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EUR/GBP Returns to the Mean

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8818, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #United Kingdom #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Mean Reversion #Brexit #Negotiations
The EUR/GBP is slowly returning to the mean. In August the pair dropped from a high of 0.9261 to close the month off at 0.8815. After the large gains during the past few months the pair is finally losing some ground.
But as can see on our next chart, the long-term trend on the weekly chart is still very bullish. These two conflicting trends as well as the congestion area the pair is in right now (see rectangle on chart one) should keep prices in range. Thus I'm betting on more range for the EUR/…
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EUR/GBP to Calm Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.9209, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #United Kingdom #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Stochastic #Brexit #Negotiations
The EUR/GBP continues its strong rally. In August the pair advanced by another near 200 pips move and is currently resting above the 0.9000 round figure.
But as you can see on the chart above, indicators are already flashing red. The weekly Stochastic Oscillator is printing values over 90, indicating a very overbought market. On our next chart below we see a similar situation on the monthly chart.
Here too the (5,3,3) Stochastic is printing values over 90. I also added 3 lines to indicate what h…
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Cable to Rally Post-Brexit

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2989, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #UK #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Rally #Us Dollar #Bottom #Average True Range #Brexit
I expect Cable to rally in the aftermath of the start of Brexit negotiations. First reason for this is the fact that the worst is now behind the UK. Markets have pummelled the Pound in the ground already discounted a lot of negative scenarios. Thus a positive surprise could led to large GBP rally.
The second reason is our first chart above. Notice the three bottoms pattern. Some may see an irregular Head and Shoulders formation. In any case it looks like the bears have checked out and the bulls…
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EUR/GBP Bounces at Support

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.85216, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels #Brexit
The EUR/GBP finally ended its post-Brexit slump by bouncing at the support area noted on the chart below. Price bottomed out at 0.8304 during December, just below the 0.8327 support and above the 0.8248 support level. With the downtrend over, I'm not willing to bet on major increases in this pair yet.
The reason why can be seen on the picture below. During December we moved between a high of 0.8304 and a high of 0.8666. This is a fairly small amount for a major currency. But what really paints t…
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fxsurprise8 31 Jan.

The EUR/GBP opened the month at 0.8510 and is now quoted at 0.8579, not even 70 pips higher. The range-bound behavior this continues for a second month.

As we said in our original post, during December the pair had an open to close range that was at only 54 pips.

The current price is only 60 odd pips away from my target, so hopefully we'll get a small drift lower into month end.

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Pound to Head Toward 1.3000

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2989, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #GBP/USD #Resistance #Cable #Us Dollar #Pound #Average True Range #Brexit
It’s been a rough two-and-half years for the Pound. The pair lost over 5,000 pips from its highs back in July 2014. But even during the middle of that carnage we had some ‘dead cat’ bounces. On our first chart below notice how we get these small rallies whenever the Stochastic Oscillator dips below 20 and then recovers and heads higher.
With hindsight these small uptrends may not seem like much on first glance, keep in mind that this is a monthly chart. The duration of one TA contest cycle enco…
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 1 Dec.

Excellent stuff !

TInna avatar
TInna 1 Dec.

well done!

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EUR/GBP Stalls at Resistance Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8966, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #United Kingdom #Europe #Resistance #Cable #Rally #EUR/GBP #Pound #Brexit
The long-term trend in the EUR/GBP is undoubtedly up, prompted by the weaker Pound and exacerbated by Brexit. But the rally is hitting against some serious road-block in the face of several multi-year resistance levels. First we have the 2011 high at 0.9086. This is followed by the 2009 high at 0.9407 and finally we have the 2008 high at 0.9804.
During the past few weeks the pair topped out just below this second one of the resistance levels above and is now heading down. Take a look at the shor…
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Time for a Reversal in Cable

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2888, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #United Kingdom #GBP/USD #Resistance #Us Dollar #Pound #Average True Range #Brexit
The Pound has been one of the worst performing currencies this year. Hit by speculative shorts after Brexit, the GBP can't catch a break despite a series of surprising economic news. But the technicals may be pointing to a turn of the tide. On our first chart below we see two important signals.
First, the GBP/USD printed lows below 20 on the Stochastic Oscillator (oversold territory) and is now rallying back above it. This is a bullish signal. Two, we are seeing a bullish divergence between the …
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EUR/GBP Nearing Resistance Cluster

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8657, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Resistance #Volatility #Rally #EUR/GBP #Pound #Atr #Brexit
After a long rally that saw the EUR/GBP advance in 8 out of the last 10 months, the pair may finally hit a roadblock. We are nearing a cluster of resistance levels. They start with 0.8724, last month's high, continue with 0.8768 (August 2013 high) and end with 0.8814, a four-year high for this currency pair.
But there are signs that the bull run is slowing down. On the daily chart below notice the constant decline in the Average Daily Range. This is a proxy for volatility. Furthermore since reac…
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Brexit Support Will Not Hold

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2516, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #United Kingdom #GBP/USD #Support #Cable #Us Dollar #Pound #Average True Range #Brexit
Cable has been relatively stable post-Brexit. The lows hit shortly after the event have yet to be broken. But the bears are not giving up yet! On our first chart below we can see that prices have made two attempts post-Brexit to crack the 1.2800 support. So far the level is holding but with each new test, the odds increase that we will see a break.
On our next chart below we can see that the long-term trend for GBP/USD has been down. We are currently quoted over 4,000 pips below the highs noted…
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Buying the Pullback?

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3829, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #UK #GBP/USD #Cable #Pound #Britain #Pullback #Brexit
With the Brexit panic subsiding , the GBP/USD could finally find a bottom. On the 4 Hour chart below we see an interesting formation. We were in an upward trend which then stalled on some post-Jackson Hole Dollar gains. But now we're moving back up again. This could be a classic buy the pullback opportunity.
Another reason why more gains may follow is the oversold situation in Cable. On the weekly chart below we can see how unrelenting and one-sided the selling has been since 2014. We're now dow…
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