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AUD/USD Range Mode

Daytrader21 Przesłano 30 Maj jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.7642, Data: 1 z Lipiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Audusd #AUD/USD #Bearish #Head And Shoulders Pattern #Range #Range Box
Since beginning of the year aussie has been trading in a big range zone with the big round number and psychological figure 0.7500 acting as support and 0.8000 another big round number acting as resistance. It also may be the case we're forming a head and shoulders pattern(see Figure 1) in which case we should expect another rally towards 0.7800 level to form the right shoulder.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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4 Komentarze
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 Cze

Update 1: Aussie has been moving over the past week in a very tight range between 0.7800 resistance level and 0.7600 support level. Next week we should expect another break higher above 0.7800 and find resistance at 0.7850 before going back down.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 Cze

Update 2: We have been trading inside a very narrow range between 0.7600 support level and 0.7850 resistance level. As long as this level are in place we should see more consolidation. Because of the summer range trading conditions there is a high probability we wont see any major moves

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 Cze

Update 3: Right now we're retesting the 0.7650 level which is also my target. There is still room to retest the 0.7600 round number before to react from this support level. The bias remains that in for the last 2 days of the month the market to trade between 0.7600 and 0.7700 resistance level.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 Cze

Update 4: Now that we retested the key support level 0.7600 as per my previous update we got bounce and we are trading right now into 0.7700 which should act as resistance. For more downside we need an hourly close below 0.7690

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RBA Keep Rates on Hold

Daytrader21 Uaktualniono 3 Mar  w #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #AUD/NZD #Central Banks #Rba #Market Sentiment #Interest Rates #Economic Reports
This week is abundant in big economic reports and figures and last night we just had the first Central Bank announcing its interest rate decision. Despite the market consensus for a 25bp cut, RBA "unexpectedly" disappointed the market and decided to keep the key interest rates on hold at 2.25%.
RBA interest rate decision is an BINARY event that can have only 2 possible outcome:
  1. Either RBA delivers a rate cut.
  2. Or keep rates on hold
in which case we have a non-event. However taking in consideratio…
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2 Komentarze
CommunitySupport avatar
CommunitySupport 3 Mar

Hi, nice post, just shared it on Twitter

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 3 Mar

CommunitySupport Hi, Thanks. I've tweeted it as well.

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AUD/USD ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Przesłano 15 Sty jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.8188, Data: 2 z Marzec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Elliott Wave #Range #Abc Correction #Seasonality Cycle
Aussie is in the final stage to complete the Elliott Wave cycle that begin with the 2013 sell off. So far the market has corrected the sell off that started from 2013 with only 2 wave that can be subdivided in another 3 wave of smaller degree. Based on my Elliott Wave count we have already complete the 5 wave cycle. Right now wave 5 is completed and we should expect from here on an ABC correction
Even though the cycle may be complete that doesn't mean we can't have a new marginal low, belo the b…
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4 Komentarze
VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 15 Sty

You work hard now, bravo. And good luck :)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 24 Sty

Update 1: The market has decided to continue trading to the downside despite the 0.8000 big round number and strong support. However if we take in consideration the seasonality we should expect by the end of January and beginning of February to see aussie start recovering from this losses.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 Luty

Update 2: Due to broad based dollar strength across the board aussie has been trading to the downside very aggressively without any kind of correction. Right now the 0.7600 level has been rejected for 2 times and we're forming a box trading but in order for aussie to turn back up again we need a daily close above 0.7880 current resistance level

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Luty

Update 3: It appears that wave V is having an extension in the wave 3 and such there is still more downside before to see any retracement. However based on my Elliott Wave count we're in the stage  of wave 4 of V, we have just completed a five wave sequence of lower degree to complete wave 3 of V and now we can see a retracement back to retest the big round number 0.8000

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Aussie Elliott Wave Cycle Final Stage

Daytrader21 Przesłano 16 Lis jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.8616, Data: 2 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Gold #Elliott Wave #Cycle #Downtrend
Aussie is in the final stage to complete the Elliott Wave cycle that begin with the 2013 sell off. So far the market has corrected the sell off that started from 2013 with only 2 wave that can be subdivided in another 3 wave of smaller degree. Based on my Elliott Wave count we're in the final stage to complete the whole cycle. Right now wave C is developing and we should expect another 3 waves of smaller degree. We need a break above 0.9400 to complete wave "a" and than a resumption of the curre…
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3 Komentarze
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Lis

Update 1: In the short term the upside remains favorable in order to complete another abc sequence which will forma wave C of higher degree. It appears that we're forming a small double bottom at 0.8560 and as long as this level holds expect more upside. For next week resistance is at 0.8800 level.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 Lis

Update 2: Although we break below we haven't succeed in breaking the big round number 0.8500 suggesting that the bulls may be still in charge, at least on the short term. Next week if we break below this level it may be the case we're heading lower much more sooner than i was expected.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 8 Gru

Update 3: The bearish trend has started resuming to soon and it may be the case my timing on this forecast to be wrong. However during this time of the year there can be big spikes in prices and as the dollar bull move may look overextended in the short term we can have a correction.

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September Seasonal Forex patterns.

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 8 Wrz  w #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #EUR/USD #Seasonality Patterns #Forex Market
I've been speaking about seasonal cycles in FX trading last month in the Article contest, read more about it here: Seasonal Cycles in Fx Trading
You can find there more details how this seasonal patterns affect the exchange rate and more importantly how to correctly use them in your trading activity. The seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same p…
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2 Komentarze
Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 8 Wrz

Quite an interesting article. Thanks!

