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USD/JPY supported ahead of the FOMC

al_dcdemo Posted 1 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Nikkei #D1 Chart #U S Tax Reform #Interest Rate Spread
USD/JPY remains fundamentally supported on both sides of equation. Progress on U.S. tax reform means prospects for more Fed hikes and wider interest rate spread. Japanese PM Abe's recent election victory means more Abenomics. After seven consecutive green weeks, Nikkei is trading at 20-year highs.
The pair started the week by falling below the 2017 resistance line, but is already back above the level. 114 is the immediate resistance before last week's high near 114.5. After that, 115 - 116 is th…
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USD/JPY gaps up as PM Abe wins election

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Kuroda #Gap #D1 Chart #Japanese Election
Japanese voters supported current PM Abe on the weekend. That means at least a couple more years of Abenomics, even though BOJ governor Kuroda may not be selected for the second term next year. Stocks liked this and yen was sold.
At least initially. USD/JPY gapped 30 pips at the open and extended that by about 25 pips but it was backing a filling from there. A late round of risk aversion took the pair down to the 113.25 support, from where it bounced. 114 is the the first stronger resistance.
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Yen flirting with 100

al_dcdemo Updated 7 July  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #D1 Chart #Brexit Low
USD/JPY fell again overnight and is currently trading just above 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics uptrend. If it ends the day in the red, that would be the fifth consecutive day of losses.
Although breached two times, the aforementioned level so far held, having been reinforced by the big round 100 level. A weekly close below one or both of the levels would point to a retest of the Brexit low (98.95) in the days ahead. 102.50 could cap near term upticks.
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Is 110 - 115 the new range for USD/JPY?

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #38 2 Retracement #Record Long Position #Sharp Breakout
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. The decline has seen 100 week SMA, 2013 - 2014 trendlin…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 6: After consolidating for almost a week, USD/JPY appears to be breaking to the upside. Rumours of sales tax hike delay and weaker GDP print to come Wednesday morning are doing the rounds and may have contributed to the yen weakness. Area between 109.45 and 110, which includes 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing, is the immediate resistance with 50 DMA (currently 110.30) and 76.4% retracement (110.40) the two stronger levels above the big figure. 108.75 - 109.25 shall now hold as a support.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. Loonie, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. Cable on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Following through on Yellen-induced Friday gains, the dollar strengthened further against the yen overnight and in early European session. News about sales tax hike delay and lackluster retail sales report from Japan helped to support USD/JPY. The pair rallied more than 100 pips before stalling near the middle of the pre-BOJ range between 110.65 and 111.85. The range top is the first resistance level before 100 DMA and the broken 2013 - 2014 trendline. 109.75 - 110.25 shall hold in case of a deeper pullback.

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USD/JPY to continue lower after a retracement

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.25, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Sideways Trading
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. Sharp decline has seen 100 week SMA taken out before it …
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al_dcdemo 8 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Beginning of a new month, quarter or year is often accompanied by a start of a larger move, be it continuation or reversal. Yen gained about five cents against the dollar so far this month (and quarter) with USD/JPY falling from ~112.55 to ~107.65. 38.2% retracement of the Abenomics upswing (~106.65) is the first major support level to watch before 200 month SMA (~105.85) and 105 big figure level. Area between broken 110 level and previous range bottom up to 111 shall provide solid resistance in the event of a deeper correction.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps mostly against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 7: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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USD/JPY to continue lower after a retracement

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.75, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. Sharp decline has seen 100 week SMA taken out before it …
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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Post-FOMC U.S. dollar selling continued yesterday and on some pairs even exceeded the initial (Wednesday) move. One of those pairs was USD/JPY which fell to the lowest level since October 2014 and it is rumoured that the BOJ have intervened in the market to stem the decline. 110.65 is the low from yesterday. 110 is the first major support level ahead of 38.2% retracement (~1.0675) of the Abenomics uptrend. 112 - 112.50 shall now act as a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. USD/JPY so far lost about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 23 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Reaction in the stock markets and risk sensitive currency pairs to yesterday's attacks in Brussels so far suggests that this kind of event was basically priced in, which is not surprising given the number of prevented attacks in recent months. USD/JPY dipped about 75 pips in the immediate aftermath of the news but soon went sideways above 111.50. It climbed 80 pips in the U.S. session, taking out the European session high, but stalled ahead of 112.50.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 10: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on a better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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Did the BOJ do enough to support USD/JPY?

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.25, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Bounce #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Strong 115.50 - 116 support zone has been holding since late 2014. 100 week SMA will lend it additional support, should that be required. 50 week …
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 10 Feb.

UPDATE 5: Yen strength has been one of the main stories this year. After unsuccessful attempt by the BOJ to stem its appreciation, yen buyers returned with force in February. The pair (USD/JPY) is down eight cents in the first eight trading days of the month. It has broken below strong 115.50 - 116.00 support (now resistance) at the start of the week, held near 100 week SMA (~115) for two days and then continued below 23.6% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 rally today. October 2014 high near 110 is the next major target.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 6: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 19 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Following some stabilization in world stock and commodity markets and overall improvement in risk sentiment, volatility in major currency pairs fell. The pairs mostly end the week not very far (~100 pips) from their opening levels but the ranges are still decent (100 - 300 pips). Whether is this just a temporary calm remains to be seen as global macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 8: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Yen lost about a cent on the day with the daily range worth half a cent more. The pair closed a hair below the high.

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