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AUD/USD Touch the bottom line of an upward channel

hunlion Posted 29 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7820, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Bottom #Channel
Hello Guys ,
The AUD/USD Shows a down trend for the last three months and now it reached the bottom of an upward channel at 0.7580 and if this level hold the pair from going going further toward the level 0.7200 . it will go upward to reach the top of the channel at 0.8300 for next three months wich means it will reach the level 0.7820 by juin 2018.
A strong bulish close on the daily chart
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hunlion 27 May

The pair brock lower line of the channel , went down and it is trying to go back and test the breakpoint at 0.7640-0.7660

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Cable to Rally Post-Brexit

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2989, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #UK #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Rally #Us Dollar #Bottom #Average True Range #Brexit
I expect Cable to rally in the aftermath of the start of Brexit negotiations. First reason for this is the fact that the worst is now behind the UK. Markets have pummelled the Pound in the ground already discounted a lot of negative scenarios. Thus a positive surprise could led to large GBP rally.
The second reason is our first chart above. Notice the three bottoms pattern. Some may see an irregular Head and Shoulders formation. In any case it looks like the bears have checked out and the bulls…
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Kiwi Could be Bottoming Out

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7471, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Bottom #Kiwi #Momentum #Stochastic #Average True Range
The New Zealand Dollar could be bottoming out. First let’s take a look at the daily chart. Here we see that the Stochastic Oscillator dipped below the 20 oversold level three bars ago. We’re now rallying from these lows and we closed back above 20, indicating a bullish condition.
Our second chart below shows that the momentum during the past few days has been strongly up, with little to no retracement. This confirms what the longer-term charts are saying.
I’ll be placing my target just below t…
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EUR/JPY to Stabilize at Double Bottom

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 121.75, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #EUR/JPY #Volatility #Price Action #Double Bottom #Bottom #Japanese Yen #Formation #Range Bound
The EUR/JPY has lost a lot of ground in April. The pair closed the month lower by 636 pips. On the first picture below we can see that the currency pair is oversold on the lower timeframes according to the Stochastic Oscillator. Values below 20 indicate an oversold market.
Let's go up in timeframes. On the daily chart below we see that the pair is now right at a critical support level. This area around 122 Euros per Yen has acted as support on two other separate occasions, forming a double botto…
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fxsurprise8 25 May

The 122.00 support managed to hold up prices once again. We bounced from this level on May 2nd and on May 6th. That bounce took us much higher to 124.63 but we've since falling back.

The EUR/JPY is currently quoted at 122.91, about 120 pips away from my forecast. The 122 mark should continue to act as a magnet. I'm hoping that as we get closer to month-end we'll see renewed selling in this pair to bring me closer to my target.

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fxsurprise8 26 May

Very volatile session in the EUR/JPY but with little progress. During the Asian session heavy selling pushed this pair to a low of 122.25, only 50 pips away from my target.

But these lows were quickly bought up as risk appetite picked up across the board and the pair hit a high of 123.06 during the US session.

From here we got another reversal, this time downward as the EUR/JPY closed at 122.85. This is only 1 pip below the daily open. Fundamentally nothing has changed in this pair, so counting on more stabilization and continued flirting with the 122 handle.

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fxsurprise8 27 May

Today we got another reversal close to the 122 handle. Prices bottomed out at 122.21 before clawing back some of the losses to close at 122.50.

This is 75 pips away from my target. With the Euro being heavily sold on Friday, we could see continuation of the EUR down moves next week to bring us closer to 121.75.

Technically the 122 handle continues to act as both support and a price magnet, inline with my analysis.

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fxsurprise8 1 June

Time for another update!  In the past few days the EUR/JPY had a wild ride. On Monday we rallied to a high of 124.18. But these gains were short-lived as today we crashed back down to.....wait for it.....yes the 122.00 handle again!

The pair bottomed out at 121.98 this morning, then bounced to an interim high of 122.82 before trading back down to the 122.00 handle yet again. We are currently quoted exactly at this level (122.003) with only few hours to go in the contest.

