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USD/CAD Cycle has ended

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2589, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Usdcad #Psychological Number #Abc Correction
Based on the Elliott wave analysis the 5 wave cycle in USD/CAD has completed and we're in the process of correcting the entire cycle started from 2012 low. Wave V of the bigger cycle has been completed at around the round number 1.3400. Right now we're in the process of developing wave A of an ABC correction pattern that will take place over the next few months.
Major Levels to watch:

[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 1: Unfortunately this pair has retrace way too much from the 1.2800 levels and it may be the case we're running out of time to reach 1.2500 in which case we may assume my forecast is wrong.

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AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0960, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Fibonacci Retracement #Cycle #Abc Correction #Zig Zag Pattern
Based on Elliott Wave cycle if we count the move that started from the 2011 high (see Figure 1) all the way down to 2015 parity level we can tell that we have done a five wave move and us such we may consider the downtrend in the final stage. Right now we should be looking for a ABC corrective stage that should at least bring the price near the highs of wave IV at around the 1.1300 level.
Major Levels to watch:
[list=1][/list]…
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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: As per my analysis we're now heading towards the 50% fib retracement and as expected we made a temporary top at 1.0900. Next support comes in at 1.0600 which should be a good level to take profits as it can produce a bounce

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Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: Right now price is reacting off of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement and it may be the case we're not going to head much more lower and resume the current up trend. However we need current low at 1.0600 to hold price. Resistance comes in at previous swing high 1.0900.

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 4: As expected AUD/NZD reacted higher from the 38.2 Fib level and we also broke above previous swing high at  1.09000. Right now for next week the 1.1000 big round number should act as support level which later on should be break

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 5: Unfortunately the upside momentum has pushed up this pair right into the major resistance at 1.13000. We should see from here a push lower at least in 3 waves however I'm not sure if there is enough time to reach our target near 1.1000. Even though there are only 200 pips difference current price structure worries me. If Monday we can push lower and close below 1.1180 we can see more downside

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 6: The market is already posting a reversal and a break below 1.1150 should see the market accelerating to the downside and eventually to see a retest of the big figure 1.1000

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NZD/CHF

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on NZD/CHF, Target: 0.6727, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/CHF #Elliot Wave #Psychological Number #Abc Correction #Range Box
On an intraday level we can count the Elliott Wave cycle which suggest that there is more room to the downside. Currently we have developed only 3 wave and we're in the stage of developing wave IV before another leg lower which can take shape of another 5 wave cycle of lower degree. Right now wave number IV should end at 0.7000 big psychological number and round number. In this regard we should expect one more push higher towards the 0.7000 big round number to complete the ABC p…
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Daytrader21 14 May

The title of this prediction should have been: NZD/CHF Elliott Wave Count

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Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: NZD/CHF is playing inside a tight range between 0.6800 support level and 0.7000 big round number and resistance level. We still need another new low for the Elliott Wave sequence to be completed.

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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: Right now the market is still inside the same trading range box that was last week within the following limits: 0.6770 support and bottom of the range and 0.6930 resistance and top of the range. This looks like an accumulation range from where price can break away and retrace all the way back towards the 50% fib retracement from previous swing wave, before a return and a retest of the range.

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 3: Even though we broke below the key big figure 0.6500, we broke right into a big pivot point and we should see this pair moving back up inside the range. We should see some more consolidation between current support at 0.6460 and resistance level at 0.6600

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AUD/USD ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Jan. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8188, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Elliott Wave #Range #Abc Correction #Seasonality Cycle
Aussie is in the final stage to complete the Elliott Wave cycle that begin with the 2013 sell off. So far the market has corrected the sell off that started from 2013 with only 2 wave that can be subdivided in another 3 wave of smaller degree. Based on my Elliott Wave count we have already complete the 5 wave cycle. Right now wave 5 is completed and we should expect from here on an ABC correction
Even though the cycle may be complete that doesn't mean we can't have a new marginal low, belo the b…
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VictoriaVika 15 Jan.

You work hard now, bravo. And good luck :)

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Daytrader21 24 Jan.

Update 1: The market has decided to continue trading to the downside despite the 0.8000 big round number and strong support. However if we take in consideration the seasonality we should expect by the end of January and beginning of February to see aussie start recovering from this losses.

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Daytrader21 14 Feb.

Update 2: Due to broad based dollar strength across the board aussie has been trading to the downside very aggressively without any kind of correction. Right now the 0.7600 level has been rejected for 2 times and we're forming a box trading but in order for aussie to turn back up again we need a daily close above 0.7880 current resistance level

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Daytrader21 22 Feb.

