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Aussie rallying on the RBA

al_dcdemo Posted 2 June  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Cash Rate #Weekly Pivot Point #Daily Resistance 1 #Rate Statement #Daily Resistance 2 #H1 50 Sma
As widely expected, RBA left the Cash Rate at 2.00%. Although they expressed an easing bias, the statement was not particularly dovish and the Aussie is rallying on it.
The pair broke yesterday's high near 0.7670. If it manages to hold above it, there's a cluster of resistance (Daily Resistance 2, Weekly Pivot Point, 0.77 level) between 0.7695 and 0.77. On the downside, Daily Resistance 1 and 0.7750 with H1 50 SMA just below that should now provide the first stronger level of support.
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Aussie through April's high

al_dcdemo Updated 13 May  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Retail Sales #Weekly Resistance 2 #Monthly Resistance 1 #200 Hma
The Dollar fell across the board today after weaker than expected retail sales report. Revision were better though, but that's not what the market focused on.
Aussie has been bid since the beginning of the European session, continuing its broader uptrend. It broke above 0.8050 level and the April high at 0.0875 shortly after the release of the above-mentioned report.
A cluster of resistance from 0.8130 - 0.8160 (200 HMA, Monthly Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 2) shall contain it for now, but th…
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RBA cuts

al_dcdemo Posted 5 May  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Cash Rate
As expected by most economists, RBA cut cash rate to 2.00% from 2.25%. Knee-jerk reaction was to sell Aussie, but the dip was bought in a matter of minutes and the pair was soon breaking to new session highs and above 0.79. After that it pulled back towards 0.785 and consolidated for a while, but it continued higher soon after US traders got to their desks.
If it manages to get back above range high near 0.7935 and holds there, that would put 0.80 back into focus and then previous week high at 0…
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AUD/USD to gain in the near-term

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8142, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Breakout #Stevens #Gains #Bounce #Decline #Failed Break
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following three months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but broke higher (to 0.8075) in the end of April. The breakout appears to be fake as the pair returned back to the range.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA g…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: Week ahead will be big for the pair. We have Building Approvals m/m on Monday, Trade Balance and RBA meeting on Tuesday, Retail Sales m/m on Wednesday, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate on Thursday, RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday. Along with the data from US: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday and Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday. 20 and 50 day SMA should offer decent support, while 0.8050 - 0.8075 would be the first stronger resistance level.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: As widely expected, RBA finally cut Cash Rate to 2.00% from 2.25%. With the cut obviously had being fully priced in, the pair recovered from a knee-jerk lower in matter of minutes. The short squeeze continued until Wednesday afternoon, and the pair spent the rest of the week backing and filling. There was some action on Friday on the release of NFP, but the pair was essentially flat on that day. It closed the week just above previous (three-month) range resistance in 0.7910 - 0.7940 band.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: The data from Australia in the week ahead are not of particular note. NAB Business Confidence on Monday and Annual Budget Release on Tuesday may provide some volatility. while Chinese Industrial Production and US data, (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, will likely offer more. The pair is supported by 20 and 100 DMA with 50 DMA coming in a cent lower. Resistance is seen in 0.8050 - 0.8075 band.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: After lacklustre price action on Monday, Aussie broke higher on Tuesday and followed through strongly on Wednesday at which point it looked like the pair is about to become the star performer of the week. The pullback that ensued on Thursday and Friday prevented that, but the technical picture is still bullish with the first weekly close above 0.80 level since early January.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: There's not a lot on the calendar from Australia next week: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and few other lower-tier releases. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI from China may provide some volatility, but the main events will be FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation report from the United States. If the uptrend is to continue, any deeper pullback should not extend below 0.7950. Initial resistance is now established just above 0.8150.

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The Dollar weakens again

al_dcdemo Updated 27 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Weekly Resistance 1 #100 Dma #Daily Resistance 2
After weaker than expected US Markit Services PMI, the Dollar is selling-off across the board. The Aussie is one of the pairs that appears to be benefiting the most out of it.
The pair broke April 17th high near 0.7840 and if it manages to hold above there, the next cluster of resistance (Weekly Resistance 1, Daily Resistance 2, 100 DMA, 0.79 level) is not far ahead at 0.7880 - 0.7900. Busting that would open up the door to the March 24 high (0.7835) and then 0.80 level.
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The pairs mostly remain in ranges

al_dcdemo Posted 20 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Dma
USD is showing some strength across the board today.
Aussie appears to be the heaviest of major pairs, with RBA governor Stevens' comments not helping it. The pair will likely remain in recent range until RBA meeting on May 5. 50 DMA is now running right through the middle of this range while 100 DMA is nearing from above.
Technically, the most likely direction is down, but if RBA fails to deliver in May, that may well be preceded by a deeper pullback.
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Aussie get some relief

al_dcdemo Posted 16 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Jobs Report
Aussie surged overnight on a much better than expected jobs report:
Employment Change: 37.7K vs. 14.9K expected vs. 42.0K previously (revised up from 15.6K)
Unemployment Rate: 6.1% vs. 6.3% expected vs. 6.2% previously (revised down from 6.3%)
Participation Rate: 64.8% vs. 64.6% expected vs. 64.7% previously (revised up from 64.6%)
In addition, most jobs added were full time jobs.
Market is beginning to question widely expected RBA rate cut in May, but appears to be cautious as the follow throug…
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RBA on hold

al_dcdemo Posted 7 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Ois
Despite OIS pricing in 75% chance of a rate cut, RBA didn't pull the trigger at today's meeting. Aussie rallied in response after the number was (again) leaked few seconds before the official release time (4:30 GMT). It didn't get much more than 10 pips past 0.77 as the market now expects they will cut in May.
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AUD/USD downtrend not over yet

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7469, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Range #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias #Decline
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following two months it traded in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but it finished March trading below 200 month SMA. Further down, some demand should come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and 0.70 big figure le…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: This week was a complete opposite of the last week, as Aussie was the strongest of the major currencies. It was RBA and their decision to stay on hold that was keeping the pair underpinned. It didn't, however, manage to make any significant gains, as it remained in the lower half of the recent 0.7550 - 0.7590 range. It ended the week 30 odd pips higher, but that's quite an achievement compared to other major pairs, which moved 100 - 400 pips to the USD side.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Near-term direction will depend on the economic data from US and China, which will be coming throughout all week, and Aussie jobs report to be released on Thursday. Until then the risk is on the upside, unless the data from the States improves and/or Chinese disappoint. Range support extends from 0.7500 to 0.7550, while resistance is seen in 0.7900 - 0.7950 band. I expect the pair to remain contained between these two extremes at least until May RBA meeting.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: After two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Following unconvincing price action but with two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Australian CPI report will be released on Wednesday and both headline CPI q/q and RBA's favorite Trimmed Mean CPI q/q are expected to come out lower. Any positive surprises could see the pair breaking above 100 DMA and testing range top near 0.7925. Otherwise most likely scenario is for the pair to remain in its recent 3-month range, as many market participants and indeed OIS are still projecting rate cut in May.

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Aussie tests lower end of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Momentum #Pause #Pboc #Cycle Low
Despite dovish comments from PBOC governor Zhou over the weekend, Aussie fell more than 100 pips yesterday. The decline stalled on the trendline that was broken last Friday, but the momentum of the move suggests that this may be just a temporary pause before further falls. Weekly Support 2 at 0.7618 and 0.76 level should lend it some support before cycle low at 0.7560.
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