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GBP/USD testing support area at 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 18 July  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #D1 Chart #Brexit #Cpi Inflation #Jerome Powell
GBP/USD fell nearly 300 pips so far this week. Yesterday's Brexit headlines and today's (leaked?) weaker than expected CPI inflation figures for June were among the drivers on the GBP side of equation. Couple that with stronger USD since Fed Powell's testimony. 1.30 is the immediate support ahead of 50% retracement of the 2016 - 2018 upswing near 1.2930.
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GBP/USD sells off with U.K. government in disarray

al_dcdemo Posted 10 July  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Manufacturing Production #D1 Chart #Brexit #U K Politics #Theresa May
U.K. PM May's "third way" Brexit plan, which looked good on Friday, led to a series of resignations on Monday, including Brexit minister David Davis and foreign minister Boris Johnson. May said that "Brexit means Brexit" does really mean Brexit, but not everyone seems to share the same opinion. GBP/USD lost about 180 pips before bouncing, but weaker Manufacturing Production data, released today, doesn't help it.
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Cable jumps as May calls a snap election

al_dcdemo Posted 19 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #D1 Chart #Brexit #U K Pm May #Snap Election
U.K. PM May called a snap election yesterday and the pound rallied in response. Even though this means more uncertainty in the short term, it is expected to give the government a confidence vote and enough time to focus on Brexit negotiations and implementation.
Cable posted a huge candle on the daily chart. Some consolidation or correction is possible in the days ahead. December high (1.2775) could be the first stronger support. If the rally continues, 1.30 is the next target.
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Cable stabilizes near 1.225

al_dcdemo Posted 5 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Economic Data #D1 Chart #Brexit
After falling from 1.275 through December, Cable stabilized near 1.225. Resignation of EU ambassador Rogers highlights hard Brexit concerns but better than expected economic data has kept the pair afloat.
1.22 is the initial support before October lows near 1.21 and then 1.20 big figure level. The pair has to overcome 50 DMA to challenge 1.25 and trendline, drawn off of September and December 2016 highs.
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Cable to recover after the flash crash

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2425, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Capitulation Move
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 16 Nov.

UPDATE 6: British pound has been withstanding U.S. dollar strength well and is basically flat compared to the beginning of the last week. Weaker inflation figures failed to send the pair lower yesterday. There's more U.K. data coming in today (jobs and wages) and tomorrow (retail sales). 1.25 is the current bull/bear line in sand. 50 DMA is the first resistance level to watch and then the next one in 1.275 - 1.28 band. Some stronger demand could be expected between 1.23 and 1.24.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Cable broke above 50 DMA and traded up to 1.2530 in the first half of yesterday's Asian session before pulling back below the big figure in the second half. There was no follow-through and the pair was then sold down to 1.2380 by the middle of the day. 1.2350 - 1.24 is the initial support followed by a stronger one near the three-week range bottom at 1.23. 50 DMA, which currently runs just below 1.25, is the first tougher obstacle to overcome on the upside before 1.2525 - 1.2550 and 1.2675 - 1.27 bands.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: Start of the new month has seen British pound bulls step up. No particular driver has been cited and the pound rallied despite weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI. That speaks of underlying strength as the pound is bought across the board with GBP/JPY move particularly notable. Cable closed above 50 DMA and 1.25 level yesterday what makes today's move a logical continuation. November high (1.2675) is the immediate resistance but a stronger one may come in closer to July low and 100 DMA, near 1.28. Initial support is expected at 1.26.

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Cable falls on renewed Brexit worries

al_dcdemo Updated 3 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #D1 Chart #Brexit #Article 50
PM May announced yesterday that the U.K. will invoke article 50 by the end of March 2017. That will leave the country two years to negotiate terms of its exit from the E.U. with the rest of the union's members.
Cable opened about 50 pips lower from late Friday's levels. It extended the decline in the European morning, to below August low (~1.2865), before pulling back. July low (~1.2795) is the next target. 1.2950 - 1.30 seems like a good sell zone.
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Elens94 3 Oct.

good

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al_dcdemo 4 Oct.

Thanks :)

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Cable to stay in the current range

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3225, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Demand #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks i…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place on September 21th showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. A gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB QE programme. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars two notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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AUD/USD may surge towards 0.80 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7825, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #High Yield #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Brexit #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 wee…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in every G7 major currency pair. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Eric Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Lael Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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GBP/USD to retrace part of the Brexit decline

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Record Daily Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: PM May announced yesterday that the U.K. will invoke article 50 by the end of March 2017. That will leave the country two years to negotiate terms of its exit from the E.U. with the rest of the union's members. Cable opened about 50 pips lower from late Friday's levels. It extended the decline in the European morning, to below August low (~1.2865), before pulling back. July low (~1.2795) is the next target. 1.2950 - 1.30 seems like a good sell zone.

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USD/JPY to remain offered

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 98.75, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to l…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in all G7 major currency pairs. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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