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AUD/CAD Little Changed in Decades

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Set como análise AUD/CAD, Alvo: 1.0048, Data: 1 de novembro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box
The AUD/CAD is trading little changed in decades, as you can see on our first chart below. There is a fundamental reason for this, both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to no major price move against each other.
But let's drill down a bit. On our next chart below we can see what has been happening inside that small rectangle marked …
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Finally Some Calm for the Loonie?

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Jun como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.2954, Data: 1 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #USD #Oil #Volatility #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Range #Brexit
Could we finally see some stabilization in this pair? A usually calmer currency, the USD/CAD has seen unprecedented volatility in the past two years, mainly due to oil swinging around wildly. Oil prices fell to a low of $25 this January only to roar back with a 100% gain to $50 dollars per barrel.
But long-term the Loonie is usually a calm pair. Further more on the 4 Hour chart above we can finally see some signs of stabilization and a range-bound market. Once the oil volatility dies down I expe…
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Seven-Year Range in AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Jun como análise AUD/CAD, Alvo: 0.9647, Data: 1 de agosto, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Commodity #Range Bound #Commodity Currencies
We're written about this pair in previous TA posts. What makes this pair interesting for us is that its composed of two commodity currencies, AUD and CAD. Both Australia and Canada are big commodity exporters. Most commodities tend to move in large bull/bear cycles. This means that most of the time the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar will move in tandem. Exhibit number one, weekly chart below.
Notice how for the past seven plus years this pair has been range-bound. We even added a 200-…
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More of the Same for AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Postado 31 Maio como análise AUD/CAD, Alvo: 0.9466, Data: 1 de julho, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #Oil #AUD/CAD #Commodities #Gold #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Metals #Commodity Currencies
May has been fairly uneventful for the AUD/CAD currency pair. While we had a relatively large range of over 300 pips, we just closed the month at 0.9466, only 69 pips away from the open.
On a long-term perspective (monthly chart below), we can see that the AUD/CAD just ended a period of high volatility. While one month of indecisiveness is good, on the chart we can see that these calming periods usually last much longer, multiple months and even years sometimes.
Both the AUD and CAD are commodit…
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fxsurprise8 1 Jul

A slow climb higher. This is how June can be characterized in the AUD/CAD. We opened the month around 0.9470 and we're currently quoted almost 200 pips higher at 0.9648.

The total monthly range is still high (>300 pips) but most of that was a Brexit-related spike that is slowly being eaten away. With the contest closing soon, I will need a sharp sell-off in this pair in order to hit my forecast.

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Calmer Month for Canadian Dollar

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Abr como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.2552, Data: 1 de junho, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Trends #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Oversold #Calmer
The USD/CAD had a wild ride for the past year. Initially it rallied strongly on US Dollar strength then fell as Oil (a major CAD export) recovered. On the first pic we can see that after a the large decline the charts are finally flashing oversold. Furthermore we've now ticked up from the 20 Stochastic level and heading higher, added confirmation that we may see an end to the losses.
An added supporting factor for a bounce higher is that the long-term trend is still up. On the second chart we ca…
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wisdom_consultant 25 Maio

maybe...

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USD/CAD to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Postado 31 Mar como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.3840, Data: 1 de maio, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Rally #Reversal Pattern #Canadian Dollar #Oil Price #Stochastic
The Canadian Dollar has been one of the big winners from the rally in oil prices this year. The USD/CAD saw most of the post-Fed December gains evaporate and is currently trading at 1.2986, over 1600 pips below the January highs at 1.4688.
Notice the Stochastic indicator on the daily chart below. It has been in oversold territory for over one month now since late February. But things may be changing, notice how the indy is finally turning back higher above the 20 level, signalling a potential r…
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SvetLena 31 Mar

good

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Loonies to Catch a Break

fxsurprise8 Postado 31 Dez como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.1621, Data: 2 de fevereiro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar
The Loonie got sold as commodities prices (especially oil) got clobbered this year. The pair lost 180 pips in December alone. But cracks are starting to show in the oil/CAD relationship. As we can see from the charts below, the USD/CAD stayed flat since December 15th.
But Oil continued to make new lows. Since December 15th the black gold fell by close to 5 percent. This signals that lower oil may not translate into CAD losses in the future. A look at the daily chart shows the Stochastic Oscillat…
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Volailtiy in the Loonie to Go Down

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Nov como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.1428, Data: 2 de janeiro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The Loonie experienced a lot of volatility during the past few months. Traders sold Canadian Dollars as oil prices plummeted 33% in 4 months. Canada is a large producer and exporter of oil. The USD/CAD rallied from a low of 1.0620 on July 3rd to a high of 1.1466 on November 5th.
Since then however, prices have stalled. The pair even reversed some of the losses, falling to 1.1191 on November 21st. The last two days have brought us renewed selling after OPEC producers didn't take any action to cur…
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Loonie to Fail Test at 1.1200

fxsurprise8 Postado 30 Set como análise USD/CAD, Alvo: 1.1190, Data: 3 de novembro, 12:00 GMT  em #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Usdcad #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The USD/CAD has a stellar September that saw it rally 326 pips. Prices are currently pushing right on the 1.1200 round figure.
This is somewhat of an important milestone for the currency pair. Back in March of this year, prices spiked at 1.1278 then fell over 600 pips. Given the strong rally so far I don't expect a major selloff but I do think that the gains for the USD are overdone. Thus I'm betting on prices being subdued below 1.1200.
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5 Comentários
Stix avatar
Stix 1 Out

Best wishes for October. :) :)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 1 Out

Yes!!! I support you) And have a good day!!) 1 October)

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 27 Out

While the 1.1200 level didn't hold, the rally slowed down substantially in October. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.1250, 60 pips away from my target. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday may push the pair back below 1.1200.

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fxsurprise8 29 Out

Good Canadian figures and a weak US Dollar pushed the USD/CAD to my target...and then the pair fell some more to completely overshoot 1.1190. We are currently trading at 1.1138, still a long ways of from 1.1190

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fxsurprise8 30 Out

The FOMC decision helped my ''position'' by jump-staring a US Dollar rally. The US Central Bank issued a surprisingly hawkish statement, upping its assessment of the US economy. According to the FOMC, there has been a substantial improvement in the jobs outlook and the underlying strength in the broader US economy.

The USD/CAD moved up from 1.1130 to 1.1224 in the aftermath of the Fed statement. Since then the pair has weakened somewhat and is currently trading at 1.1196, just 6 pips away from my target!

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