Given how volatile this pair has been today, it will be part luck how close the EUR/JPY gets to my 121.75 target.

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Kiwi Calling The Bottom

Daytrader21 Posted 3 July  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Bottom #Kiwi #Seasonality #Cot Report
Two days ago in my recent webinar I've been calling out the possibility of a bottom in kiwi. I'm not expecting a full reversal just a rally inside a bearish trend or a correction as nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Even last month I've been warning that we need to prepare for a bounce but also highlighting that timing the bounce is key, you can read what I had to say back then here: NZ Dollar COT Extreme
Figure 1: NZD/USD Seasonality

The reason why I've…
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GBP/USD will pull back a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5367, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Resistance #Reversal #Cable #Bottom #Momentum #Pullback #Monthly Trendline #Pre Election Uncertainty
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. The pair reversed strongly from there and is about to close the month above …
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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: The pair was among the losers this week as it lost nearly two cents from the open. It fell every day of the week and produced some nice tradable patterns along the way. (Un)fortunately we must trade at the right hand side of the chart and and cheers to all those who were selling the rallies. The pair ended the week some 50 pips above the pre-election levels, closing near the low.

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al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 10: It's that week of the month when we get the PMIs from the UK's three most important sectors: Services, Manufacturing and Construction. As a bonus, BOE will meet for their latest monetary policy decision. Data from across the Atlantic (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be equally important. Initial support (1.5250) is followed by 50.0% retracement of the April 13th to May 14th rally (~1.5150) with 50 and 100 DMA just below that. First resistance may come in near 1.5350.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! Really close- less than 100 pips to go with all the volatility on the market. I think the manufacturing PMI will support the cable, so will be even closer:)

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al_dcdemo 31 May

Thanks! That's what I'm expecting too, let's hope it plays out that way. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 31 May

Good analysis : )

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GBP/CHF Double Bottom

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.4736, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Crosses #Snb #GBP/CHF #Bottom
After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes.
Figure 1. GBP/CHF Weekly chart.

Based on the Monthly chart we can spot a big double bottom that is ta…
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Daytrader21 28 Feb.

Update 2: As expected the momentum continue to push higher and we're near our target. From here on I'm expecting a retracement based on Figure 1 we should see the market ranging between a wide range 1.4750 resistance zone and 1.4000 big round number and support zone

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Daytrader21 7 Mar.

Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above the key level 1.4750 but we still have to be patience and wait and see if there is any follow through to confirm this breakout.

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Daytrader21 14 Mar.

Update 4: This pair has broken outside my projection and we the momentum pushed this pair all the way up past the big round number 1.5000 and we had a strong rejection from there making a "v" shape top for now which should keep this pair under pressure in the coming weeks. Next week support stands at 1.4700 level.

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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 5: As per my previous update I was right we indeed established a "v" shape top. Now we're big round number 1.4500 which should provide some support level for the time being. Next week we should see momentum start picking up.

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 6: After 2 weeks sell of this pair has finally found a bottom and we should expect previous week low to hold. So the 1.4200 level should act as support. If we manage to break above 1.4500 round number in the first days of the week there is a chance we'll hit our target

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GBP/USD still has room to decline

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5515, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Retracement #Decline #Momentum Deceleration
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The momentum of the decline appears to have been decelerating somewhat. The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: The pair's huge decline was the greatest surprise of the first trading day of the year. It lost 250 pips on Friday, which is the biggest one day loss since May 2010. Again, thin liquidity considerations apply, so we will have to wait till next week for more evidence on whether this was just a blip or something more substantial.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair has well and truly busted the weekly support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) and traded down to almost 1.5. On Thursday it then turned the corner and was also well bid on Friday. It closed the week one cent above the lows of 1.5035. Especially if EUR/USD stages a correction in the days ahead of ECB meeting, further upside in the pair is quite likely.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: The pair set the stage nicely for a possible correction up to 1.55 but then stalled in 1.5250 - 1.5350 region. On Friday, in a bout of USD strength, it broke back down through 1.5150 and closed the week below the level. If it manages to hold above 1.5, there's still a chance of a rebound towards 1.55, especially if ECB doesn't satisfy the markets at the next week's meeting.

