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Multi-Decade Range in AUD/CAD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9686, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Range #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box #Congestion
In trading you learn early that history matters. Both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to ranges between the two. The first chart below demonstrates this clearly.
On the second chart we see that the post-US election rally has completely reversed with the pair surrendering almost of gains.
Because all of the above I think that the AU…
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AUD/CAD Little Changed in Decades

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 1.0048, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box
The AUD/CAD is trading little changed in decades, as you can see on our first chart below. There is a fundamental reason for this, both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to no major price move against each other.
But let's drill down a bit. On our next chart below we can see what has been happening inside that small rectangle marked …
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Finally Some Calm for the Loonie?

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2954, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD #Oil #Volatility #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Range #Brexit
Could we finally see some stabilization in this pair? A usually calmer currency, the USD/CAD has seen unprecedented volatility in the past two years, mainly due to oil swinging around wildly. Oil prices fell to a low of $25 this January only to roar back with a 100% gain to $50 dollars per barrel.
But long-term the Loonie is usually a calm pair. Further more on the 4 Hour chart above we can finally see some signs of stabilization and a range-bound market. Once the oil volatility dies down I expe…
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Seven-Year Range in AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9647, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Commodity #Range Bound #Commodity Currencies
We're written about this pair in previous TA posts. What makes this pair interesting for us is that its composed of two commodity currencies, AUD and CAD. Both Australia and Canada are big commodity exporters. Most commodities tend to move in large bull/bear cycles. This means that most of the time the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar will move in tandem. Exhibit number one, weekly chart below.
Notice how for the past seven plus years this pair has been range-bound. We even added a 200-…
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More of the Same for AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9466, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #Oil #AUD/CAD #Commodities #Gold #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Metals #Commodity Currencies
May has been fairly uneventful for the AUD/CAD currency pair. While we had a relatively large range of over 300 pips, we just closed the month at 0.9466, only 69 pips away from the open.
On a long-term perspective (monthly chart below), we can see that the AUD/CAD just ended a period of high volatility. While one month of indecisiveness is good, on the chart we can see that these calming periods usually last much longer, multiple months and even years sometimes.
Both the AUD and CAD are commodit…
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fxsurprise8 1 July

A slow climb higher. This is how June can be characterized in the AUD/CAD. We opened the month around 0.9470 and we're currently quoted almost 200 pips higher at 0.9648.

The total monthly range is still high (>300 pips) but most of that was a Brexit-related spike that is slowly being eaten away. With the contest closing soon, I will need a sharp sell-off in this pair in order to hit my forecast.

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Return to Mean Reversion for AUD/CAD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9548, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The AUD/CAD is a strange beast. Comprised of two commodity currencies, sometimes this pair is calm as it can be, while other times it goes completely crazy. We seem to be in the second phase right now. On the daily chart below the AUD/CAD has entered into heavily oversold area. The Stoch is flashing extreme values of 7. Below 20 is oversold according to traditional technical analysis.
But pairs can remain oversold long after they've hit 20 on the Stochastic. Why bet on stabilization here? Well l…
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fxsurprise8 25 May

This pair is trading mixed with a slightly bearish bias. By the middle of May a low of 0.9360 was hit. Since then we bounced higher to a 0.9510, close to my forecast.

But selling in the past two days has brought us back down to 0.9365. Hopefully we will again bounce from here as we did last time.

As I noted in my initial post, the AUD/CAD is comprised of two commodity currencies. Because of this mean-reversion is the name of the game, most of the time anyway.

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wisdom_consultant 25 May

very great, my friend!

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fxsurprise8 26 May

Not much progress today in the AUD/CAD. We're up by only 11 pips to 0.9374. This is about 1.8% below my target, so plenty of more room to cover.

With a three-day weekend coming up in the States and Yellen's testimony tomorrow (as well as US GDP) traders seem unwilling to take on risk. This is the picture across the majors as well (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) not just on this pair.

We may have to wait for these risk events to pass before we see a sustained movement in currency markets.

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fxsurprise8 27 May

Lot of volatility in the AUD/CAD this Friday with no conclusion. We opened at 0.9374 and  rallied to a high of 0.9423 by mid-day.

From here however heavy selling took us back down to the daily open and below. We closed at 0.9353.

The wild gyrations give me some hope that we'll see strong movement in AUD/CAD that could take the pair toward my target.

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Calmer Month for Canadian Dollar

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2552, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Trends #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Oversold #Calmer
The USD/CAD had a wild ride for the past year. Initially it rallied strongly on US Dollar strength then fell as Oil (a major CAD export) recovered. On the first pic we can see that after a the large decline the charts are finally flashing oversold. Furthermore we've now ticked up from the 20 Stochastic level and heading higher, added confirmation that we may see an end to the losses.
An added supporting factor for a bounce higher is that the long-term trend is still up. On the second chart we ca…
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wisdom_consultant 25 May

maybe...

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USD/CAD to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3840, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Rally #Reversal Pattern #Canadian Dollar #Oil Price #Stochastic
The Canadian Dollar has been one of the big winners from the rally in oil prices this year. The USD/CAD saw most of the post-Fed December gains evaporate and is currently trading at 1.2986, over 1600 pips below the January highs at 1.4688.
Notice the Stochastic indicator on the daily chart below. It has been in oversold territory for over one month now since late February. But things may be changing, notice how the indy is finally turning back higher above the 20 level, signalling a potential r…
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SvetLena 31 Mar.

good

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Volailtiy in the Loonie to Go Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1428, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The Loonie experienced a lot of volatility during the past few months. Traders sold Canadian Dollars as oil prices plummeted 33% in 4 months. Canada is a large producer and exporter of oil. The USD/CAD rallied from a low of 1.0620 on July 3rd to a high of 1.1466 on November 5th.
Since then however, prices have stalled. The pair even reversed some of the losses, falling to 1.1191 on November 21st. The last two days have brought us renewed selling after OPEC producers didn't take any action to cur…
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Loonie to Fail Test at 1.1200

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1190, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Usdcad #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The USD/CAD has a stellar September that saw it rally 326 pips. Prices are currently pushing right on the 1.1200 round figure.
This is somewhat of an important milestone for the currency pair. Back in March of this year, prices spiked at 1.1278 then fell over 600 pips. Given the strong rally so far I don't expect a major selloff but I do think that the gains for the USD are overdone. Thus I'm betting on prices being subdued below 1.1200.
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5 Comments
Stix avatar
Stix 1 Oct.

Best wishes for October. :) :)

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Olga18375 1 Oct.

Yes!!! I support you) And have a good day!!) 1 October)

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fxsurprise8 27 Oct.

While the 1.1200 level didn't hold, the rally slowed down substantially in October. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.1250, 60 pips away from my target. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday may push the pair back below 1.1200.

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fxsurprise8 29 Oct.

Good Canadian figures and a weak US Dollar pushed the USD/CAD to my target...and then the pair fell some more to completely overshoot 1.1190. We are currently trading at 1.1138, still a long ways of from 1.1190

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fxsurprise8 30 Oct.

The FOMC decision helped my ''position'' by jump-staring a US Dollar rally. The US Central Bank issued a surprisingly hawkish statement, upping its assessment of the US economy. According to the FOMC, there has been a substantial improvement in the jobs outlook and the underlying strength in the broader US economy.

The USD/CAD moved up from 1.1130 to 1.1224 in the aftermath of the Fed statement. Since then the pair has weakened somewhat and is currently trading at 1.1196, just 6 pips away from my target!

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