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EURo to remain in 1.0350 - 1.10 range for now

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 18 Февр. как анализ EUR/USD , Цель: 1.0725, Дата: 3-е Апреля, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair traded below 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
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al_dcdemo 18 Март

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. That said, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Март

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Март

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Апр.

UPDATE 9: Correction in dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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al_dcdemo 3 Апр.

UPDATE 10: Euro traded above both December high and 200 DMA last week before pulling back sharply. One of the reasons was weak core inflation print which doesn't support ideas of any sooner than expected tightening by the ECB. The pair lost a good cent on the week with the range of two and a half cents. Established S/R line near 1.0650 is holding for now, reinforced by 50 and 100 DMA. Current downswing may extend to the trendline, drawn off of January and March lows.

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EURo to recover some more in February

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 23 Янв. как анализ EUR/USD , Цель: 1.0825, Дата: 1-е Марта, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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al_dcdemo 11 Февр.

UPDATE 6: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even then, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two Fed rate hikes this year.

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al_dcdemo 15 Февр.

UPDATE 7: The dollar rallied across the board yesterday, after Yellen's introductory speech at Humphrey Hawkins was released. She didn't say anything particularly new but was a bit more hawkish than the market had expected. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA and traded to as low as 1.0560. Since topping out near 1.0830 at the start of the month, the pair fell in eight out of ten days. Big figure at 1.05 is the next target while 50 DMA and 1.06 should now act as resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Февр.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Февр.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in the markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off is notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Февр.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. EUR/USD is having hard time sustaining upticks above 50 DMA. A retest of 1.05 in the days ahead is possible, if dollar strength returns.

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EURo may approach parity in January

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 26 Дек. как анализ EUR/USD , Цель: 1.0225, Дата: 1-е Февраля, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals #U S Election
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair traded below 1.05 - 1.15 range …
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al_dcdemo 16 Янв.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Янв.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Янв.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Янв.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely watched.

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al_dcdemo 30 Янв.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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EURo to stay below the long term trendline

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 22 Нояб. как анализ EUR/USD , Цель: 1.0475 , Дата: 2-е Января, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals #U S Election
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows in t…
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al_dcdemo 24 Дек.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Дек.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Янв.

UPDATE 10: The sharp spike lower on Friday was completely retraced by the time European session got underway. Euro ended the last trading day of 2016 slightly higher but headed down on the first day of the new year. It's a holiday in many countries today still but we will not have to wait for too long to see how the first real moves for the year will look like as liquidity returns to the market. The pair looks poised to end the contest period a couple of pips from my target of 1.0475. Excluding the aforementioned spike, the pair conformed well to the expected price path.

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fx_lmcap 2 Янв.

Great forecast!

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al_dcdemo 2 Янв.

Thanks a lot! :)

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Will the long term trendline hold the euro again?

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 24 Окт. как анализ EUR/USD , Цель: 1.0975, Дата: 1-е Декабря, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Decline #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is testing the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows and re…
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al_dcdemo 9 Нояб.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my view.

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al_dcdemo 11 Нояб.

UPDATE 6: The euro once again sits just above the long-term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. Speculation is that, with Trump and the Republicans at the helm, the U.S. will enter a reflation period that will bring about jobs, growth, inflation and higher interest rates. The pair posted a huge reversal pattern on the election day but in the current range-bound environment its significance is diluted. Still, both technicals and fundamentals point lower and the next stronger support is seen near 76.4% retracement of the December 2015 - May 2016 upswing, at 1.0780.

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al_dcdemo 19 Нояб.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after the U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (large fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 23 Нояб.

UPDATE 8: After ten days of declines during which it fell more than seven cents (700 pips), the euro paused at the trendline drawn off of 2015 lows. The pullback has so far been less than one cent but traders may step up covering if the move stalls further. Buying may accelerate if the pair trades through the immediate resistance between 1.0650 and 1.0675. On the other hand, a daily close below 1.0575 could lead to continuation of the downtrend, targeting last year's lows, 1.0520 and 1.0460.

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al_dcdemo 28 Нояб.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 27 Июль как анализ AUD/USD , Цель: 0.7475, Дата: 1-е Сентября, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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al_dcdemo 15 Авг.

UPDATE 6: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Авг.

UPDATE 7: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Авг.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Авг.

UPDATE 9: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about further room for monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to a lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 1 Сент.

UPDATE 10: Aussie spiked about 20 pips on the release of much weaker than expected retail sales and capex reports. The decline was quickly bought into and the pair is holding firmly above 0.75 which was briefly pierced in yesterday's trading. The big figure is reinforced by 100 DMA with the next stronger support coming in between late July low (~0.7425) and 200 DMA (~0.7380). Some resistance may be encountered at 50 DMA (~0.7560) and then near May - August trendline (~0.7585).

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Brexit likely to weigh on AUD/USD too

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 25 Июнь как анализ AUD/USD , Цель: 0.7225, Дата: 1-е Августа, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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al_dcdemo 11 Июль

UPDATE 4: June's NFP report suggested that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted an all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

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al_dcdemo 12 Июль

UPDATE 5: The path of least resistance is to the upside for the Australian dollar, which looks supported above 0.75. Some weakness in gold and oil is offset by better risk sentiment across the globe. Next target for the pair is 100 MMA (0.77) and then 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line (0.7750). The mentioned 0.75 level is backed by 100 DMA (0.7460), 50 DMA (0.7375) and 200 DMA (0.73).

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al_dcdemo 20 Июль

UPDATE 6: Aussie lost about 85 pips yesterday with a daily range of 115 pips. Most losses came in Asian session after the release of dovish monetary policy meeting minutes. Australian inflation report next week will be a big one and will likely determine whether the RBA will cut cash rate in August. The decline stalled near 0.75, reinforced by 100 DMA just below. A convincing break of the support could send the pair to 0.74 (50 DMA) and then 0.73 (June lows, 200 DMA). 0.7550 may now act as a resistance.

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al_dcdemo 30 Июль

UPDATE 7: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved recently and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 Июль

UPDATE 8: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP reading. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained about 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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AUD/USD to remain offered in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Опубликовал 21 Май как анализ AUD/USD , Цель: 0.7125, Дата: 1-е Июля, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Confluence #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Sharp Sell Off #Bearish Fundamentals
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 week…
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al_dcdemo 6 Июнь

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of the European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 Июнь

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 14 Июнь

UPDATE 6: Australian dollar's range for this week has been barely over 50 pips with the main action in other currencies. Nevertheless, narrow ranges are almost always followed with a breakout to the either side and FOMC meeting on Wednesday or Aussie labour force report on Thursday could be the catalysts. The pair is trading near the trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows and just below 100 DMA. 50 DMA, approaching from above, is the next resistance. Stronger support is about 100 pips below and comprises of 2015 support/resistance line and 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 24 Июнь

UPDATE 7: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not entirely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 Июнь

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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