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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

AUDJPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there …
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Update 1: We're still moving inside the range box from Figure 1. Right now support stands at big figure 95.00.  We should continue moving inside this range zone for the most part in the coming weeks because of the summer trading conditions. Resistance stands at 97.00.

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Update 2: The market it still reluctant to go higher and right now the 94.50 support level is retested. The fact that we couldn't break it and have a weekly close below it is a sign that we should see higher price into next week. Resistance stands at 96.30.

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AUD/JPY Range Box Trading

AUDJPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there …
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Update 1: We have manged to post a big weekly rejection bar which has a long wick, which is signaling a reversal. Fore next week we have 95.00 round number and support at previous week low around the 93.00 level.

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Update 2: We have made a double top at 96.00 level which is a strong signal that we may turn down and as the seasonality pattern suggest in the second half of the month we should be trading lower

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Update 3: The market seems to run into a multi-year resistance level at around 96.00 level, from where we should expect a reaction. For next week resistance stands at 96.00 and major support at 95.00 big round number and psychological number. We need a break and a daily close below this level for further downside movement.

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Update 4: There are only few hours left until the week is over, and there is a high probability we'll see a close below the big figure 95.00, once that happens look for a retest of the last swing point at 93.50 to be retested. There is no other levels until that level is hit so we should have a smooth move

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Update 4: As of today we finally managed to break and close below the key round number 95.00. Next big level comes in at 93.50 there is no other important support level until than so it should be trading to the downside in the next days

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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

Back in November we had an upthrust breakout above the current upward channel, but it proved to be a false breakout and now we're trading back within the channel boundaries. This false breakout is only telling us that at one point we had some eager buyers who for whatever reason wanted to be in this bullish move and usually that's how a trend move starts. And even thought we retraced back inside the channel that's a good sign as we don't want the market to move in a straight line as those usuall…
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Update 1: The market is still trying to recover from the 89.00 level and the current up leg is still intact and we should see momentum start accelerating to the upside only after we manage to break the 94.23 level which is also previous week high

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Update 2: Nothing much has happened as we continue to trade inside a very tight range between 94.00 resistance level and 92.00 support level. From here on it's all about in which direction we'll get the breakout . As per my analysis and due the strong seasonality tendencies we should break above the 94.00 level

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AUD/JPY Back Inside the Upward Channel

Back in November we had an upthrust breakout above the current upward channel, but it proved to be a false breakout and now we're trading back within the channel boundaries. This false breakout is only telling us that at one point we had some eager buyers who for whatever reason wanted to be in this bullish move and usually that's how a trend move starts. And even thought we retraced back inside the channel that's a good sign as we don't want the market to move in a straight line as those usuall…
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Update 1: The market found some kind of support on the lower side of the upward channel. But for the next few weeks it looks like the market it's trapped inside a big range with 98.50 resistance zone and 94.50 support level.

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Update 2: Even though we had a strong sell off last week this is in accordance with the seasonality pattern which suggest a strong sell off at the end of the month followed by a quick recovery. We need to see this happening during the next week. Support remains the last week low at 93.00

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Update 3: During the opening of the new week session we overextended the sell off below 93.00 but the sell off was quickly consumed back and we saw a strong rebound as expected. The seasonality pattern have been warning of this rebound (see Figure 2) And we should expect the rally to continue higher. Major resistance level remains at big round number 95.00

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AUD/JPY Upward Channel Ready to Break Down

It seems like AUD/JPY has been turning to the downside once we got in place the 98.50 swing high. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) we can see the whole price structure which shows that since beginning of the year we have moved within an upward channel. But we lack momentum inside this upward channel that's one of the main reason why the up move was unsustained and now we're turning lower. Ultimately I'm expecting AUD/JPY to challenge again the 88.00 big pivot point.
Figure 1: AU
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Happy Sunday and best wishes for next week :)

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Update 1: This past week we had first attempt to break the channel but we had a reaction. However this doesn't change the current bearish sentiment and as long as we stay below 95.00 level we should expect further downside. Next week the major support is 91.72 previous swing low which i'm expecting to be challenged.

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AUD/JPY Never Ending Consolidation

AUD/JPY has been trading in a narrow consolidation zone(see Figure 1) for the entire summer period. Most significant movement happened right before the summer when we had a spike lower towards the 93.00 figure and since than the consolidation zone has narrowed even further with 94.40 support zone and 96.40 resistance zone. Current projections should go as this: first we need a break and a close below 94.00 level which is the bottom of this rectangle, followed by another break towards 92.00 level…
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Update 1: It may be the case I'm wrong on this prediction as we broke the upside resistance level at 96.50 and we have retested it and got a rejection signaling buyers are in control

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AUDJPY Stuck in Range

Since summer of last year AUD/JPY has been moving in a wide range zone without any define clear trend. From Figure 1 we can see how well defined this range zone was we has a range zone of 930 pips with resistance 95.60 at and support at 86.30. Inside this wedge based on Elliot Wave theory we should count at least 5 waves before we can move outside this range zone.
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Update 1: Unfortunately we broke above the 95.60 resistance level that capped the market for such a long time. however if the momentum can't keep up and if the market turn back and close below that level than there is a change to see further consolidation.

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Update 2: There is still hope for this market to turn lower as the fact that we can't break the 96.00 level and sustain the momentum is a clear sign that we're about for a correction. Next support stands at 93.66 we need a 3 wave move into that level for further consolidation in this zone, which is just 20 pips away from our target

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Update 3: As expected the the 96.00 level has been keeping the upside move in balance and the fact that we couldn't break it for such many days it reason enough to expect the market to turn lower. Once we break the 95.00 support level we should see the momentum start accelerating to the downside

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