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Cable offered

al_dcdemo Updated 25 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #50 Retracement #Golden Cross #Big Figure #50 Dma #200 Dma #H1 Chart #62 Retracement
Cable topped out at 1.5930 last week and has been on the way south since the beginning of this week, falling in all three sessions so far. Previous three swings on a daily chart were 600 to 700 pips wide, so if one was to project that into the future, the current swing should extend to ~1.53.
But there's potentially very strong support zone sitting in between: historically proven 1.5450 - 1.5550 band with 50 and 200 DMA (the former is about to cross over the latter - a.k.a. Golden Cross), 50.0% …
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Cable the strongest

al_dcdemo Posted 18 June  in #Trader's blog #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #European Session #Inflation Report #Labour Market Report #200 Wma #50 0 Retracement
Cable had a great run as it rose in the last seven out of eight days. It shrugged off weak inflation report, but the labour market report (particularly wages data) and hawkish BOE sent it higher in yesterday's European session. The gains were compounded after the Fed offered too little for the Dollar bulls.
Next resistance may come in between 1.5870 and 1.5900 (200 WMA, 50.0% retracement of July 2014 to April 2015 decline, 1.59 level) before stronger into 1.60. Broken 1.58 level shall now act as…
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Cable keeps gaining

al_dcdemo Updated 16 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fomc #Greece #Trading Range #Safe Haven Flows #Dip Buyers
Cable has been incredibly resilient lately and some of that may also be attributed to the safe haven flows due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece. It fell today on weaker than expected inflation report, but buyers were waiting in the dips and soon took the pair to new highs for the day, week and month.
Tomorrow is the FOMC day and the pair will likely remain in this upward grinding trading range at least until then. When it breaks, first stronger support may come in between 1.5450 and 1…
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Cable catching up on Euro gains

al_dcdemo Posted 10 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #USD Weakness #200 Dma #Previous Week High #European Low
In another bout of USD weakness today, Cable rallied strongly, adding nearly 200 pips from the European low (~1.5370). It broke Previous Week High (~1.5440) and 200 DMA (~1.5505) in the process. While it will most certainly close above the former, the latter is still being fought for. Though daily closes are not as important as weekly.
Relative to the price action from the past several days, the rally appears somewhat overdone and the pullback to 1.54 will likely be needed before continuing up. …
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Cable breaks 200 DMA

al_dcdemo Posted 12 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Industrial Production #200 Dma #Weekly Resistance 2 #Manufacturing Production #Monthly Resistance 1
Cable rallied again after surprise Industrial and Manufacturing Production data:
Industrial Production (MoM): 0.5% vs. 0.1% expected, 0.1% previous
Industrial Production (YoY): 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected, 0.1% previous
Manufacturing Production (MoM): 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.5% previous
Manufacturing Production (YoY): 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected, 1.2% previous
It has broken above 200 DMA in the process and stalled ahead of Monthly Resistance 1 just above 1.57. If it can hold above the 200 DMA, Weekly Re…
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Cable continues uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 11 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Weekly Resistance 1 #200 Dma #Daily Resistance 2 #UK Election
Cable is continuing its post-election (and pre-election) rally and has just broken above February high and 38.2% retracement of the July 2014 to April 2015 decline. Looking at momentum on any timeframe, it'd be difficult to say that this is the top.
Next layer of resistance is seen in 1.5600 - 1.5610 band (1.56 level, Daily Resistance 2, Weekly resistance 1) before 200 DMA just below 1.5650.
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Cable ends up higher after UK election and NFP

al_dcdemo Posted 8 May  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #GBP/USD #Cable #Gap #UK Election #Exit Polls
Cable gapped up when UK election exit polls were released at 21:00 GMT yesterday, the hour which marks the start of the new (US session close based) daily candle. The pullback was quickly bought and the pair continued higher overnight as results were trickling in and confirming exit polls. It was unable to decisively break above 1.55 and subsequently sold off to 1.54 before NFP report.
The most important and watched US economic report was mixed but solid:
Non-Farm Employment Change: 223K vs. 224…
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Cable gives back gains

al_dcdemo Updated 1 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Rally #Short Squeeze #Shooting Star #Manufacturing Pmi #UK Election
It turned out that a rally in Cable in the beginning of the week was just a massive short squeeze as the pair turned lower yesterday and continued today after much weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI.
It posted long shooting star on the weekly chart, which implies further losses in the week ahead. That scenario is now strongly supported by weaker fundamentals and UK election to come next week is not helping it either.
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3 Comments
Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 May

Nice post, but beware this week of the Sterling, the next will be a jump over the creed. The Springboard is working fine in bracketing, but I think its the last bottom spring touch. This negative sentiment on the Sterling is a diversion to wait and see the election result next Thursday. And suddenly, everything in the UK will be positive and you will just notice it at the 1.56 level.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 May

To sum it up, SHORTING the cable for a revisit to the 1.45 is a huge loss, the same way people I know shorted the EURO @ the 1.08 for a revisit to the 1.04, as the so-called Analysts were advertising the idea of the 1.00 figure, what happened since then, while people got distracted it boomed to the 1.12, a gain of 80 points(800 pips). Now, you will think many times before going Long again on it at this level. QE was the reason for the Euro and the Yen, but what was it for the Sterling?. Take a look at the Cable two weeks before Scottish Independence and see where was the Cable.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 4 May

I'm bullish Cable, especially if US data continues to disappoint, but I think it will retest 1.50 and perhaps run stops below it, before continuing higher.

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GBP/USD will pull back a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5367, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Resistance #Reversal #Cable #Bottom #Momentum #Pullback #Monthly Trendline #Pre Election Uncertainty
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. The pair reversed strongly from there and is about to close the month above …
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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: The pair was among the losers this week as it lost nearly two cents from the open. It fell every day of the week and produced some nice tradable patterns along the way. (Un)fortunately we must trade at the right hand side of the chart and and cheers to all those who were selling the rallies. The pair ended the week some 50 pips above the pre-election levels, closing near the low.

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al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 10: It's that week of the month when we get the PMIs from the UK's three most important sectors: Services, Manufacturing and Construction. As a bonus, BOE will meet for their latest monetary policy decision. Data from across the Atlantic (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be equally important. Initial support (1.5250) is followed by 50.0% retracement of the April 13th to May 14th rally (~1.5150) with 50 and 100 DMA just below that. First resistance may come in near 1.5350.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! Really close- less than 100 pips to go with all the volatility on the market. I think the manufacturing PMI will support the cable, so will be even closer:)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 May

Thanks! That's what I'm expecting too, let's hope it plays out that way. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 31 May

Good analysis : )

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USD weakness continues

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Gdp #Cable #Daily Resistance 2 #Richmond Manufacturing Index #Cb Consumer Confidence #Weekly Resistance 2
Weaker than expected UK GDP, that was release this morning, proved to be just another dip buying opportunity in Cable. Decline to 1.5175 was short-lived and the pair was back to pre-release levels in less than one hour.
The pair made new high and flirted with 1.53 before US open. It is now breaking above the big level, after stream of bleak data from the States continues with Richmond Manufacturing Index (-3 vs. -2 expected) and CB Consumer Confidence (95.2 vs. 102.6 expected).
There's some imme…
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