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EURo to move above 1.20 in October

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Bullish Fundamentals #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Capitulation Spike
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. Division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of the week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Euro opened marginally lower today with Catalan crisis still simmering. ECB meet this week and are expected to scale down asset purchase program while extending it through the next six or nine months. A dovish surprise seems more likely than a hawkish one. 50 DMA is acting as a resistance since late September. Potential head and shoulders top with the neckline near 1.17 projects towards 1.13. The neckline is reinforced by 100 DMA ahead of the next stronger support at 1.1615.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar the yen.

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EURo to break 1.20 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1925, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Bullish Fundamentals #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Capitulation Spike
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, Euro consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five mont…
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al_dcdemo 9 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Three major central banks met this week. On Tuesday, RBA kept interest rates unchanged but they were upbeat on the economy. On Wednesday, BOC delivered second hawkish hike in the row. Markets expect one more hike from them this year. ECB stood pat on Thursday but will likely announce further tapering of asset purchases in October. Next Thursday, SNB and BOE meet. No change is likely to be expected from SNB while the franc is trading below 1.20 against the euro. BOE will hike rates at some point in the future but that won't be this year.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely too.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 9: German election concluded largely as expected. Angela Merkel will serve her fourth term as Chancellor, however, her party (CDU) will have to seek coalition partners. In addition, a far-right party (AfD) will be represented in parliament for the first time since WW2. EUR/USD didn't like it and opened with about 50-pip gap lower. The gap was closed by the end of the Asian session but the pair headed back towards the lows as Europe opened for business. 1.18 - 1.185 is the current range support and 1.205 - 1.21 the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 10: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected Fed last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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EURo to remain well bid in October

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1325, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Rally #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Bullish Fundamentals #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding above the long-term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place on September 21th showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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USD/CHF enjoys SNB support

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9525, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Neutral Technicals #Bullish Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: Apart from a couple of low tier economic data points (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer) there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead from Switzerland. Main risk events come from across the Atlantic: (Core) Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting, Advance GDP. Resistance is seen near 0.9750 (March 31th and April 22th highs) and then 0.9850 (April 13th high). Strong support remains in place at 0.95.

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WallStreet6 28 July

Also about 100 pips away! Great! If the dollar appreciates this week it may be very close!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

We'll see, it has to go down a bit. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: The pair continued its steady uptrend throughout the week. The most prominent feature of this uptrend are deep pullbacks, but they were all soaked up quickly as evident by the lower tails on recent daily candles. Even strong sell-off on Friday was reversed in just a couple of hours. It was the third week in the row that the pair ended up higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: As is usual for the first week of the month, we'll get a slew of economic data and it could get quite volatile. NFP report is the most important data point as the Fed may soon be hiking rates based on labour market strength. Demand may start coming in near 0.96 while the strong 0.95 level remains in place if we get any (un)expected sell-offs. Initial resistance is seen near 0.9725.

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