AdrianWS's Blog

Avatar

AUDUSD

The Aussie has been the worst performer of 2013 as I write and really is due a move higher - Down over 11.8% YTD it is really oversold, It seems for now that we could see an Inverse H&S formation, but it may be to soon to call it. Like all FX pairs - a lot depends on the Taper decision as this will directly hit EM markets and the AUD will be hit as a proxy hedge to further declines in EM markets. This combined with the Quant view that the interest rate differential is playing a major part in the…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 14 Sep.

This has gone very well in terms of a trade - we have reached 0.932 and some, but we've calmed down a tad and eased off. However there are a lot of short term fundamentals from China which are short term positive

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 21 Sep.

Currently sat about 70 pips above my target, this pair had broken higher but found resistance at the 38% resistance level just above 0.95 and so could drop further/consolidate as the calendar is pretty light until next month

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUDUSD long

As we stand now weekly stochastics signal the most oversold AUDUSD since 2004, well below the levels seen in 2008, RSI is at similar levels and recent CoT data has shown us that there are record shorts in the AUDUSD. For this reason getting long on a contrary play is my main trade for the summer months (and for the next two weeks while I'm on holiday).Here shows the weekly chart with very support candles and with Stochastics very smoothly signalling a move higher. Both previous oversold stochast…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 24 Aug.

As we are getting close to the end of the month - the AUD has struggled to gain momentum, broadly speaking as the EM world has really struggled. While I still expect us to trade up to 0.9350, it may take a while

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 30 Aug.

closing the week at 0.89 is tough for bulls but there is strong support down here, nevertheless, far from my prediction - however my others were very good.

orto leave comments