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AUDUsd pushing to break long term downtrend

AdamFx42 Posted 31 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7653, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trend #Audusd #AUD/USD #Breakout #Direction
AudUsd is looking to challenge long term downtrend
Looking at the weekly chart I see a long term downtrend:
Indicators (DiNapoli) and SMA's are pointing to bullish action, though
And a shorter term trendline seems to be leading the pair up to longer term downtrend upper border
On the daily chart it becomes more clear:
Here too, indicators are mostly bullish, and we can see price action playing out
I believe that longer term trendline will be tested and should hold at first
The daily trendline sh…
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AdamFx42 5 Aug.

Pair is looking bullish now, after pushing above 0.76 (after RBA rate cut!) and staying above that level even after strong US data today - my target seems near now

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AdamFx42 15 Aug.

pair is slightly above target now - looking good

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AdamFx42 15 Aug.

Upper trendline has held the move up - as I predicted - probably a retest to come though, pair should be led slightly lower, as it is declining trendline, this means that 0.77 should be resistence now

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AdamFx42 21 Aug.

Price is holding just below target and above 0.76 support - I am happy

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AdamFx42 26 Aug.

Right on target now - nice

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AUDUsd fundamentally recovering - technicals to follow

Copied from Internet AdamFx42 Posted 12 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7267, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Australia #AUD/USD #Bullish
Aud/Usd has rejected the lows of 0.70 a couple of times now
Data releases out of Australia point to a recovering economy, so the pair should go up
(what can't go down must go up)
We see a break of a downward trendline on the weekly chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7bJ1eFfa/
The trendline has now acted as support after the upward break, and should the pair bullish again
On the daily chart we can see some kind of closing wedge pattern forming above weekly trendline
…
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AdamFx42 22 Feb.

Pair has broken above upper border/resistance as laid out on my daily chart- pattern breakout
AudUsd is now holding above this line/0.72, now to see if it will act as support, then the pair can start to move higher and take out previous daily highs above 0.7240

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AdamFx42 24 Feb.

Pair has retraced back within pattern, and I expect lower support to hold (see daily chart)
This means pair should stay above 0.7110 and move up again for next breakout

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AdamFx42 1 Mar.

Holding above bottom trendline on daily chart after move up and retracement

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AdamFx42 2 Mar.

Price around target now - AudUsd looking bullish, broken above pattern and taking out previous highs

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AdamFx42 2 Mar.

My target on this pair has just been hit - that is a bit soon
I do expect AudUsd to rise above 0.73, so maybe it will retrace back to my target after that
or we may go down from here and back up

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USD crosses finding good technical support

AdamFx42 Posted 18 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #EUR/USD #Strong Technical Support #Back From Lows
The downmove in Eur/Usd and Aud/Usd was halted yesterday
Looking over my charts yesterday I noticed strong support levels in Eur/Usd
Aud/Usd showed an excellent setup for buying too
Combinations of important Fibonacci retracement levels coincided with 100/200 SMA crosses,
Stoichastic bullish divergence and pivot support - I provided snapshots of the charts with my positions
Usd was still looking to move up, but I decided to buy at these levels with tight stops
My stops were hit first time, so I …
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AUD sort of holds 0.7, but I lose most

AdamFx42 Posted 2 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #NZD/USD #Long Positions
I was stopped out in Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd longs today
I guess I bought just a bit too high, and i lost most of my money
I was down to around 10K at some point, and have about 20K now
Time for the comeback of the century, I suppose :-)
I am long Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd small positions now, to be able to bridge the weekend leverage
I hope to find my form again next week
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Start of a new trading month

AdamFx42 Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #Euro #AUD/USD #GBP/NZD
Good luck to all in the new trading month
With the contest prizes growing, it should be interesting this month!
I decided to short Aud/Usd today - but my SL was hit on that
I shorted Gbp/Nzd too, that pair is just way too high in my mind and should retrace,
I will let that position ride as long as possible
I am thinking of shorting Eur/Usd too, but I may change my mind about that
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AUD/USD in for another leg down

AdamFx42 Posted 4 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7553, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Weaker AUD #Rate Cut Coming #Bad Data
Aud/Usd looks like it is in trouble on the charts
After keeping the rates on hold this week, the Aud is still looking weak,
and resistance area just above 0.78 seems to be holding any move up
Now what can't go up must go down,
and I will use the weekly and daily charts to see where we could be heading too
Aud/Usd weekly chart
On the weekly chart we can see the pair moving down
The rsi_14 is, and remains very low, around 26 - the pair is looking very week
On the weekly chart I have put the monthl…
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AdamFx42 20 Mar.

After a deep plunge down - almost reaching my target - the pair is back just below 0.78 resistance area - looking for the next move down

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AdamFx42 28 Mar.

pair is looking weak again now, 0.78 is resistance, expect a move down soon

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AdamFx42 3 Apr.

Pair has moved down strongly prior to expected rate cut this month by RBA
My target was hit yesterday, and pair is holding around 0.765 now

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AdamFx42 8 Apr.