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GBP/USD still has room to decline (resubmitted analysis)

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5543, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Downtrend
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:
The chart shows trendline that capped upticks from July earlier this yea…
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update 1: After Friday's much better than expected NFP report the pair sold off to new lows and closed there. This implies new lows in the week ahead. But with year-end coming ever closer and recent price action looking like many players are buying into this pair, additional losses may not extend that much further.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: The pair manged to climb to the daily downtrend line, but wasn't able to close above it. It set itself nicely for a break higher, but more likely it will consolidate around these (or a bit lower) levels ahead of the FOMC next week. If we will get hawkish Fed, confirming that the rate rises are close, we may get decent sell-off and still end up around the target of 1.5543.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: The pair sold off after the FOMC and stopped the decline just two pips below my prediction target of 1.5543. Next day it made some ground back on much better than expected retail sales, but has finished the week on a weaker note. Even though staying in recent range (1.5550 - 1.5750) seems the most probable outcome, one final attempt at 1.55 for the year, is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

Update 4: The pair has broken the 1.55 level, but has then retreated to close back above the big figure. It has closed the week right around my prediction target of 1.5543. It is very much possible that the following week will remain range-bound, so that's good starting point.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

Update 5: The first three days of New Year holiday shortened week were quite lively, but the pair remained pretty much range-bound and ended up slightly above levels from last Friday. There was some strong EUR/GBP selling on Wednesday and, as EUR/USD, the cross closed the year on yearly lows. That lent some support to the Cable and we will see in next couple of days whether it will follow the Euro lower.

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EUR/USD nearing important confluence (resubmitted analysis)

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2215, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bottom #Downtrend
Monthly chart:
Price is nearing confluence of:
1. Long term trendline that supports lows of years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2012.
2. 200 month SMA.
3. 50% retracement of the October 2000 to July 2008 uptrend, which contained price in years 2008, 2010 and 2012.
The confluence zone ranges between 1.2150 and 1.2250.
Weekly chart:
It has been pretty much one way market since the beginning of the downtrend in early May. There was single 400 pip correction (~25%), while in other cases price wasn't a…
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update1: Last Thursday ECB announced that any further measures will be implemented next year and the pair rallied strongly. But next day stellar NFP report pushed it to the new low as market now sees Fed hikes even closer. The pair closed the day and the week on the lows and that looks very bearish. But we will have to wait for the next week to see if there will be any follow through.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: There wasn't any follow through from the NFP report last week. Not only that, the pair closed last three trading days and a week above daily downtrend line. That is bullish. It might be some position squaring before next week's FOMC meeting, but if the Fed does not deliver (drops "considerable time" and reaffirms hawkish bias) we could see a massive short squeeze.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: After trading briefly above 1.2550 on Tuesday, the pair turned around and it was on its way lower before the FOMC. Despite some initial confusion, the Fed didn't disappoint the bears and the pair continued to sell off till the very end of the week. Technical picture is not pretty. The pair closed on new yearly lows, below the 200 month SMA, posting bearish engulfing weekly candle. Although all this suggests more losses in the days ahead, given that the last two weeks are expected to be quiet, returning to the recent range and consolidation appears to be more likely.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

Update 4: The pair didn't return to the recent (1.2250 - 1.2550) range, but instead made it to new marginal lows and closed the week below 1.22. Provided that it stays range-bound throughout the next week, the target of 1.2215 is well in reach.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

Update 5: It is not surprising at all that the pair closed the year a couple of pips from the yearly low. In addition, it posted a yearly bearish engulfing candle. That's two strong bearish technicals. But since market never goes up or down in a straight line, we may see some upside first.

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