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NZD/USD will continue to edge up

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Broadening Formation #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected data from China overnight has in part been the driver of Kiwi strength today as it reversed all yesterday's losses and some before pulling back in the last couple of hours. My thinking was that the pair would reverse lower after running stops above 0.69 but it remains well supported in the dips and continuation higher seems more likely at this point.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for these positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead features Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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GBP/USD to remain well bid

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5725, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #200 Day Sma #Corrective Rally #Broadening Formation #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Manufacturing Production and BOE meeting from UK; PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be the fundamental highlights in the week ahead. June low (1.5170) is the immediate support before May low (1.5089) and 1.50 big figure level. Should the pair bounce, initial resistance may be found at 1.5250 - 1.5275 (Friday high) and then stronger at 1.5325 - 1.5350 (July low, 200 DMA).

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The theme of the week was the correction after nine-day decline in the previous two weeks. BOE held its second meeting in the new format and, despite recent worries and volatility in global markets, they weren't dovish and that lent the pair additional support as it retraced almost 50% of that downswing. Weekly range has been just over 300 pips and will likely stay that way, save for any fireworks in the US session.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Apart from eagerly awaited FOMC meeting, in which the Fed may begin to normalize their ultra easy monetary policy, there are three important risk events from the UK on the calendar for the next week: inflation, labour market and retail sales reports. 1.55 is the initial resistance before 1.5580 - 1.5600 (61.8% retracement, 00's) and 1.5675 - 1.5700 (76.4% retracement, 00's). 1.54 and then 1.5350 are the first two support levels.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 7: BOE speakers (Cunliffe, Carney), lending data, current account, GDP (final revision) and Manufacturing PMI will be the main fundamental events from the UK in the week ahead. The US will report CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. The pair broke September low (~1.5275) on Friday and, despite failure to close below it, that implies some further losses with the near term potential to 1.50.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Cable recorded nine consecutive days of losses in late August / early September. With eight losing days in a row, the pair is set to repeat the "feat". However, it has started the day pretty well and, unless US traders sell it below the day's opening price, that may mark a beginning of an upswing. Intraday support is seen between 1.5115 and 1.5135 (Previous Week Low, Low Of Day, Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1) and resistance at 1.5185 - 1.5205 (High Of Day, Daily Resistance 1, H1 100 SMA, 00's, Previous Day High).

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