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AUD/NZD in Range on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0653, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD has been trading in a tight 550 pips range since July of 2016. On our first chart below we can see that the high of this range is around 1.0770 while the low is at 1.0220.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
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fxsurprise8 27 mar

UPDATE 1: While the AUD/NZD didn't trade range-bound so far this month, there hasn't been much movement either. We're now quoted at 1.0808, only 155 pips from my forecasted price.

This is a distance that can be overcome in 2-3 days of trading so there is still a chance here! While prices definitively broke the first resistance at 1.0770, they're having trouble breaking above the second important level.

Overall mixed results so far but hoping that mean reversion will kick in soon. That has been the modus operandi for this pair for the past several years.

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AUD/NZD Still Deep in Range Mode

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0397, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD is naturally a mean reverting pair due to the closely linked economies of Australia and New Zealand. But this has been the case even more in the past few years as the pair has repeatedly failed to trend. On the weekly chart below we see that any attempt to get something going was shut down, with rallies being sold into and sell-off being bought.
Take a look at the hourly chart below. The pair opened December at 1.0437 and is currently trading at 1.0386, not even 50 pips lower. This s…
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fxsurprise8 31 jan

The range-bound behavior in this pair continues! We opened January at 1.0375 and we're currently quoted at 1.0393, not even 20 pips higher.

The highest high during this month has been at 1.0570 while the lowest low was at 1.0324. A total monthly range of only 246 pups or just above 2 percent.

This is a very small amount for a pair comprised of two major currencies. Hopefully this trend continues into the end of the contest. We now have the long-term charts, the daily charts and the hourly charts all pointing flat.

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 1 fév

On the last day of the contest the AUD/NZD inched away from my forecast. Prices rallied to a high of 1.0433 at one point, but likely we got a pullback as we got closer to the 12:00 mark.

In the end the pair 'closed' the contest period at 1.04143, only 17.3 pips away from my forecasted price. In percentage terms this is 0.1375%.

The short version is the AUD/NZD behaved exactly as expected, continuing in the vein of range-bound trading that has been its mark for years. In my last update I will do a more detailed review of this month's trading, along with a chart to back up my analysis.

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2 fév

Time for a final update. The two lines in picture above show the yearly open at 1.0375 and the contest period 'close' at 1.04143. The range during January is marked with a rectangle on chart.

The two obvious conclusions are one, the pair continued to range this month. You can't see a difference in the price action during January compared to the prior months.

The second conclusion is that prices didn't move much. The price difference between January 1st and the contest end on February 1st was only 39 pips, not even half a percent. Overall everything went according to the plan outlined above.

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Sveetlana 2 fév

very interesting article! good gob!)

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More of the Same in the AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0636, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range Bound #New Zealand Dollar
I'm expecting more of the same for the AUD/NZD and here's why. First on the long-term charts we can see that this pair has been range-bound for the past 2 years. Although volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019, no major changes happened in price.
This volatile but untimely range-bound movement can be seen in the second half of this year as well. See the chart below. During October the monthly range has been very small as well at onl…
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fxsurprise8 28 nov

It's been a trending month for most currency pairs but not so much for the AUD/NZD. Here we saw prices initially fall down over 300 pips, only to rally over 300 pips, then fall by over 200 pips.

So far in November we saw a total range of 340 pips, with a high of 1.0703 and a low at 1.0363.  This may seem like a lot but we are currently quoted at 1.0570, only 61 pips down since November 1st.

Compared to my forecast above we're down by 66 pips or around 0.62%. I will need some bullish movement into month-end to climb higher in the rankings.

