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On Wednesday, the ADP non-farm payrolls figure is due to provide the earliest indication of February employment change. There are two ways to look at this figure, either as a key and central economic indicator, or else a predictive tool for the more notable non-farm payrolls figure on Friday. I take the first route, primarily due to the notably poor correlation between the ADP and headline payrolls figures. This has been particularly so over the past two releases, where the average differential
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