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Loonie to stay above 1.30 in March

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3225, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bearish Technicals #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Support/resistance Area #Cautious Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Su…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar extended its gains this week in most major currency pairs as a rate hike by the Fed and a potentially steeper tightening path is getting discounted. One exception was the euro which gained on the back of constructive tones from ECB and less chances of Le Pen victory in French election. Next week's calendar features three central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, SNB), U.S. inflation, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP. If FOMC fails to hike on Wednesday, the dollar would sell-off hard. To avoid disturbance, a hike is almost a certainty. "Sell the fact" reaction possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 7: As widely expected, the FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 8: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by the Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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Loonie to trade below 1.30 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Jan. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3075, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bearish Technicals #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #100 Week Sma #Weak U S Dollar
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal is followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. The for…
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al_dcdemo 14 Feb.

UPDATE 6: Since topping out above 50.0% retracement of the H1 2016 downswing, Loonie has been making lower highs and lower lows, compressing against the strong support area between 2009 high (1.3065) and the big figure at 1.30. Break and hold below the area would target 1.28 initially and then 38.2% retracement of 2011 - 2016 uptrend. 2016 low is near 1.2450. If the area holds again, 200 DMA will be the initial resistance and then 1.32 - 1.325.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 7: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 8: Indecision in the markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. USD/CAD appears to have based above 1.30. A retest of 1.3250 in the days ahead is possible, if dollar strength returns.

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al_dcdemo 1 Mar.

UPDATE 10: USD/CAD has been bought every day so far this week. It was BOC meeting today and the bank used the opportunity for some dovish talk even thought the reference to Canadian dollar strength was dropped in an unusually brief statement. The pair is up more than 250 pips, eyeing January high near 1.3390. Successful break above that would target 1.3450 - 1.35. Area between 100 DMA (1.3280) and 1.33 should hold if this rally is to continue.

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EUR/USD to remain supported

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1025, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Ecb Meeting #Bearish Technicals #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding near long-term trendline, supported by 1985 and 2000 lows and rein…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 5: In terms of easing monetary policy, ECB did much more than most market participants were expecting. After 120 pip decline in the first 15 minutes, the pair struggled to hold below 1.0850, a sign of strong demand at those prices. The pair made new intraday low 10 minutes after press conference kicked off, started to retrace some of the move, and then rocketed higher after Draghi said that he sees no need to cut rates further, surging 400 pips from the low to the high in a couple of hours. Technical picture looks bullish again with the potential new range between 1.10 and 1.15.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Euro so far gained about two cents. That also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 22 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Euro rose five cents from the ECB day low (~1.0820) to the post-Fed high (~1.1340) but fell short of the February high near 1.1380. Pullback has been weak and similar to the one from a week ago. All things being equal and despite holidays, a surge towards 1.1450 cannot be ruled out in the days ahead. 1.12 (post ECB high) is the immediate support before stronger 1.10 - 1.1050 band (pre-Fed low, 200 DMA, 50 DMA, 1.10 big figure level).

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on a better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0557, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Confluence #Bullish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Channel Line #Key Reversal #Bearish Technicals
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 6 Apr.

UPDATE 2: After NFP debacle on Friday, there's definitely potential for some further upside in the days ahead. Especially if US data continues to disappoint. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims on Thursday will be closely watched, while FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be subject to even more scrutiny. 50 DMA near 1.1030 and January low at 1.1098 are the first strong resistance levels.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: In the worst week since mid-January, the pair has lost nearly four cents (392 pips), while weekly range extended more than 450 pips. After it has broken post-NFP high in the early part of Monday's US session, the pair looked poised for a break above March high (1.10522) and continuation higher. That didn't happen and the pair reversed lower with gusto. The decline continued in a familiar fashion with shallow pullbacks, shedding 50 - 100 pips each day until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: There's ECB meeting on Wednesday, so the most likely scenario is that the pair will consolidate on Monday and Tuesday. Support is found at the monthly declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows) near 1.0550 and then at the March cycle-low (1.0462). In the event that the pair corrects to the upside, March 31 low should offer some resistance, before 20 DMA near 1.0850.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: It looked like the pair will challenge 1.0450 low that was set on March 13, but sharp rejection from 1.05 level on Monday was one of the first signs that it won't go that easily. On Tuesday, the sentiment was reversed after weaker than expected US Retail Sales report. It was an uptrend from there till the end of the week, but one with deep pullbacks which demonstrated that there's still two-way interest in the pair.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: In the week ahead, there will be plenty market moving events that could impact the pair: ZEW on Tuesday; Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs on Thursday; Ifo survey on Friday with Eurogroup Meetings to boot. The first strong resistance comes in a way of 50 DMA, which has contained the downtrend since May 2014. Daily close above it would open path to 1.1098 weekly resistance, but false break and continuation lower is just as likely.

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EUR/USD bottom? Not just yet.

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0977, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Consolidation #EUR/USD #Fibonacci Retracement #Momentum #Divergence #Bearish Technicals #Yearly Lows #Technical Downtrend
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend was violated in January, but the pair managed to retrace back above it. The pair then held above the level until the last two trading days of February when it broke lower and closed the month below the level. The September 2003 low at 1…
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al_dcdemo 7 Mar.

UPDATE 1: After some consolidation in the beginning of the week, the pair broke lower on Wednesday and closed the day on new eleven-year lows. On Thursday, during ECB press conference, it briefly traded back above 1.1098, but it reversed and proceeded to break 1.10. Then on Friday, before and after another strong US jobs report, it lost additional two cents, netting nearly 350 pips loss on the week. Support is now seen near 2003 low at 1.0760 and then at the monthly channel line (off lows of years 2008 and 2010, not shown on the charts) closer to 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: In another devastating week, the pair has lost additional three and a half cents. After a shallow pullback on Monday, it was one-way street lower, breaking September 2003 low, monthly channel line (drawn off lows of years 2008 and 2010) and 1.05 level, in the process. There was slight relief on Thursday, but it was quickly sold into and new lows followed on Friday with the pair closing below 1.05. There's not a lot of support now until 76.4% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend) and parity.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair was gaining since the beginning of the week, but the most volatile part came on Wednesday during and after FOMC meeting, when it surged more than 400 pips from pre-release levels. The pair gave it all back next day, but then picked up where it left off and continued to rally on Friday and closed above September 2013 low (1.0760). The pair has almost completely reversed last week's losses and at one point traded more than 100 pips above that week's high. First stronger resistance now comes near January 19 low (1.1097).

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Following a cent deep retracement early on Monday, the pair continued last Friday's rally and was poised to break above post-FOMC high on Tuesday, but solid US inflation report was enough to stall it. After some sideways action, the pair broke post-FOMC high (1.1035) and spent some moments above 1.1050 level, but was rejected and it traded back lower, testing 1.08 on Friday before returning back to 1.09 pivot. The direction is unclear at the moment, 1.0750 - 1.1050 is the range.

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EURo heavy again

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Range #Retracement #Bearish Technicals
Euro is poised to closed below the 61.8% retracement of the 2000 - 2008 uptrend. It will also close below three-week range and possibly below 1.12 level. Add solid US fundamentals to the bearish technicals and we will likely see a retest of the 1.11 low and possibly lower in the days ahead.
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