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Cable to continue steady rise as the year turns

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3725, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 11: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD topped out near 1.3610 just before E.U. session commenced. Two weaker than expected PMIs in a row didn't help the pair, which snapped back to 1.35. Possibly also some profit taking ahead of FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 13: GBP/USD surged 200 pips on Friday, closing the week on the highest level since Brexit vote. General U.S. dollar weakness and Spain and Netherlands supporting softer terms for actual Brexit were the main drivers. 1.3835 and 1.40 are the next targets. CPI and Retail Sales reports next week are the key U.K. data releases to watch in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 14: U.K. CPI inflation report for December came in solid. Headline was as expected, core missed by a tick, while retail surprised to the upside. GBP/USD was not impressed and spiked about 20 pips to the downside. Sellers have been active since yesterday, but if 1.3740 - 1.3750 area holds, bulls might get one more shot at 1.3835.

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al_dcdemo 24 Jan.

UPDATE 15: GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.K. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.

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Cable to extend gains in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3575, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 10: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 11: U.S. dollar ended this year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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Kiwi to retest support near 0.685

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 14 Nov.

UPDATE 5: NZD/USD slipped 50 pips overnight on no particular news. Higher timeframe momentum resumed, sending the pair down to test 2016/2017 support in 0.68 - 0.685 area. If the area gives way, we could see some stop-loss selling but I'd expect dip buyers to start emerging near 0.675.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 8: NZD/USD started the week on a firm note. The pair fell to one-year low near 0.6775 ahead and after the game-changing outcome of the New Zealand election. Adjustment lower may be over for now with RBNZ turning slightly more hawkish. 0.70 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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Cable to maintain 1.30 - 1.35 range for now

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3375, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below long-term support line in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-crash in Oc…
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al_dcdemo 11 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar recorded a loss this week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate said to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

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al_dcdemo 13 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Weekend report that 40 members of British parliament have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in PM Theresa May, weighs on the pound. GBP/USD opened about 20 pips lower, extended the decline by 50 pips in Asia and by 30 pips so far in Europe. 1.30 - 1.3050 is the support area to watch.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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Cable could make another attempt at the upside

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3625, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below long-term support line in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-crash in Oc…
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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.K. CPI hit 3.0% on the year-over-year basis for the first time since 2013. Wage inflation ticked higher too, but is running well below the inflation level, making it hard for the Bank of England to justify the impending bank rate hike. Cable is holding just above 50 DMA ahead of the retail sales report at 08:30 GMT. We may see more selling on a weaker number than buying on a stronger one. 1.2950 - 1.30 is the target area, if the pair continues lower. 1.3450 - 1.35 is the target area, it the pair decides to head higher.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar Japanese yen.

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USD/CAD to remain in ascending channel for now

al_dcdemo Posted 22 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3275, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Strong Supply #Optimistic Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by an upward sloping channel. 1.28 - 1.30 area is central …
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al_dcdemo 15 July

UPDATE 6: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Interesting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.145 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.745, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 8: A mixed start of the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 9: Reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't reveal anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 10: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but probably not for too long.

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AUD/USD to start the year with gains

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Ascending Channel #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Aussie opened with a gap up but promptly lost 50 pips to 0.6925 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6980 - 0.7000. It looks supported since.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Australian currency continues to be offered. It so far declined more than a cent from yesterday's high, though it has moved mostly sideways during the past couple of hours. Marginally better than expected labour market report didn't manage to turn the sentiment around. Cycle-low, set last September near 0.6910, is within reach of few pips and is an immediate support ahead of the April 2009 low (~0.6850) and 0.68 level. Broken 0.6950 level (also previous day and week low) is now acting as a solid resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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