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U.S. dollar continues the sentiment from Friday afternoon, trading weaker today. GBP/USD sold off that day and then reversed just as strongly. The pair is contained in a three-cent range, between 1.3050 - 1.3350. Direction of the breakout will depend on this week's U.K. economic data that may either soldify or weaken the case for BOE rate hike in August.
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BOE proceeds with caution, pound sells off
Bank of England left the official bank rate unchanged. Market had expected a hawkish hold, ideally a green light for a hike in August. That wasn't to be, instead they said the timing of the next hike depends on incoming economic data. GBP/USD adjusted lower but bounced back after U.S. CPI missed estimate prompted some profit taking on long dollar positions. 200 DMA near 1.355 is the bull/bear line in sand.
GBP/USD pauses ahead of 200 DMA and 1.35
GBP/USD fell more than 800 pips in three weeks, as U.S. dollar turns positive on the year. Weak economic data, dovish BOE and recent political developments are among the drivers on the U.K.'s side of equation. The pair is taking a pause ahead of the 200 DMA and 1.35 figure as we await on U.S. labour market report for April. Momentum suggests further losses but a potentially sharp correction is to be expected at some point.
Pound pulls back further after Carney's comments
GBP/USD fell sharply yesterday after some dovish comments by BOE governor Mark Carney. Selling accelerated after all three economic data reports (labour market, inflation, retail sales) came in weaker than expected. 1.40 - 1.4050 is the initial support. A break below would target 100 DMA. 1.4125 - 1.4150 is a resistance.
GBP rallies on Brexit deal progress
Pound pairs rallied yesterday as E.U. and U.K. reached an important Brexit milestone. GBP/USD ran stops above 1.40 and is currently holding above the big figure. It's a big week for GBP data-wise, starting with inflation today, jobs tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday, along with BOE meeting and E.U. summit. 50 DMA has to hold if the momentum is to remain in place. In broader terms, 1.375 - 1.425 range still in play.
GBP/USD looks heavy ahead of the BOE
Bank of England's quarterly inflation report meeting a.k.a. the Super Thursday meeting concludes today. While a rate hike is off the table, it's quite possible that they'll maintain an upbeat assessment of the economy despite some recent weakness in the short term data. If anything, stronger pound brings some of the desired tightening without them needing to hike. That said, I wouldn't go long GBP/USD just yet.
GBP/USD falls despite some solid inflation figures
U.K. headline inflation came in above 3.0% for the first time since 2012. That means BOE governor Mark Carney will have to write a letter to chancellor Philip Hammond to explain it. Cable was unimpressed though and fell to a new intraday low (1.3320) after initial spike to 1.3380.
Not-so-hawkish hike sends pound lower
The Bank of England hiked its official bank rate for the first time in ten years with support from all but two MPC members. The hike was widely anticipated though and the market sold this fact in the absence of a really hawkish forward guidance. The pound looks headed lower.
BOE Interest Rates
At its November policy meeting, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to raise the Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.5%, effectively reversing August 2016’s cut in the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.
BoE policymakers have been recently signalling action in the midst of above-target inflation and a tightening labour market, with the UK unemployment rate now below what the bank estimates to be the equilibrium rate.
However, any move is unlikely to herald the beginni…
BoE policymakers have been recently signalling action in the midst of above-target inflation and a tightening labour market, with the UK unemployment rate now below what the bank estimates to be the equilibrium rate.
However, any move is unlikely to herald the beginni…
U.S. dollar strong but yen outperforms
Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now.
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…