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USD/CHF to continue to drift lower

al_dcdemo Publié 25 juillet comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9425, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Breakdown #Downtrend #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 19 aou

UPDATE 6: The week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That should increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 aou

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 aou

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 aou

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong Q2 GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 sep

UPDATE 10: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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AUD/USD to start the year with gains

al_dcdemo Publié 30 déc comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7425, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Ascending Channel #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 9 jan

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 jan

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Aussie opened with a gap up but promptly lost 50 pips to 0.6925 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6980 - 0.7000. It looks supported since.

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al_dcdemo 14 jan

UPDATE 6: Australian currency continues to be offered. It so far declined more than a cent from yesterday's high, though it has moved mostly sideways during the past couple of hours. Marginally better than expected labour market report didn't manage to turn the sentiment around. Cycle-low, set last September near 0.6910, is within reach of few pips and is an immediate support ahead of the April 2009 low (~0.6850) and 0.68 level. Broken 0.6950 level (also previous day and week low) is now acting as a solid resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 jan

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 jan

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7325, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 déc

UPDATE 9: The pair started the last day of the year on a solid footing, continuing the strength that has been seen throughout both holiday weeks. December's high (~0.7385) is the initial target ahead of 200 DMA (currently ~0.7415) though we probably won't see either of them achieved before next week. Buyers are likely to start coming in at 0.73 and below, keeping the pair well contained.

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al_dcdemo 1 jan

UPDATE 10: Moves on the last day of the year were relatively big, reflecting final adjustments for the year in low liquidity. However, Aussie was not where the greatest action was. It's daily range was in fact the second smallest (~60 pips), behind the Kiwi (~45 pips) - as opposed to Swissie (~155 pips) and Cable (~120 pips). Last bid price before the end of the contest period was 0.72864, that's 38.6 pips below my target (0.7325). A good prediction with decent accuracy.

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foreignexchange 1 jan

Great  Analysis : )
Tanti auguri al_dcdemo
Do you think that the Oil retracement could improve at the opening session the forecast ?

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al_dcdemo 1 jan

foreignexchange Thank you! I too expect some oil strength in the first week of the year. It may definitely lend some support to the Aussie, but won't matter for this forecast though. :)

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EUR/USD may pull back ahead of ECB and FOMC

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/USD, Cible: 1.0975, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 wer…
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al_dcdemo 4 déc

UPDATE 5: ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE. Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.

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al_dcdemo 11 déc

UPDATE 6: Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since. 1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 14 déc

UPDATE 7: Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025. In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060. There's possibility of fake breakouts ahead of the FOMC. Though I'd say the risk is to the upside, at least until 76.4% retracement of the last D1 downswing (~1.1250) is hit.

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al_dcdemo 28 déc

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier European data, released mainly on Wednesday, most likely won't have any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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NZD/USD will be kept in check by the RBNZ

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur NZD/USD, Cible: 0.6675, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Sharp Spike #Sideways Consolidation
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 5: Trade Balance is the only top tier indicator that New Zealand will publish in the week ahead. U.S. will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. 50 and 100 DMA will be the key levels to stay above in the coming days. Near term potential is to 0.6750 while 0.70 may not be unreasonable target over slightly longer horizon.

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al_dcdemo 24 nov

UPDATE 6: Kiwi started the week on the back foot as it pulled back some 60 pips from the opening level before 0.65 level stopped the decline. After briefly trading above 0.66 on Friday, the pair fell back below both 50 and 100 DMA. It looks well supported into 0.65 and if the level holds the pair will be on the way to 0.6750 and, perhaps, 0.70. If the level fails, a retest of 0.6350 - 0.6400 and possibly cycle-low at 0.6235 will become probable.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: 100 pip range might not be considered small in the Kiwi but in relative terms, with regard to price action in recent months, it is. The pair started the week on the back foot but managed to hold above 0.65. It made several attempts at 0.66 on Thursday to no avail and then the U.S. dollar strength on Friday sent it back below both 50 and 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 déc

UPDATE 9: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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AUD/USD consolidating, but higher lows noted

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7275, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 lev…
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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 6: Aussie fell less than 50 pips immediately after much weaker than expected capex report, which was published yesterday. The pair didn't follow through lower but instead went sideways. That may be a sign of strength but it may also be due to thin holiday trading. We'll find out soon enough, when liquidity returns. 0.72 (100 DMA) should hold if the uptrend is to continue smoothly. 0.7150 (50 DMA, Broken Weekly Trendline) may prove to be a decent support in the event of a deeper pullback. 0.73 (Weekly Resistance 1) is the first resistance ahead of 0.7350 (Monthly Resistance 1).

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: After two weeks of gains, Australian dollar lost some 40 pips against the U.S. dollar with the weekly range of 120 pips. The pair started the week with a pullback and then rallied to new highs for the month. It was in the middle of another technical pullback when much weaker than expected capex report hit the wires. Although the impact was not so great at the time, the selling continued until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: There will be plethora of Australian data releases in the next week, including GDP and Trade Balance, along with the RBA meeting. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead features: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Depending on the outcome of aforementioned fundamental events, there is scope for the pair to retest the broken weekly trendline in the days ahead.