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 8 Wrz

+1

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AUD/USD Rectangle Pattern Projects 0.9800

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 18 Sie  w #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Elliott Wave #Rectangle Pattern #Range #Cycle
This analysis has been posted in Technical Analysis Contest as well and it can been found here: AUD/USD Rectangle Pattern Projects 0.9800
Aussie has been moving for the most part of this summer in a rectangle pattern(see Figure 1) which project a target of 0.9800 once we have a break and a close below the support level of 0.9200. If we measure the range between the 0.9500 round number and resistance level and 0.8200 support level we have an 300 pip range which projected to the upside gives us th…
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1 Komentarze
ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 18 Sie

Professional!

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AUD/USD Rectangle Pattern Projects 0.9800

Daytrader21 Przesłano 16 Sie jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.9462, Data: 1 z Październik, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Elliott Wave #Cycles #Rectangle Pattern #Range
Aussie has been moving for the most part of this summer in a rectangle pattern(see Figure 1) which project a target of 0.9800 once we have a break and a close below the support level of 0.9200. If we measure the range between the 0.9500 round number and resistance level and 0.8200 support level we have an 300 pip range which projected to the upside gives us the 0.9800 target level.
Figure 1. Aussie Daily Chart.
Also based on Elliott Wave since beginning of last year (see Figure 2) au…
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3 Komentarze
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 24 Sie

Update 1: as expect we had a final spike lower towards 0.9200 support level where the market found some strong buyers and we had a rebound. We're under way to develop the last wave "C" of this correction. Before to continue pushing higher we can expect some pull back towards 0.9280 where the market should find support. Next resistance for the next week stands at 0.9370

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 30 Sie

Update 2: As per my last Update we indeed push back to retest the 0.9370 intermediate support level which confirms that our projection is on the money. Now we can say that wave C is developing as momentum has started to push higher but as long as current low volatility stay in place expect a slow market.Nex intermediate resistance for next week is 0.9415

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 6 Wrz

Update 3: Although we took another dive towards 0.9270 the market quickly reverse confirming once again that buyers are in control of this market. Wave C can take multiple form and my expectation is for a 3 more upside legs where wave a and c of wave C would develop 3 waves of lesser degree and wave b only 1 wave making a total of 7 upside waves. So we should be able by the time we complete wave C to count 7 wave from low to 0.9800

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RBA Holds Rates at Record Low

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 5 Sie  w #Trader's blog #Volatility #AUD/USD #Rba #Carry Trade #Interest Rates #Fed #Yield
Despite the fact that RBA has left it's main interest rates at record low level aussie has kept on rallying and the main reason is because in current low volatility environment investor who can't make a profit from a barely moving market are chasing yields and AUD/USD has long been one of the favorite currencies for the carry trade.
RBA left the interest rates unchanged at 2.5% and RBA's Stevens said :“The most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” which c…
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3 Komentarze
Neu_spir8 avatar
Neu_spir8 5 Sie

If current 4H candle close below .9335 then am going short, perfect analysis man,all the best.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 5 Sie

Neu_spir8 I see what you mean with 0.9335 is a strong resistance level which previously has acted as support, a good level

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 5 Sie

good luck!

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Aussie Final Stage of Correction

Daytrader21 Przesłano 15 Maj jako Analiza AUD/USD, Cel: 0.9220, Data: 1 z Lipiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Correlation #Gold #Elliott Wave #Correction #Bearish Trend
Since beginning of last year aussie has completed a five wave cycle to the downside and right now is correcting that cycle which is still in the earlier stage as we only manage to complete wave A, we need wave B to go at least to 50% fib retracement of wave A but at the same time it can go as low as previous swing low but without breaking that point in order for our analysis to be correct.
In Figure 1 is the AUD/USD daily chart which shows the Elliott Wave count and future projections. Right now…
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4 Komentarze
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 24 Maj

Update 1: Aussie has been following this prediction to the pip we already sold of and we should see now price consolidating between 0.9200-0.9300 in the coming months as the Gold Fractal is suggesting

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 9 Cze

Update 2: The current rally is just wave x of a much larger correction WXY. Based on Elliot wave we should expect further consolidation between 0.9400 and 0.9200 as the 1 month implied volatility is hitting new lows  we should see the range getting tighter.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 18 Cze

Update 3: It seems we where right from previous update as 0.9400 has acted as strong resistance and now we are heading to develop the final price structure of this correction. Wave X has ended at 0.9430 and now we must develop a flat or a 3 wave down movement. We need a break and a close below 0.9300 strong support level before any downside pressure to persist.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Cze

Update 4: the reaction we have seen from 0.9300 level is a corrective move based on price structure and we should see momentum start piking up to the downside from here on as we couldn't broke previous swing high at 0.9430 which suggest this upside move is very weak.

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Preparing the week ahead

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 6 Kwi  w #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #AUD/USD #Boj #EUR/USD #Unemployment Rate #Easing #Risk Events #Deflationary

Last week was definitely hot in terms on high risk events as on one hand we had the ECB monetary policy and on the other hand we had NFP figures which saw 3 straight monthly increases in the labor market, and S&P500 hitting a new all time high. The fact that ECB has not acted on the deflationary pressures is becoming an increasingly bigger threat to EU zone this puts a higher risk on the upcoming inflation figures from different countries withing EU zone that are abo…
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1 Komentarze
Convallium avatar
Convallium 6 Kwi

interesting post as always! )

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