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GBP/USD will pull back a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5367, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Resistance #Reversal #Cable #Bottom #Momentum #Pullback #Monthly Trendline #Pre Election Uncertainty
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. The pair reversed strongly from there and is about to close the month above …
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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: The pair was among the losers this week as it lost nearly two cents from the open. It fell every day of the week and produced some nice tradable patterns along the way. (Un)fortunately we must trade at the right hand side of the chart and and cheers to all those who were selling the rallies. The pair ended the week some 50 pips above the pre-election levels, closing near the low.

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al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 10: It's that week of the month when we get the PMIs from the UK's three most important sectors: Services, Manufacturing and Construction. As a bonus, BOE will meet for their latest monetary policy decision. Data from across the Atlantic (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be equally important. Initial support (1.5250) is followed by 50.0% retracement of the April 13th to May 14th rally (~1.5150) with 50 and 100 DMA just below that. First resistance may come in near 1.5350.

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WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! Really close- less than 100 pips to go with all the volatility on the market. I think the manufacturing PMI will support the cable, so will be even closer:)

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al_dcdemo 31 May

Thanks! That's what I'm expecting too, let's hope it plays out that way. :)

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foreignexchange 31 May

Good analysis : )

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GBP/USD still has room to decline

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5515, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Retracement #Decline #Momentum Deceleration
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The momentum of the decline appears to have been decelerating somewhat. The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: The pair's huge decline was the greatest surprise of the first trading day of the year. It lost 250 pips on Friday, which is the biggest one day loss since May 2010. Again, thin liquidity considerations apply, so we will have to wait till next week for more evidence on whether this was just a blip or something more substantial.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair has well and truly busted the weekly support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) and traded down to almost 1.5. On Thursday it then turned the corner and was also well bid on Friday. It closed the week one cent above the lows of 1.5035. Especially if EUR/USD stages a correction in the days ahead of ECB meeting, further upside in the pair is quite likely.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: The pair set the stage nicely for a possible correction up to 1.55 but then stalled in 1.5250 - 1.5350 region. On Friday, in a bout of USD strength, it broke back down through 1.5150 and closed the week below the level. If it manages to hold above 1.5, there's still a chance of a rebound towards 1.55, especially if ECB doesn't satisfy the markets at the next week's meeting.

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GBP/USD still has room to decline (resubmitted analysis)

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5543, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Downtrend
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:
The chart shows trendline that capped upticks from July earlier this yea…
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update 1: After Friday's much better than expected NFP report the pair sold off to new lows and closed there. This implies new lows in the week ahead. But with year-end coming ever closer and recent price action looking like many players are buying into this pair, additional losses may not extend that much further.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: The pair manged to climb to the daily downtrend line, but wasn't able to close above it. It set itself nicely for a break higher, but more likely it will consolidate around these (or a bit lower) levels ahead of the FOMC next week. If we will get hawkish Fed, confirming that the rate rises are close, we may get decent sell-off and still end up around the target of 1.5543.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: The pair sold off after the FOMC and stopped the decline just two pips below my prediction target of 1.5543. Next day it made some ground back on much better than expected retail sales, but has finished the week on a weaker note. Even though staying in recent range (1.5550 - 1.5750) seems the most probable outcome, one final attempt at 1.55 for the year, is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

Update 4: The pair has broken the 1.55 level, but has then retreated to close back above the big figure. It has closed the week right around my prediction target of 1.5543. It is very much possible that the following week will remain range-bound, so that's good starting point.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

Update 5: The first three days of New Year holiday shortened week were quite lively, but the pair remained pretty much range-bound and ended up slightly above levels from last Friday. There was some strong EUR/GBP selling on Wednesday and, as EUR/USD, the cross closed the year on yearly lows. That lent some support to the Cable and we will see in next couple of days whether it will follow the Euro lower.

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EUR/USD nearing important confluence (resubmitted analysis)

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2215, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bottom #Downtrend
Monthly chart:
Price is nearing confluence of:
1. Long term trendline that supports lows of years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2012.
2. 200 month SMA.
3. 50% retracement of the October 2000 to July 2008 uptrend, which contained price in years 2008, 2010 and 2012.
The confluence zone ranges between 1.2150 and 1.2250.
Weekly chart:
It has been pretty much one way market since the beginning of the downtrend in early May. There was single 400 pip correction (~25%), while in other cases price wasn't a…
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update1: Last Thursday ECB announced that any further measures will be implemented next year and the pair rallied strongly. But next day stellar NFP report pushed it to the new low as market now sees Fed hikes even closer. The pair closed the day and the week on the lows and that looks very bearish. But we will have to wait for the next week to see if there will be any follow through.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: There wasn't any follow through from the NFP report last week. Not only that, the pair closed last three trading days and a week above daily downtrend line. That is bullish. It might be some position squaring before next week's FOMC meeting, but if the Fed does not deliver (drops "considerable time" and reaffirms hawkish bias) we could see a massive short squeeze.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: After trading briefly above 1.2550 on Tuesday, the pair turned around and it was on its way lower before the FOMC. Despite some initial confusion, the Fed didn't disappoint the bears and the pair continued to sell off till the very end of the week. Technical picture is not pretty. The pair closed on new yearly lows, below the 200 month SMA, posting bearish engulfing weekly candle. Although all this suggests more losses in the days ahead, given that the last two weeks are expected to be quiet, returning to the recent range and consolidation appears to be more likely.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

Update 4: The pair didn't return to the recent (1.2250 - 1.2550) range, but instead made it to new marginal lows and closed the week below 1.22. Provided that it stays range-bound throughout the next week, the target of 1.2215 is well in reach.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

Update 5: It is not surprising at all that the pair closed the year a couple of pips from the yearly low. In addition, it posted a yearly bearish engulfing candle. That's two strong bearish technicals. But since market never goes up or down in a straight line, we may see some upside first.

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