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USD/CAD Cycle has ended

Daytrader21 Publié 18 oct comme Analyse sur USD/CAD, Cible: 1.2589, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Usdcad #Psychological Number #Abc Correction
Based on the Elliott wave analysis the 5 wave cycle in USD/CAD has completed and we're in the process of correcting the entire cycle started from 2012 low. Wave V of the bigger cycle has been completed at around the round number 1.3400. Right now we're in the process of developing wave A of an ABC correction pattern that will take place over the next few months.
Major Levels to watch:

[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 25 oct

Update 1: Unfortunately this pair has retrace way too much from the 1.2800 levels and it may be the case we're running out of time to reach 1.2500 in which case we may assume my forecast is wrong.

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First Trade Down, How Many to Go?

DaddyPapi Publier 5 juin  dans #Trader's blog #Pips #Consolidation #Abc Correction #Trade Setups #Trade Example
The ABC Setup on the EURO AUD went to its target as expected today. The movement was sharp as is typical of these signals, leading to the 195-Pip gain in just under 24 Hours.
The combination of this being an ABC Setup with a Pennant made it all the more likely that movement would be fast. From here the pair could move even higher in sync with the other EURO crosses across the rest of the market.
The Stop Loss used was higher than that which I use in my Methodology outside of the Trader Contest s…
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Bull,Bear Crowns, ABC Setups in Control of Market

DaddyPapi Publier 3 juin  dans #Trader's blog #Abc Correction #Trend Lines #Bull Crowns #Trend Reversals #Euro Crosses
The start of June sees several of the major Currency Pairs breaking out of strong setups that are leading to Trend Changes. Bull Crowns, ABC Setups and Consolidations are the most common Candlestick Patterns that you will see that lead to trend changes and these can now be seen on some of the EURO crosses.
Bull and Bear Crowns, also known as Head & Shoulders Patterns, involves 4 steps that eventually lead to the trend change. The first is the formation of the Left Tip. This is usually the last S…
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AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Publié 15 mai comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0960, Date: 1 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Fibonacci Retracement #Cycle #Abc Correction #Zig Zag Pattern
Based on Elliott Wave cycle if we count the move that started from the 2011 high (see Figure 1) all the way down to 2015 parity level we can tell that we have done a five wave move and us such we may consider the downtrend in the final stage. Right now we should be looking for a ABC corrective stage that should at least bring the price near the highs of wave IV at around the 1.1300 level.
Major Levels to watch:
[list=1][/list]…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 mai

Update 2: As per my analysis we're now heading towards the 50% fib retracement and as expected we made a temporary top at 1.0900. Next support comes in at 1.0600 which should be a good level to take profits as it can produce a bounce

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 mai

Update 3: Right now price is reacting off of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement and it may be the case we're not going to head much more lower and resume the current up trend. However we need current low at 1.0600 to hold price. Resistance comes in at previous swing high 1.0900.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 juin

Update 4: As expected AUD/NZD reacted higher from the 38.2 Fib level and we also broke above previous swing high at  1.09000. Right now for next week the 1.1000 big round number should act as support level which later on should be break

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 juin

Update 5: Unfortunately the upside momentum has pushed up this pair right into the major resistance at 1.13000. We should see from here a push lower at least in 3 waves however I'm not sure if there is enough time to reach our target near 1.1000. Even though there are only 200 pips difference current price structure worries me. If Monday we can push lower and close below 1.1180 we can see more downside

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 juin

Update 6: The market is already posting a reversal and a break below 1.1150 should see the market accelerating to the downside and eventually to see a retest of the big figure 1.1000

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NZD/CHF

Daytrader21 Publié 14 mai comme Analyse sur NZD/CHF, Cible: 0.6727, Date: 1 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #NZD/CHF #Elliot Wave #Psychological Number #Abc Correction #Range Box
On an intraday level we can count the Elliott Wave cycle which suggest that there is more room to the downside. Currently we have developed only 3 wave and we're in the stage of developing wave IV before another leg lower which can take shape of another 5 wave cycle of lower degree. Right now wave number IV should end at 0.7000 big psychological number and round number. In this regard we should expect one more push higher towards the 0.7000 big round number to complete the ABC p…
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3 Commentaires
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 mai

The title of this prediction should have been: NZD/CHF Elliott Wave Count

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 mai

Update 1: NZD/CHF is playing inside a tight range between 0.6800 support level and 0.7000 big round number and resistance level. We still need another new low for the Elliott Wave sequence to be completed.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 mai

Update 2: Right now the market is still inside the same trading range box that was last week within the following limits: 0.6770 support and bottom of the range and 0.6930 resistance and top of the range. This looks like an accumulation range from where price can break away and retrace all the way back towards the 50% fib retracement from previous swing wave, before a return and a retest of the range.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 juin

Update 3: Even though we broke below the key big figure 0.6500, we broke right into a big pivot point and we should see this pair moving back up inside the range. We should see some more consolidation between current support at 0.6460 and resistance level at 0.6600

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AUD/USD ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Publié 15 jan comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.8188, Date: 2 de mars, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Elliott Wave #Range #Abc Correction #Seasonality Cycle
Aussie is in the final stage to complete the Elliott Wave cycle that begin with the 2013 sell off. So far the market has corrected the sell off that started from 2013 with only 2 wave that can be subdivided in another 3 wave of smaller degree. Based on my Elliott Wave count we have already complete the 5 wave cycle. Right now wave 5 is completed and we should expect from here on an ABC correction
Even though the cycle may be complete that doesn't mean we can't have a new marginal low, belo the b…
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4 Commentaires
VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 15 jan

You work hard now, bravo. And good luck :)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 24 jan