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No Clear Trends Seen in AUD/NZD

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.052, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Australia #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #New Zealand #Range #New Zealand Dollar
No clear trend can be seen in the AUD/NZD. Volatility has been high at times with prices hitting a high of 1.1676 last August and a low of 1.0019 in April 2015. But no major changes happened in price as we saw the pair snap back from the extremes.
The two economies of Australia and New Zealand are closely linked thus range-bound movement seems to the norm for this pair. The short-term daily chart below confirm this view. We've made no progress in this pair since June of this year. Furthermore th…
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fxsurprise8 31 oct

The AUD/NZD is now quoted at 1.0640, about 120 pips above my forecasted price. The monthly range has been fairly small as well at only 260 pips, with a high at 1.0764 and a low at 1.0504.

Furthermore we still remain deep inside the now five-month range that started back in June, with a high at 1.0771 and the five-month low at 1.0236.

The three arguments above confirm my original analysis from above that there are no clear trends in this pair. I will need a helping hand from the market to move prices a bit closer to my target though.

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AUD/NZD to Reverse at Support

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0741, Date: 3 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Support #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Reversal Pattern #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar
The AUD/NZD is nearing important support, this year's low for the pair at 1.0309. We're now quoted at 1.0379 after trading as low as 1.0349 just few hours earlier.
The second reason why I'm betting on a reversal rally here is ho oversold the AUD/NZD is right now. Note the Stochastic on the 4 Hour chart is below 20, signalling oversold territory. My target is 1.0741, right below this summer's highs in this pair. I think a 400 pips rally is about the max the AUD/NZD can do in one month.
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rashadali 9 sep

good job )

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A Neighborly Tie

fxsurprise8 Publié 29 fév comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0819, Date: 1 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #NZD #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi
The AUD/NZD has spent the last few months forming an ever narrower range. On the chart below we can see that prices have formed a triangle pattern.
While this formation will eventually result in a breakout, we're not there yet. On a lower time-frame we can see that the pair remains locked in this range, with moves higher followed by moves lower.
Neither the trend on the higher TF nor the momentum on the lower TF suggest anything but more of the same. Thus I'm betting on 1.0819, close to the curr…
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Islands Battle to End in a Tie

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0525, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD
The AUD/NZD is not a big mover historically. The reason for this is simple. The two nations Australia and New Zealand do a lot of trade with each other. In addition, they both live off selling commodities and these tend to move together and in cycles. With the recent downturn in commodity prices, both currencies have lost a lot of ground against the majors. But against each other, there has been little movement this year. We opened 2015 at 1.0526 and we are currently quoted at 1.0525.
So we basi…
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AUD/NZD Fall to Stop Near 10 Year Low

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0464, Date: 2 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi
December wasn't kind to the Aussie. The currency lost ground against most majors. It even lost a fantastic 370 pips against the currency of its smaller neighbor, the Kiwi. The AUD and NZD have interlinked economies. Both of the them are highly dependent on commodities prices, which have been falling in the second half of this year.
This coupled with the slowdown in China is pushing the two currencies in the crapper. I think the relative strength of the Kiwi versus the Aussie is overdone. If we l…
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The Range in AUD/NZD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.0821, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Australia #AUD/NZD #New Zealand
For the past year, the AND/NZD has traded in a small 8 percent range between 1.0500 and 1.1300. In November, Aussie weakness pushed prices away from the 1.13 mark and the pair tumbled close to 500 pips.
Looking back on the monthly chart, usually after periods of massive selling in the pair prices stabilized the next month. For an example of this, take a look at July 2013 and before that April 2013. The losses of May and July 2011 were also followed by consolidation period. I expect this pattern …
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AUD/NZD to Remain Below 1.1300

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur AUD/NZD, Cible: 1.1284, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #AUD/NZD #Aussie
The AUD/NZD had an odd year. The pair first fell 700 pips to 1.0491, only to rally over 800 pips to a high of 1.1295. We are currently trading at 1.1284, the same price as July of 2013. Despite all the turmoil, the interlinked Australian and New Zealand economies eventually converged and the pair followed suit. As can be seen from the monthly chart below, the AUD/NZD revolved around 1.1200 for the entire last year.
With prices now trading close to the important 1.1300 resistance, I expect the li…
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