATE 7: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two Fed rate hikes this year.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is rising and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in the markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. USD/JPY once again bounced off of 38.2% retracement of the Trump rally. The pair continues to be driven mostly by U.S./Japan yield differentials.

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USD/JPY uptrend to continue in 2017

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.75, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of 2016. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big 100 …
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed members. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session trading.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about half a cent but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Can USD/JPY close the year in the green?

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.25, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of this year. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big …
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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 19 Dec.

UPDATE 7: USD/JPY rose to the highest level since January on the day after the FOMC decision, adding nearly 400 pips in two days. Tomorrow, the BOJ concludes its two day meeting and, while no policy change is expected, there was some talk about the bank rising its yield target. Today's pullback in the pair probably reflects some position squaring ahead of the meeting and into the year-end holidays. 117 is the immediate support with the stronger one between 115 and 116. On the upside, the next target is 119.5 - 120.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 10: Even though there are holidays in many countries today, traders have been eager to get on board of USD/JPY move, which does seem to have at least some potential still. The pair jumped 50 pips in two hours as European session got underway. 115.50 - 116 held on Friday and is the first stronger support area to watch before 114.50 - 115. Last week's high (117.80) is the initial resistance. A successful break would target December high (118.65) and then 119.50 - 120.

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Yen carry trade is back

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 106.25, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 9 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my opinion.

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al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The dollar rallied 150 pips against the yen on Monday as traders scrambled to get on board of the latest move. Trump's proposed fiscal stimulus in form of tax cuts and infrastructure spending worth several $tn are leading markets to price in a steeper path of the federal funds rate. Japanese GDP came in better than expected. That supported the Nikkei and the pair. Now even more so, U.S. dollar based investors are paid to hedge yen exposure. Technically, 38.2% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 downswing at 109.25 is the next target and then the big 110 level.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after the U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 8: USD/JPY rose 200 pips yesterday in the first four hours of N.A. trading. (Core) Durable Goods Orders report was better than expected while Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales missed expectations but still came in solid. Later, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed broad support for a December hike. The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement) is the next target. 109 - 110 should contain a deeper pullback.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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