Update 1: The market has decided to continue trading to the downside despite the 0.8000 big round number and strong support. However if we take in consideration the seasonality we should expect by the end of January and beginning of February to see aussie start recovering from this losses.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 fév

Update 2: Due to broad based dollar strength across the board aussie has been trading to the downside very aggressively without any kind of correction. Right now the 0.7600 level has been rejected for 2 times and we're forming a box trading but in order for aussie to turn back up again we need a daily close above 0.7880 current resistance level

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 fév

Update 3: It appears that wave V is having an extension in the wave 3 and such there is still more downside before to see any retracement. However based on my Elliott Wave count we're in the stage  of wave 4 of V, we have just completed a five wave sequence of lower degree to complete wave 3 of V and now we can see a retracement back to retest the big round number 0.8000

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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Publier 3 jan  dans #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Boj #Fed #Elliot Wave #Range #Abc Correction
I've posted this view on USD/JPY in the Technical Analysis Contest and I thought to share it here as well, you can find the original post here: USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have com…
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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Publié 27 déc comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 118.1100, Date: 2 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Abc Correction #Bullish Trend #Support Resistance
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have completed a 5 wave move Elliott Wave suggest we should expect an ABC correction but this should push us back all the way towards the levels of wave 4 which will be quite a big downside move. …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 28 jan

Update 2: USD/JPY has been contained inside a very tight range between 119.00 resistance zone and 117.00 support zone and also this area is the middle of a much wider range zone (see Figure 2).  Usually it's normal to consolidate in this region however based on Elliot wave we may have just completed a double zig-zag and we can expect the market to start breaking to the upside

WallStreetBlog avatar
WallStreetBlog 1 fév

Interesting!

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 1 fév

Update 3: 117.50 is a strong support, however due the fact it was tested for so many times it may be the case it will not hold anymore, in which case my forecast will be wrong. However there is a little chance if we gap to the upside on Sunday at the market open we may be heading back towards 118.00.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 1 fév

Yeah i see your point of wiew even though eliot waves are not my preferate form of analysis. Me to see it at that level. This one could be tight.Cheers

Durden avatar
Durden 1 mar

good job 

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GBPCAD looking to retest highs once again

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur GBP/CAD, Cible: 1.8580, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Fibonacci #Elliot Wave #Elliott Wave #Abc Correction #Gbpcad
GBPCAD has a clear wave count that can be seen on smaller time cyles which gives a better insight on the overal picture as the pair has mostly been consolidating for the year.
Levels
1.7653 - Daily Support Zone
1.7850 - Monthly Fib Level
1.8580 - Resistance
1.8648 - Previous spike high
The month chart shows the pair has not been able to close below it's 23.6% retracement, and the most recent leg catching a good bounce from that area as per the below chart.
Figure 1 - GBPCAD Monthly - fails to po
…
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4 Commentaires
Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 5 nov

The pair has started the month on a bullish note, and has caught some resistance at 1.8288.  So far it looks like a double correction has been completed and a pull back is anticipated here.  1.8070 offers a good support zone with the 50% Fib level as well as previous resistance.  The second support level would be the important 1.7952.  As long as price is contained by these levels, the upside view remains.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 9 nov

The pair ended the week with what appears to be a double bottom on smaller time frames against 1.7952.  The level is an important level in larger time frames and also marks the 76.4% retracement of the last leg up 1.7853-1.8288.  This is a critical level for upside momentum for the month.  The CAD has been showing strength as of late, and thus will be monitoring this level for the week.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

The pair has broken through support and continues to look bearish. 

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 25 nov

The technicals on this pair continue to look weak, as well from a fundamental perspective the GBP has become very bearish.  I don't anticipate a turn around in the pair

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EURJPY continues up trend after ABC correction

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 148.4100, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Fundamentals #Bullish #Eurjpy #Elliott Wave #Wave Count #Abc Correction
The BOJ has triggered buying once again in the xxxjpy pairs as they have reaffirmed further QE measures to be taken.
The pair has also completed a 3 wave correction against the main trend which has lasted close to 1 year now.
Levels
134.00 - Yearly low and bullish invalidation point
141.22 - Resistance and previous completion area for b wave of smaller degree
143.00-143.50 - Resistance zone
148.41 - Equal legs target
The first chart below shows the simple ABC corrective wave structure which is …
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

The pair continued higher last week.  After some hesistation around the mentioned resistance zone of 143.00-143.50 it managed to close the week touching multi year highs at 146.50. 
This week we are seeing strong selling which has been typical to start the week, however, the basis is on a JPY risk event and may carry some weight.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 25 nov

EURJPY continued it's rally last week to touch the resistance area and target marked in the analysis.  The equal legs area which also confluences a 127% extension provided sufficient resistance for the pair for a larger move lower.  Timing wise the pair has reached the area ahead of the time expected and will continue to see if the pair will consolidate in this area.  So far 145.65 which marks the 2013 high has managed to support the pair

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 27 nov

On the smaller cycles, the pair is stuck between the 50% retracement of the last leg down and a longer term trendline.  On the docket today is CPI data from Spain and Germany.  The German number has been forecast quite high in comparison to the overall inflation levels.  Will be keeping a close eye on the trendline which while supported has potential to bring the pair back towards targets.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 28 nov

The bullish move has occured.  Next on the docket is EUR CPI Flash Estimate.  This number usually comes in line but has the potential to cause some major volatility in the pair, especially if it comes in negative.  This number is the last risk event prior to the target date.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 déc

After faking out of the trendline the pair has once again shown clearly that the uptrend has most likely resumed.  With USDJPY leading the way breaking to new highs to start the week, the outlook on this pair is positive.  The chart indicates 147.947 as previous resistance which should act as support for the day.  To the upside we have 148.34 which is the resistance level (highest close on the Daily chart).  The pair can reasonably consolidate in this range prior to the NY Open.

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