RBA no rate cut has led the pair higher, but it remains bearish long-term,
my target might still be hit if there is a bearish (news) trigger

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AdamFx42 13 Apr.

Aud weakening again, as predicted -- target now in sight, about 40 pips above

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AUD/USD down towards strong support area

AdamFx42 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8466, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fibonacci Expansion #Daily Rsi Low #Support Area
Aud/Usd is on its way down towards a Fibonacci Expansion Target and good support area
Aud/Usd is bearish at the moment, as government is talking down the currency towards 0.82 level;
this is seen as a right projection of the currencies value in Australia
On the charts we see that the currency is weak at the moment against Usd,
and further decline is likely to follow
If I draw Fibonacci expansion level of the last bigger move - then the 61.8% level comes in just below 0.8450,
the last smaller mov…
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AdamFx42 4 Dec.

Price has broken below combination of resistance areas on weekly chart,
I thought it would hold for now - there is the chance that target has been overshot
due to fierce selling action, and then price will bounce back up towards target

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AdamFx42 10 Dec.

Low came in around 0.8230 - now 100 pips higher, I guess that is a bounce off that level,
see if it can continue any higher towards target

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AUD/USD to take out previous lows before bouncing back

AdamFx42 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8733, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fibonacci Expansion #Fibonacci Retracement #Bearish Price Action
Aud/Usd is on its way down at the moment
There are strong bearish candles and weekly trendline is bearish too
61.8% fibonacci expansion level of the last weekly move has been broken and retested
and price is still below - indicating a move towards 100% fibonacci expansion level
I believe price will reach this level around 0.84 before bouncing up again
therefore I have drawn an imaginary fibonacci retracement from this level
to see towards where the bounce can go
Aud/Usd weekly chart
On the…
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AdamFx42 30 Oct.

weekly downward trendline has been tested at upper border and held price below
waiting for the next move down

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AdamFx42 5 Nov.

Aud/Usd is moving towards target at 0.84 now

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AdamFx42 10 Nov.

0.8540 is the low for now - price is back up to 0.8670, indicating a move up
and a low in place

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AdamFx42 15 Nov.

Low is in place now - price is on target now - 0.8770 should be strong resistance,
this is the newly formed fibonacci daily 61.8% retracement of last move down
Support is building around 0.8680 - this is now 38.2% fibonacci daily retracement level
Price is moving between these two levels on my target - as predicted

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Some strong support looming for AUD/USD

AdamFx42 Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8823, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fibonacci Expansion #Fibonacci Retracement #Strong Support
Aud/Usd weakness has pushed the price down very low
I believe it will drop a little more before support is found
If we look at the monthly chart:
Aud/Usd monthly chart
We are nearing 50% monthly fibonacci retracement of last big move up around 0.854,
last move fibonacci expansion 61.8% level is just above around 0.87
This could be a combined support area to stop the price fall
Zooming in a little to the weekly chart:
Aud/Usd weekly chart
We can see the support area just below
I believe the…
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AdamFx42 28 Oct.

Establishing a base above 0.8805 now  -- next level to break/resistance is 0.8850

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AdamFx42 29 Oct.

AUd/Usd was nearing 0.89, but has been knocked down after FOMC decision and has broken below 0.88 again - need it to retrace back up a bit

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AdamFx42 30 Oct.

Pair is above 0.88 again after yesterday's losses - this is a bullish sign,
0.8850 - 23.6% fibonacci retracement on daily chart remains resistance,
and sellers are lined up here - price should remain below here now

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AdamFx42 31 Oct.

0.878 area now acting as firm support, holding price above 0.88, sellers around 0.885 still remain in control at the resistance area, so target seems good

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AdamFx42 31 Oct.

I'd say my prediction as drawn on my daily chart looks almost identical to reality now,
so I am happy with this one

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AUD/USD on the down

AdamFx42 Posted 17 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.9202, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Cannot Hold Highs #Downtrend #Bearish Daily Channel
Aud/Usd has repeatedly failed to hold and/or break up to new highs
On the weekly chart we can now see that the pair is wavering and seems to be in trouble;
if 0.95 is the high for now on the weekly chart,
we may see another decline downward, possibly to form the right shoulder
of an inversed head and shoulder pattern around 0.88 in the long run:
Aud/Usd weekly chart
On the daily chart we can see what the price action predicts for the near-future;
the pair is currently in a bearish channel on the…
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AdamFx42 17 Aug.

For some reason my charts are wrong, here are the correct links:
weekly chart and daily chart: 

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AdamFx42 3 Sep.

Not much change in the price yet - I guess 0.95 will hold as a top, and price action
will move down sooner or later as there are no fundamental or technical changes

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AdamFx42 11 Sep.

Yes, there we go (down), everything is against Aud and it has overshot my target already,
bearish daily channel is correct and we may see a bounce up from lower border

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AdamFx42 16 Sep.

we have had a bounce up - but I am still shy of target

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