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al_dcdemo 30 nov

UPDATE 9: Aussie started the week with a 20 pip drop but it recovered to be around opening levels as I type. Commodities (particularly metals) are down, Chinese stocks too, but there was some encouraging data (MI Inflation Gauge, Company Operating Profits, Private Sector Credit) from Australia overnight. 0.7125 - 0.7150 support zone, that includes Previous Week Low, 50 DMA and broken Weekly Trendline (drawn off of September 2014, May 2015 and October 2015 highs), is crucial. 0.7200 - 0.7225, which hosts 100 DMA, is the immediate resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 déc

UPDATE 10: RBA held rates plus there was some positive data from Australia and China overnight. The pair broke above last week's high in Asian session. 0.73 capped a second wave in early Europe and the pair is currently pausing below the big figure. The pair remained in a broad consolidation during the month of November, finishing just above its mid point, which is consistent with my forecast.

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EURo to remain heavy

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur EUR/USD, Cible: 1.0975, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 were cleared. …
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al_dcdemo 20 nov

UPDATE 4: Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750. Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.

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al_dcdemo 22 nov

UPDATE 5: Euro lost nearly a cent in the past week against the dollar. Weekly range was worth little less than a cent and a half. The pair started the week on the back foot and convincingly broke below 1.07. It fell to as low as 1.0617, the lowest since mid April. It corrected some of its losses on Thursday, but then Draghi's speech on Friday sent it back to the lows.

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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 6: Week ahead features a couple of European economic indicators, including PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate. U.S. will report several important data points too: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technical bias in the pair is still bearish though probability of a near term correction is rising as we are approaching 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: Euro lost about a half of a cent against the dollar this week. The range has been tighter than the previous week's one - it was roughly a cent and a quarter wide. The pair extended its decline past last week's low and also closed there. Since mid October, when Draghi revealed that the ECB will review its current policy, the pair has posted five losing weeks out of six.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: Next week is the first big week of December, particularly for the Euro. ECB will likely cut the deposit rate and perhaps extend and/or expand its QE program. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair is holding just above the resistance band, defined by March (~1.0460) and April (~1.0520) lows. We'll not have to wait too long to see whether it holds or breaks.

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Yen is holding up well

al_dcdemo Publier 20 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Breakdown #H1 Chart #Symmetric Triangle
The bottom of the symmetric triangle pattern, that was broken last week, has been acting as a tough resistance in the last three trading days. The pair is creeping below it but shows no intentions of turning back down. 50 DMA has crossed below 200 DMA on Friday after it has been below 100 DMA for nearly a month. Last week's breakdown roughly coincided with the cross but the pair wasn't able to produce a significant decline.
Support:
119.35 - 119.40 (Daily Pivot Point, Low Of Day, H1 50 SMA)
119.…
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Yen breaks to the downside

al_dcdemo Mis à jour 15 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Breakdown #Symmetrical Triangle #H1 Chart
Yen has convincingly broken below the symmetrical triangle pattern, that it has been mostly trading in since late August / early September. Dollar weakened across the board yesterday and the pair fell nearly a cent while the daily range was wider than that.
118.25 - 118.50 is the support level to watch and, if it gives way, we may see a retest of the August low just above 116. Area between the pattern bottom (119.75) and its mid point (120) is likely to act as a solid resistance now.
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AUD/USD may consolidate into year-end

al_dcdemo Publié 28 sep comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7175, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Delayed Lift Off
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 0.70 level.…
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al_dcdemo 17 oct

UPDATE 6: The week started with a fake continuation higher on Monday followed by a sharp decline on Tuesday and in the first hours of Wednesday. A rally ensued which took the pair 160 pips higher to 100 DMA ahead of the above-mentioned weekly trendline. That proved to be the top and the pair fell back towards a classical symmetrical triangle consolidaton pattern bottom.

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al_dcdemo 21 oct

UPDATE 7: After trading sideways and ever tighter from the beginning of the week, Aussie broke below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle at the start of today's European session. Next target is October 14th low (~0.72) and then 50 DMA (~0.7160) but the correction may extend all the way to 0.70 - 0.71. 100 DMA has so far held the topside, reinforced by the trendline drawn off September 5th 2014 and May 14th 2015 highs.

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al_dcdemo 23 oct

UPDATE 8: Aussie retested the bottom trendline of the broken symmetrical triangle before it sold off on news that the PBOC cut rates again. While this is generally supportive for risk assets, it is momentarily viewed as signaling a weakness in Chinese economy. 50 DMA (~0.7150) may be a good spot to go long, especially if the Fed sends another dovish message at next week's FOMC meeting.

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al_dcdemo 28 oct

UPDATE 9: Aussie fell nearly a cent overnight, on the back of weaker than expected inflation report. The report came out weaker on all measures and prompted some speculation about next week's RBA rate cut. The pair broke 50 DMA in the process and is currently trading just below it. 0.71 is the next support level to watch. 0.7175 - 0.7200 looks like a decent resistance now.

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foreignexchange 2 nov

Great analysis : )

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