Update 3: It appears that wave V is having an extension in the wave 3 and such there is still more downside before to see any retracement. However based on my Elliott Wave count we're in the stage  of wave 4 of V, we have just completed a five wave sequence of lower degree to complete wave 3 of V and now we can see a retracement back to retest the big round number 0.8000

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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Boj #Fed #Elliot Wave #Range #Abc Correction
I've posted this view on USD/JPY in the Technical Analysis Contest and I thought to share it here as well, you can find the original post here: USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have com…
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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 27 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 118.1100, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Abc Correction #Bullish Trend #Support Resistance
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have completed a 5 wave move Elliott Wave suggest we should expect an ABC correction but this should push us back all the way towards the levels of wave 4 which will be quite a big downside move. …
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Daytrader21 28 Jan.

Update 2: USD/JPY has been contained inside a very tight range between 119.00 resistance zone and 117.00 support zone and also this area is the middle of a much wider range zone (see Figure 2).  Usually it's normal to consolidate in this region however based on Elliot wave we may have just completed a double zig-zag and we can expect the market to start breaking to the upside

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WallStreetBlog 1 Feb.

Interesting!

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Daytrader21 1 Feb.

Update 3: 117.50 is a strong support, however due the fact it was tested for so many times it may be the case it will not hold anymore, in which case my forecast will be wrong. However there is a little chance if we gap to the upside on Sunday at the market open we may be heading back towards 118.00.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 1 Feb.

Yeah i see your point of wiew even though eliot waves are not my preferate form of analysis. Me to see it at that level. This one could be tight.Cheers

Durden avatar
Durden 1 Mar.

good job 

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CAD/CHF ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8328, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Pivot Point #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel #Abc Correction
Since beginning of the year CAD/CHF has started trading inside an upward trading channel (see Figure 1). Based on Elliott Wave count we have completed a five wave cycle inside this upward channel and it's wise to expect from current levels a corrections. My projection sees wave A coming down to the base of wave 4 at around 0.8400 from where we should expect another run up towards 0.8500 and complete the sequence with another wave down.
Figure 1. CAD/CHF Daily Chart. Elliott Wave Count
…
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: The sell of that started from around the 0.8600 level has continued to extend to the downside as expected. Based on Elliott Wave the wave A should develop in 3 waves of smaller degree, so in this regard we have just completed wave a of A. Now we're in the process of developing wave b of A whihc should take form of an congestion zone between 0.8300-0.8450 levels.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: For now we have completed only wave A of higher degree which has took shape of another 3 wave of smaller degree. Key resistance level remains at 0.8500 big round number and the fact that we had a weekly close below it suggest that bears for now are in control. Support for next week comes in at 0.8400 level

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above key resistance level and big round number and it may be the case we're heading up as we broke above current range zone and usually this means further movement in the direction of the breakout. However if in the first days of next week the market is going to retrace back and close below 0.8500 this can be considered a false breakout

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 4: As expected and as per my previous update we stared selling from beginning of the week and by the end of the week we have a strong close below 0.8500 level. This is a much more complex  retracement and it may be the case we're developing a double zig-zag pattern

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NZD/CHF Trading Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 14 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/CHF, Target: 0.7438, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #NZD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Range #Abc Correction #Box Effect
Nothing much has happened with NZD/CHF in last few years as we are moving in an never ending ranging zones. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) you can notice this trading range boxes on top of each other which are characteristic in this range environment and which clears further current price structure. Usually the top/bottom of previous range box provides support or resistance for the next trading box as old resistance has become new support and vice versa. But there are times when price do…
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 2: Since my last update the market has stayed in a tight congestion between 0.7550-0.7450. based on Elliott wave this is a very common price action as usually during this stage of wave 4 we are moving in an consolidation. However we should complete an abc correction here so we can expect a false break out in either direction of this congestion zone than a move back inside the range before the resumption of the bearish trend

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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 3: We're only 30 pips away from our target and as expected we where trading inside this range  between 0.7550-0.7450 and we should continue trading inside this range in coming week as well. Key support for next week remains 0.7400 which needs to hold the market in order for our forecast to remain valid.

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Daytrader21 29 Oct.

Update 4: As expected the market found support at o.7400 as it was unable to break below and we already have some sort of reaction from this level. We have strong supply level at 0.7550 which should provide a good resistance and I'm hoping it will be a level good enough to give a strong momentum for another push down towards 0.7400

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Daytrader21 1 Nov.

Update 5: Although we broke above 0.7550 supply level it proved to be a false breakout as we're back down. For next week I'm expecting the next resistance level to be at  at 0.7500 big round number as we have a weekly close below this level it suggest further downside. We're now roughly 50 pips away from our target but Monday morning i'm expecting current sell off to resume and get closer to our forecast price.

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Daytrader21 3 Nov.

Update 6: AT 12:00PM we where only 30 pips away from our target but few hours later our target was hit and  the market found some temporary support right at our target of 0.7438. Overall I'm satisfied by how I've managed to predict the movements in this pair

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