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EURo to trade above 1.10 in May

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Improved Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
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al_dcdemo 8 May

UPDATE 5: Emmanuel Macron is the next French president. His winning by a wider than expected margin and also Merkel's success at state election in Germany led to a small gap higher at the open. Higher prices were not sustained and sell-the-fact trade ensued. Pulling back about 70 pips from the overnight high, EUR/USD is now firmly back below 1.10. 1.095 is the immediate support, followed by 1.09 and stronger one between 1.083 and 1.085. 1.10 should continue to act as a resistance until convincingly broken.

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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 6: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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EURo to test 1.10 in April

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0925, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Improved Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Emmanuel Macron (23.9%) and Marine Le Pen (21.4%) are the winners of the first round of the French presidental election. Pollsters did a good job this time around with the results coming in largely as expected. Euro gapped higher overnight as Macron victory remains the most likely scenario. The pair traded above 1.0930 in pre-market and opened just above 1.09, that's about 180 pips from Friday closing levels. EUR/JPY gap was even more impressive, close to 380 pips. Latest polls suggest Macron's lead has narrowed, which could lead to some further pullback in both pairs.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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al_dcdemo 1 May

UPDATE 11: Euro has been carving out a triangle-like consolidation pattern on intraday timeframes since the first round of the French election. This is usually a continuation pattern. Much better than expected inflation report last week also supports the bullish bias. A failure of the pattern would begin filling the post-election gap but stronger demand would likely start coming in below 1.08. Price path during the forecast period was was not as steep as I predicted but I was quite accurate with the price forecast, as it ended up about 20 pips from the target.

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EURo to remain in 1.0350 - 1.10 range for now

al_dcdemo Posted 18 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0725, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair traded below 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. That said, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Correction in dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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al_dcdemo 3 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Euro traded above both December high and 200 DMA last week before pulling back sharply. One of the reasons was weak core inflation print which doesn't support ideas of any sooner than expected tightening by the ECB. The pair lost a good cent on the week with the range of two and a half cents. Established S/R line near 1.0650 is holding for now, reinforced by 50 and 100 DMA. Current downswing may extend to the trendline, drawn off of January and March lows.

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EURo to recover some more in February

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0825, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair traded below 1.05 - 1.15 range …
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al_dcdemo 11 Feb.

UPDATE 6: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even then, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two Fed rate hikes this year.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

UPDATE 7: The dollar rallied across the board yesterday, after Yellen's introductory speech at Humphrey Hawkins was released. She didn't say anything particularly new but was a bit more hawkish than the market had expected. EUR/USD broke below 50 DMA and traded to as low as 1.0560. Since topping out near 1.0830 at the start of the month, the pair fell in eight out of ten days. Big figure at 1.05 is the next target while 50 DMA and 1.06 should now act as resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in the markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off is notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. EUR/USD is having hard time sustaining upticks above 50 DMA. A retest of 1.05 in the days ahead is possible, if dollar strength returns.

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GBP/USD to fall further as investors hedge Brexit risk

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3725, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Seven Year Lows
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows bu…
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al_dcdemo 17 Mar.

UPDATE 5: Contrary to what many market participants expected in light of strong employment and inflation readings in the U.S., the Fed were surprisingly dovish at their yesterday's meeting, citing global economic developments as main risk. Cable rose 150 pips in the two hours after the release which added to 220 pips from the day's low. 50 DMA is the immediate resistance with last week's high (~1.4435) the next target. 1.40 support remains firmly in place as Brexit worries seem to subside somewhat.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Cable so far gained about three and a half cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always possibility of a sharp move in these conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Despite Brexit talk on the weekend, Cable opened near Friday levels and rose 50 pips in the morning. After a small pullback it surged another 120 pips in the afternoon, helped by weaker than expected U.S. spending data. The pair stalled ahead of 50 DMA (currently ~1.4270), which is the level to watch in the day ahead. 1.42 shall now hold as a support if this rally still has some legs. Upside may be limited though.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on weaker than expected report than gains on a better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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EUR/USD to head higher in February

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1175, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Dovishness
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in the spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It is holding near long-term trendline, supported by 1985 and 2000 lows a…
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al_dcdemo 16 Feb.

UPDATE 5: Euro surged to 1.1375 last week, to the highest since October 2015. It briefly traded above the 22 October high, the day when ECB president Draghi said that the bank will review its policy in December. Prices above 1.13 were not sustained and the pair embarked on a pullback. It is currently about 200 pips below the high and the pullback doesn't seem to be over yet. 200 DMA is the first stronger resistance ahead of the broken 1.10 level.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 6: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 19 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Following some stabilization in world stock and commodity markets and overall improvement in risk sentiment, volatility in major currency pairs fell. The pairs mostly end the week not very far (~100 pips) from their opening levels but the ranges are still decent (100 - 300 pips). Whether is this just a temporary calm remains to be seen as global macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 26 Feb.

UPDATE 8: After falling in eight out of nine days since February 12th, Euro finally closed higher yesterday. A tug of war around 1.10, between 50 and 100 DMA on the downside and 200 DMA on the upside, is currently resolving to the bulls' liking. However, the move is happening on low Asian session volume. We'll have to wait until European/London session to see whether it will be confirmed.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Friday provided everything that the dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Euro lost almost a cent on the day with the daily range worth a good cent and a half. Slowing inflation in Germany was not helping it.

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NZD/USD to continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Breakdown #Decline #Downtrend #Rbnz #Short Trade #Consoldation #Sharp Spike #50 Day Sma
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 during July and August before it…
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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 1: Kiwi broke to new six-year lows on Tuesday but the breakout proved to be fake as the pair rejected lower prices and rallied into the close. It was also the pair that took the most out of yesterday's commodity pair rally. Profit taking in GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD might have also been a factor. However, sellers were quick to step back in after hawkish remarks from Yellen.

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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 2: ANZ Business Confidence is the only noteworthy data point from New Zealand on next's week calendar. However, month-end and quarter-end flows combined with a slew of US economic events (Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP report) will most likely provide decent volatility. 0.6225 - 0.6450 is the range that is protected by 50 DMA on the topside and strong support into 0.62 (also July 2009 low) at the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week on a softer note but after 100 pip fall it pulled right back into the middle of its recent trading range between 0.6250 and 0.6450. Despite weakness in commodities and general risk-off sentiment, indecision has been the name of the game in the pair during the past few weeks. It may be that it has fallen enough, but most likely it's just another pause before continuation lower.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 4: Kiwi traded mostly in the upper half of its recent (0.6250 - 0.6450) range this week which may signal that an upside break is in the making. Range top coincides with 50 DMA at the moment and, if the pair manages to break and hold above it, revisit of 0.65 - 0.66 zone is quite likely. However, we must be wary of a false breakout too as the longer-term trend is still to the downside.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: RBNZ governor Governor Wheeler sent Kiwi tumbling by saying that "some further easing seems likely". That's nothing new as that's the exact line from the last rate statement but it came at the time when many traders were looking for excuse to book their profits after 500 pip rally from the low set in September. The decline stalled at 100 DMA, just above the broken trendline drawn off July and August highs. Should the pair continue to fall, 0.64 - 0.65 band (50 DMA, 50.0% retracement of the rally, September high) is the potential target.

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