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Aussie Back on the Offensive

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Australian Dollar #Pullback #Average True Range #Risk Sentiment
The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
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AUD/NZD in Range on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0653, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD has been trading in a tight 550 pips range since July of 2016. On our first chart below we can see that the high of this range is around 1.0770 while the low is at 1.0220.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: While the AUD/NZD didn't trade range-bound so far this month, there hasn't been much movement either. We're now quoted at 1.0808, only 155 pips from my forecasted price.

This is a distance that can be overcome in 2-3 days of trading so there is still a chance here! While prices definitively broke the first resistance at 1.0770, they're having trouble breaking above the second important level.

Overall mixed results so far but hoping that mean reversion will kick in soon. That has been the modus operandi for this pair for the past several years.

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Aussie Ready for a Breakout

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Aussie #Breakout #Bullish #Us Dolar
The Aussie looks ready for a breakout. Look at our first chart below. The AUD/USD has been pushing against the resistance area around 0.7700-0.7800 for the past 12 months. We've now quoted at 0.7671 and we are again approaching this area. With each subsequent test the odds increase that the resistance will eventually be broken.
Where do we target in case of a breakout? The monthly ATR for this currency pair is now at 388 pips, as can be seen below. But this is high to low range. The open to clos…
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Aussie Going Back to 0.7500

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7489, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Aussie #Us Dollar #Bullish Bias #Oversold #Stochastic #Average True Range
The Aussie is nearing oversold levels. On the daily chart below we can see that the pair dipped below the 20 level in the Stoch (8,3,3) and is now moving higher. This confirms a bullish signal for this pair.
A similar situation can be seen on the hourly chart below, although here the bullish scenario has been underway for several bars now. Notice how the pair rallied shortly after the dip below 20 and the move back above it.
Now let’s talk about the target. We’re currently quoted at 0.7222. Wi…
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 1 Jan.

great!

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Multi-Decade Range in AUD/CAD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9686, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Range #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box #Congestion
In trading you learn early that history matters. Both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to ranges between the two. The first chart below demonstrates this clearly.
On the second chart we see that the post-US election rally has completely reversed with the pair surrendering almost of gains.
Because all of the above I think that the AU…
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AUD/NZD Still Deep in Range Mode

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0397, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD is naturally a mean reverting pair due to the closely linked economies of Australia and New Zealand. But this has been the case even more in the past few years as the pair has repeatedly failed to trend. On the weekly chart below we see that any attempt to get something going was shut down, with rallies being sold into and sell-off being bought.
Take a look at the hourly chart below. The pair opened December at 1.0437 and is currently trading at 1.0386, not even 50 pips lower. This s…
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fxsurprise8 31 Jan.

The range-bound behavior in this pair continues! We opened January at 1.0375 and we're currently quoted at 1.0393, not even 20 pips higher.

The highest high during this month has been at 1.0570 while the lowest low was at 1.0324. A total monthly range of only 246 pups or just above 2 percent.

This is a very small amount for a pair comprised of two major currencies. Hopefully this trend continues into the end of the contest. We now have the long-term charts, the daily charts and the hourly charts all pointing flat.

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fxsurprise8 1 Feb.

On the last day of the contest the AUD/NZD inched away from my forecast. Prices rallied to a high of 1.0433 at one point, but likely we got a pullback as we got closer to the 12:00 mark.

In the end the pair 'closed' the contest period at 1.04143, only 17.3 pips away from my forecasted price. In percentage terms this is 0.1375%.

The short version is the AUD/NZD behaved exactly as expected, continuing in the vein of range-bound trading that has been its mark for years. In my last update I will do a more detailed review of this month's trading, along with a chart to back up my analysis.

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fxsurprise8 2 Feb.

Time for a final update. The two lines in picture above show the yearly open at 1.0375 and the contest period 'close' at 1.04143. The range during January is marked with a rectangle on chart.

The two obvious conclusions are one, the pair continued to range this month. You can't see a difference in the price action during January compared to the prior months.

The second conclusion is that prices didn't move much. The price difference between January 1st and the contest end on February 1st was only 39 pips, not even half a percent. Overall everything went according to the plan outlined above.

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 2 Feb.

very interesting article! good gob!)

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Aussie to Make a Break for 0.8000

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7819, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Rally #Australian Dollar #Uptrend #Average True Range #Us Elections
It’s been a good year for the Australian Dollar. The pair is up by 200 pips this year. This may not look like much but keep in mind that these gains were made in the context of general Dollar strength. Our first chart bellows shows the tentative but clear uptrend in 2016.
On our next chart we can see the same momentum higher but on a lower timeframe chart. While other pairs continue to suffer after Trump’s election win, the AUD/USD is heading higher. With both the long-term trend and the short-…
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TInna 1 Dec.

good

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Aussie to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.798, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USA #Australia #Trend #AUD/USD #Breakout #Us Dollar #Gains
I'm betting on the AUD/USD heading higher during November and here's why. On the first chart below we see a slow but steady trend higher for the Aussie.
On the second chart we notice the constant pressure by the bulls on the resistance area. With each thrust the odds increase that eventually they will break the dam and push prices upward. I'm placing my bet at 1.7980. This is just below the 1.8000 round figure and yet within the bounds of the monthly ATR for this pair.
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AUD/CAD Little Changed in Decades

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 1.0048, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #CAD #AUD/CAD #Aussie #Australian Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Range Bound #Range Box
The AUD/CAD is trading little changed in decades, as you can see on our first chart below. There is a fundamental reason for this, both the Aussie and the Loonie are commodity currencies. Commodities tend to rally or fall together in giant super-cycles. So more often then not, if the AUD is under pressure so will be the CAD, leading to no major price move against each other.
But let's drill down a bit. On our next chart below we can see what has been happening inside that small rectangle marked …
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Aussie Knocking on Crucial Resistance Area

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7984, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #Trendline #AUD/USD #Aussie #Breakout #Trends #Us Dollar
The Aussie is knocking on a crucial 80 pips-wide resistance area. Look at our chart below. We’ve been testing this general area between 0.7677 and 0.7757 for the past several months. Each time the bulls got repelled at a different price inside this resistance cluster. But with each test, the odds increase that we will see a bullish breakout.
On our second chart below we can see that the AUD/USD has finally broke the downward sloping trendline. This is an important development and could give the…
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