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fxsurprise8's Blog

fxsurprise8's Blog

Aussie Back on the Offensive

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Australian Dollar #Pullback #Average True Range #Risk Sentiment

The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …

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Aussie Ready for a Breakout

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Aussie #Breakout #Bullish #Us Dolar

The Aussie looks ready for a breakout. Look at our first chart below. The AUD/USD has been pushing against the resistance area around 0.7700-0.7800 for the past 12 months. We've now quoted at 0.7671 and we are again approaching this area. With each subsequent test the odds increase that the resistance will eventually be broken.
Where do we target in case of a breakout? The monthly ATR for this currency pair is now at 388 pips, as can be seen below. But this is high to low range. The open to clos…

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Aussie Going Back to 0.7500

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7489, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Aussie #Us Dollar #Bullish Bias #Oversold #Stochastic #Average True Range

The Aussie is nearing oversold levels. On the daily chart below we can see that the pair dipped below the 20 level in the Stoch (8,3,3) and is now moving higher. This confirms a bullish signal for this pair.
A similar situation can be seen on the hourly chart below, although here the bullish scenario has been underway for several bars now. Notice how the pair rallied shortly after the dip below 20 and the move back above it.
Now let’s talk about the target. We’re currently quoted at 0.7222. Wi…

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Aussie to Make a Break for 0.8000

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7819, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Rally #Australian Dollar #Uptrend #Average True Range #Us Elections

It’s been a good year for the Australian Dollar. The pair is up by 200 pips this year. This may not look like much but keep in mind that these gains were made in the context of general Dollar strength. Our first chart bellows shows the tentative but clear uptrend in 2016.
On our next chart we can see the same momentum higher but on a lower timeframe chart. While other pairs continue to suffer after Trump’s election win, the AUD/USD is heading higher. With both the long-term trend and the short-…

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Aussie to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.798, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USA #Australia #Trend #AUD/USD #Breakout #Us Dollar #Gains

I'm betting on the AUD/USD heading higher during November and here's why. On the first chart below we see a slow but steady trend higher for the Aussie.
On the second chart we notice the constant pressure by the bulls on the resistance area. With each thrust the odds increase that eventually they will break the dam and push prices upward. I'm placing my bet at 1.7980. This is just below the 1.8000 round figure and yet within the bounds of the monthly ATR for this pair.

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Aussie Knocking on Crucial Resistance Area

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7984, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #Trendline #AUD/USD #Aussie #Breakout #Trends #Us Dollar

The Aussie is knocking on a crucial 80 pips-wide resistance area. Look at our chart below. We’ve been testing this general area between 0.7677 and 0.7757 for the past several months. Each time the bulls got repelled at a different price inside this resistance cluster. But with each test, the odds increase that we will see a bullish breakout.
On our second chart below we can see that the AUD/USD has finally broke the downward sloping trendline. This is an important development and could give the…

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One Short Aussie Trade

fxsurprise8 Veröffentlicht 3 Nov. in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #EUR/USD #Trader's Contest

I only took one trade today, a short Aussie. I entered right before the RBA announcement, hoping for a rate cut. I jumped right out after we didn't get the cut. Total gain about 1-2 pips.
I have a bunch of pending orders now on, short Aussie, long Pound and short EUR/JPY. My reasons for adding a short EUR/JPY trade are technical but here's a Bloomberg article that goes over some fundamental factors as well.
After being taken out by the large rally in the EUR/USD last week, I can't find a good sp…

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No Orders Triggered Yet

fxsurprise8 Veröffentlicht 2 Nov. in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #AUD/USD #Trader's Contest

It has been a calm Monday and so far none of my orders have triggered. I have a long Cable on a break above 1.5500 and a short AUD/USD below 0.7067.
Hopefully we get some movement in the next few days before the NFP storm catches the market.
The Euro is slowly drifting lower and is currently back down to 1.1015. This seems a more appropriate pricing compared to 1,1070 on Friday. I will probably add a short EUR/USD trade as well but so far I can't find a good position to enter.

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Caught Wrong-Footed

fxsurprise8 Veröffentlicht 14 Oct. in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #AUD/USD #Trader's Contest

I got caught wrong-footed in the today's massive anti-USD rally. I shorted the Pound around 1.5274. I also kept my short Aussie.
I got stopped on both positions when the 14:30 US News came out. Total gain for my AUD/USD short +33 pips or +16,400. Total loss on my GBP/USD short, a large 123 pips but only 26,500 due to the much smaller position in this pair.
The news was that both US Retail Sales and the PPI (Producer Price Index) came in substantially below market forecasts. This added to fears t…

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Finally Shorting the Aussie Pays Off

fxsurprise8 Veröffentlicht 13 Oct. in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #AUD/USD #Trader's Contest

Shorting the Aussie is finally paying off. My trade is now 23 pips in the green. The pair traded as low as 0.7252 few hours ago but currently we have retraced somewhat to 0.7276. I plan to hold this trade until we hit the 20 simple moving average on the daily chart. This is currently at 0.7115.
I also had a long GBP/USD on a break above 1.5380. This trade thankfully didn't trigger as all my margin was taken by the short AUD/USD. The Pound only traded as high as 1.5387 then it sharply reversed al…

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