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NZD/USD to catch-up with AUD/USD losses

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6575, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 9 June

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 2.25%, released relatively upbeat statement and then governor Wheeler didn't give an impression that they would want to cut anytime soon. Many in the market expected a cut or at least a strong hint of a cut in August. They didn't get that and the pair jumped 75 pips on the decision and added another 50 in the hours after. It broke above the 2015 - 2016 rising wedge and stalled near 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 downtrend. 100 WMA is the next resistance while 0.70 shall now act as a stronger support.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will be likely felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the European Union. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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RBNZ may start weighing on NZD/USD

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6875, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning #Broad Trading Range #Sharp Rejection
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a hefty part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 16 May

UPDATE 6: Following weak Chinese data over the weekend, both Aussie and Kiwi opened with a gap lower. The former rose from the open while the latter, whose gap was smaller, traded lower in the early Asian session before rising too. This is the second time that Kiwi bounced from the strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band, which includes February highs and 100 DMA. The topside has been capped by 50 DMA recently. Whichever DMA will give way first will likely determine the direction of the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a huge surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were decent for a Monday however and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 27 May

UPDATE 9: Kiwi has been contained between 50 DMA and 100 DMA for three weeks. It may look a bit heavy with lower highs and lower lows but what it has been carving out is a falling wedge which is generally a bullish pattern. Strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band (February highs, 100 DMA) has been holding well with 0.6650 - 0.6670 (late March low, 200 DMA) the next important area. Initial resistance at 0.6775 is followed by 0.6825 (April - May support/resistance line, 50 DMA).

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NZD/USD will continue to edge up

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Broadening Formation #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected data from China overnight has in part been the driver of Kiwi strength today as it reversed all yesterday's losses and some before pulling back in the last couple of hours. My thinking was that the pair would reverse lower after running stops above 0.69 but it remains well supported in the dips and continuation higher seems more likely at this point.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for these positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead features Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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NZD/USD to revisit range bottom in March

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6375, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Indecision #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 10 Mar.

UPDATE 5: In an (un)surprising move, RBNZ cut the official cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50% and hinted on additional cuts which will depend on data. Reasons for the cut are weak global growth outlook, high exchange rate and declining inflation expectations. Technically, the bank prevented Kiwi from rising above October and December highs, at least for now. After 150 pip fall, the pair is stalling ahead of confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA. 0.65 - 0.6550 is the next stronger support band to watch.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Kiwi so far gained about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. will resume trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 30 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Remarks in the speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen sparked a dollar sell-off across the board. Recent hawkish tones by a number of Fed speakers had markets expecting something a bit less dovish than the latest FOMC statement. The winner of the day was the Kiwi, which rose 80 pips before the event and about 70 pips afterwards. We can expect some buy stops to be triggered at and above 0.69 but probably plenty of new supply into 0.70.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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