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Aussie to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ott as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.798, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USA #Australia #Trend #AUD/USD #Breakout #Us Dollar #Gains
I'm betting on the AUD/USD heading higher during November and here's why. On the first chart below we see a slow but steady trend higher for the Aussie.
On the second chart we notice the constant pressure by the bulls on the resistance area. With each thrust the odds increase that eventually they will break the dam and push prices upward. I'm placing my bet at 1.7980. This is just below the 1.8000 round figure and yet within the bounds of the monthly ATR for this pair.
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More of the Same in the AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ott as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0636, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range Bound #New Zealand Dollar
I'm expecting more of the same for the AUD/NZD and here's why. First on the long-term charts we can see that this pair has been range-bound for the past 2 years. Although volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019, no major changes happened in price.
This volatile but untimely range-bound movement can be seen in the second half of this year as well. See the chart below. During October the monthly range has been very small as well at onl…
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fxsurprise8 28 Nov

It's been a trending month for most currency pairs but not so much for the AUD/NZD. Here we saw prices initially fall down over 300 pips, only to rally over 300 pips, then fall by over 200 pips.

So far in November we saw a total range of 340 pips, with a high of 1.0703 and a low at 1.0363.  This may seem like a lot but we are currently quoted at 1.0570, only 61 pips down since November 1st.

Compared to my forecast above we're down by 66 pips or around 0.62%. I will need some bullish movement into month-end to climb higher in the rankings.

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No Clear Trends Seen in AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.052, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range #New Zealand Dollar
No clear trend can be seen in the AUD/NZD. Volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019 in April 2015. But no major changes happened in price as we saw the pair snap back from the extremes.
The two economies of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked thus range-bound movement seems to the norm for this pair. The short-term daily chart below confirm this view. We've made no progress in this pair since June of this year. Furthermore th…
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fxsurprise8 31 Ott

The AUD/NZD is now quoted at 1.0640, about 120 pips above my forecasted price. The monthly range has been fairly small as well at only 260 pips, with a high at 1.0764 and a low at 1.0504.

Furthermore we still remain deep inside the now five-month range that started back in June, with a high at 1.0771 and the five-month low at 1.0236.

The three arguments above confirm my original analysis from above that there are no clear trends in this pair. I will need a helping hand from the market to move prices a bit closer to my target though.

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More Losses for the Aussie

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8121, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #Australia #AUD/USD #Aussie #Us Dollar
The Aussie is having a bad year. The pair fell by over 400 pips in 2014 and the year isn't even done yet. The daily chart below clearly shows the downside momentum. I expect the losses in the AUD/USD to continue.
Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that there are no noticebale signs of support until the May 2010 swing low at 0.8066. I'm betting on prices continuing the freefall but I think the losses will stop short of 0.80. Thus, my forecast for January 2nd is 0.8121.
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fxsurprise8 29 Dic

So far my analysis has been spot on. The AUD/USD continued the decline and last week hit a low of 0.8086, just 20 pips shy of the 0.8066 swing low I mentioned. Here prices bounced (again as expected) and we are currently quoted at 0.8150. This is still 30 pips higher compared to my target but there is time for the Aussie to fall further.

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fxsurprise8 31 Dic

We are now 40 pips away from my target prediction. The end year Dollar rally during the past 2 days is helping to push my position closer to target. Fingers crossed!

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fxsurprise8 2 Gen

Today is the first trading day of 2015 and the US dollar rally continued into the New Year, bringing the pair back down and even closer to 0.8121. The May 2010 swing low at 0.8066 successfully acted as support and managed to propel prices higher. Overall, a good analysis and the result should be close to my target.

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laxmi 13 Gen

good prediction.

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The Range in AUD/NZD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0821, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Australia #AUD/NZD #New Zealand
For the past year, the AND/NZD has traded in a small 8 percent range between 1.0500 and 1.1300. In November, Aussie weakness pushed prices away from the 1.13 mark and the pair tumbled close to 500 pips.
Looking back on the monthly chart, usually after periods of massive selling in the pair prices stabilized the next month. For an example of this, take a look at July 2013 and before that April 2013. The losses of May and July 2011 were also followed by consolidation period. I expect this pattern …
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