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USD/CAD preparing for the next leg

al_dcdemo Posted 6 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Breakout #Momentum #Range Trading #D1 Chart
USD/CAD has been trading in a relatively tight range during the past two weeks. 1.28 - 1.2810 is the range support and 1.29 - 1.2910 the resistance. A case could be made for continuation in either direction but largely depends on whether U.S. dollar can sustain its momentum. The longer the range lasts, the more orders accumulate on both sides and the stronger the breakout move, or so the theory goes.
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GBP/USD supported ahead of the U.S. inflation report

al_dcdemo Posted 13 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Breakout #Trendline Resistance #D1 Chart #Brexit Talks #U S Inflation Report
U.K. and E.U. were said to be very close to Brexit implementation period deal yesterday, which prompted a 50 pip jump in GBP/USD. The pair is trading right at the January - February trendline. A successful breakout would lead to a retest of 1.40. If U.S. inflation report doesn't deliver today, it will make the job much easier.
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USD/JPY breaks to the lowest level since 2016

al_dcdemo Posted 14 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Breakout #W1 Chart #U S Inflation Report
USD/JPY broke 2017 low overnight but it may not be over yet. The breakout is quite significant (longer-term trendline) and there's U.S. inflation report coming up which could send the pair even lower in any case. Weak numbers, USD/JPY falls. Strong numbers, bond yields rise, stocks fall further, USD/JPY falls. The next major support to keep an eye on is 61.8% retracement of the 2016 upswing, around 106.5.
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EUR/USD breaks above 1.21

al_dcdemo Posted 12 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Breakout #EUR/USD #Mn1 Chart
European currencies outperformed today. EUR/USD gained about 100 pips and is poised to post a highest weekly close in three years. 1.2165 (50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline) is a big area. A break above would open door to 1.23 - 1.2330 (LT trendline support, 2008 low) and put 1.25 (LT trendline resistance) into focus.
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USD/CHF back above 0.98

al_dcdemo Posted 10 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Breakout #USD/CHF #Cot Report #D1 Chart
USD/CHF broke above the pivotal 0.98 level, after spending one week below it. Position in the futures market is net short, but not at extreme levels, so there might still be some upside potential. Trendline, drawn off of October and December highs, is the area to keep an eye on.
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Loonie breaks 1.25

al_dcdemo Posted 5 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Breakout #Labour Market Report #D1 Chart
USD/CAD broke and closed below 1.25 yesterday and stalled there. The level is part of a wider 1.24 - 1.25 support area. Today's labour market reports from both U.S. and Canada will have a big say in whether we'll get a continuation or a pullback from here.
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EUR/USD looks poised for a break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Breakout #EUR/USD #U S Jobs Report #W1 Chart
EUR/USD is testing 2017 high (1.2090). A successful break would target 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline (1.2170), and then 2008 low (1.2330). U.S. jobs and wages report tomorrow could provide fuel for a larger move.
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Aussie to retrace some more in November

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7775, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pa…
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al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

UPDATE 5: AUD/USD fell 50 pips overnight, after the release of weaker than expected Wage Price Index. 38.2% retracement of the 2016 - 2017 upswing now looks properly broken. 0.75 - 0.755 area is the next major support. It includes 2016 - 2017 trendline, the big figure, and is backed by 50.0% retracement.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: AUD/USD posted an outside day last Tuesday as it bounced from 2016 - 2017 trendline. One week later, the pair is trading about 75 pips higher, after sellers emerged ahead of 0.7650. Private Capital Expenditure report on Thursday will likely provide some fuel for either direction.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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0.77 to hold Aussie in October

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7925, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pa…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 16 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The biggest Australian retail sales miss in four years and dovish talk by RBA's Harper appears to be have been already swept under the carpet. Latest inflation data from China and surging copper prices are supporting the current momentum. AUD/USD break below 0.78 level didn't last for long as previous strong resistance area between 0.77 and 0.78 proved to be a strong support now. 0.80 is the next target with 50 DMA the initial resistance. 0.78 should now hold or else we might see another attempt at the lows.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a shorter-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 26 Oct.

UPDATE 8: A weaker than expected inflation report sent Aussie to a new low yesterday. Today's comments by RBA's Debelle were seen as dovish, particularly the one that CPI was overstated by around 0.25% ahead of yearly reweighting of the index. The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar yen.

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Aussie to trade above 0.80 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8075, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pai…
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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 6: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was the pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Having briefly traded above 0.81 on the initial reaction, Aussie was sold strongly after FOMC decision. It extended losses on the following day as RBA governor Lowe said they are in no hurry to hike rates. China ratings downgrade and metal prices falls didn't help the currency either. AUD/USD broke and closed below both shorter-term trendline and 50 DMA yesterday but pulled back towards the trendline today. 0.80 should now cap it, if we are to see continuation lower. 0.78 - 0.785 would be the next target.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: At today's meeting, RBA decided to keep the cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement is similar to the previous one, highlighting both upside and downside risks. The paragraph on the Australian dollar is unchanged. The reaction was to sell Aussie on lack of any clear hawkish signal but, since the statement didn't deteriorate, selling didn't extend much lower. Area between 100 DMA and 0.78 held and European traders took AUD/USD back above the big figure. 0.7825 - 0.785 is the initial resistance.

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