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EURo rallies after ECB surprise

al_dcdemo Updated 11 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Draghi #Ecb Meeting #Bullish Picture #D1 Chart
In terms of easing monetary policy, ECB did much more than most market participants were expecting. After 120 pip decline in the first 15 minutes, the pair struggled to hold below 1.0850, a sign of strong demand at those prices.
The pair made new intraday low 10 minutes after press conference kicked off, started to retrace some of the move, and then rocketed higher after Draghi said that he sees no need to cut rates further, surging 400 pips from the low to the high in a couple of hours.
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USD/CHF rally is gaining strength

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Parity #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs…
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al_dcdemo 18 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Swissie broke above the March high (~1.0130) in yesterday's trading and rose to the highest level since SNB abandoned EUR/CHF floor on January 15th. Year's high (~1.0290) is the next target. After that, some resistance is expected into 1.05 level and then at July/August 2010 highs near 1.0650. Support is expected at 1.01 and more at the parity level (1.00).

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Swiss franc was the loser of the week as it lost a cent and a quarter against the dollar. Weekly range was worth a cent and three quarters. The pair is still carried by technical momentum that has been in place since the current upswing began in mid October. The level the pair is trading at is the highest since SNB decided to discontinue EUR/CHF floor in January.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: As is usual, there's little of note on the calendar for the week ahead coming out from Switzerland. U.S., however, will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair is still in a breakout mode. It closed last week above March high (~1.0125) but below year's high (~1.03). The latter will be watched closely in the coming days.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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Is USD/CHF setting up for a break higher?

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Turmoil #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart:
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 high…
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al_dcdemo 26 Oct.

UPDATE 7: After weak pullback in the first hours of the week, Swissie extended its rally and is set to post eight consecutive day of gains. To the delight of swing traders, these kind of multi day streaks are very frequent in major currency pairs recently. The pair is currently trading a couple of pips below the September high (~0.9840). Break above would flush some stops and open door to the August high (~0.99), near the last big figure before parity (1.00). 0.98 may prove to be the first stronger support on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 30 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now. September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Rather than just continuing higher in the week ahead, I think the pair will retrace some of its recent gains first. 38.2% retracement of the October 15th to 28th rally comes in near 0.9775 and 50.0% retracement above 0.97. 50 DMA is currently running just below but will most likely rise above that in the days ahead. 0.9750 is the potential take off point. If it fails, 100 and 200 DMA will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great Analysis : )

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al_dcdemo 2 Nov.

UPDATE 10: The pair started the week sideways, continuing the tight range from the last week. It is currently trading near 100 month SMA, a level that capped the pair twice earlier this year. Conditions for a sustained break above the level seem to be in place. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction as price action in this contest period conformed well to my expectations and ended with a great outcome.

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Has GBP/USD just bottomed out?

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5670, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Confluence #Retracement #Downtrend #Bullish Picture #Weekly Resistance Cluster #Robust Recovery
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed almost all sub 1.55 losses in February and looks poised to break higher. In the event that the downtrend resumes, July 2013 low at 1.4813 should provide initial support and, if that gives way, there's little to stop the decline until May 2010 low at 1.4228.
Weekly char…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: In the worst week since September 2014, the pair lost more than 350 pips. Retest of 50 DMA and 1.52 was expected, even brief violation of both levels, but after stellar US jobs report it became clear that this is more than just a normal 50% pullback. It all looks set up for a break of 1.4950 and retest of 2013 lows at 1.4813. Chances of this being a double-bottom buying opportunity are slim as Dollar strength is overwhelming and the pair is also being dragged down by the Euro.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: After hardly retracing 50% of last Friday's losses, sellers regained the upper hand and the pair began to slide. On Wednesday it decisively broke year's low at 1.4950 and then followed through on Thursday. On Friday it busted 2013 lows and closed the week at the lowest level since 2010. Picture is bearish and there's not much support on charts until June 2010 (1.4346) and May 2010 (1.4228) lows.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Cable began the week with a positive tone, but then reversed lower (to 1.4635) and was trading below weekly opening levels ahead of FOMC meeting. Massive short squeeze that followed sent it to 1.5161, making daily range worth whopping 527 pips. After retest of pre-FOMC levels, the pair added 250 pips on Friday and managed to close above January low (1.4951). 50 day DMA just above 1.5150 will provide decent resistance, before 100 DMA near 1.53, if the pair is to continue higher.

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WallStreet6 31 May

Very good analysis! Stll some pips to go, but if the manufacturing PMI comes out good on Monday who knows.

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