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USD/JPY uptrend to continue in 2017

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.75, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Short Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of 2016. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big 100 …
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed members. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session trading.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about half a cent but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Can USD/JPY close the year in the green?

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.25, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Momentum #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair fell more than 2000 pips in the first half of this year. The combination of 2014 low, 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics rally and the big …
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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 19 Dec.

UPDATE 7: USD/JPY rose to the highest level since January on the day after the FOMC decision, adding nearly 400 pips in two days. Tomorrow, the BOJ concludes its two day meeting and, while no policy change is expected, there was some talk about the bank rising its yield target. Today's pullback in the pair probably reflects some position squaring ahead of the meeting and into the year-end holidays. 117 is the immediate support with the stronger one between 115 and 116. On the upside, the next target is 119.5 - 120.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 10: Even though there are holidays in many countries today, traders have been eager to get on board of USD/JPY move, which does seem to have at least some potential still. The pair jumped 50 pips in two hours as European session got underway. 115.50 - 116 held on Friday and is the first stronger support area to watch before 114.50 - 115. Last week's high (117.80) is the initial resistance. A successful break would target December high (118.65) and then 119.50 - 120.

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Yen carry trade is back

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 106.25, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Carry Trade #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 9 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed. I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my opinion.

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al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The dollar rallied 150 pips against the yen on Monday as traders scrambled to get on board of the latest move. Trump's proposed fiscal stimulus in form of tax cuts and infrastructure spending worth several $tn are leading markets to price in a steeper path of the federal funds rate. Japanese GDP came in better than expected. That supported the Nikkei and the pair. Now even more so, U.S. dollar based investors are paid to hedge yen exposure. Technically, 38.2% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 downswing at 109.25 is the next target and then the big 110 level.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after the U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 8: USD/JPY rose 200 pips yesterday in the first four hours of N.A. trading. (Core) Durable Goods Orders report was better than expected while Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales missed expectations but still came in solid. Later, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed broad support for a December hike. The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement) is the next target. 109 - 110 should contain a deeper pullback.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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Kiwi may pull back a bit in October

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA …
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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 22 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The New Zealand dollar remains one of the most wanted G10 major currencies due to its relatively high yield and creditworthiness of the country. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut its official cash rate in November but this appears to have been largely priced in by now. Better than expected inflation data helped to propel the pair to around 0.7250 mid-week before a profit-taking pullback took it back to 0.7150. The interim high coincided with 50 DMA which makes it the first stronger resistance level to watch on the upside. 100 DMA at 0.7175 should not prove to be too big of a hurdle.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Major currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Yen may break below 100 in October

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 98.75, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Bearish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place in September showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset buying. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. The U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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USD/JPY to remain offered

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 98.75, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to l…
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al_dcdemo 10 Sep.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar made an impressive comeback on Friday. It ended the day higher in all G7 major currency pairs. On the week, the dollar closed higher against the Cable, the Loonie and the Aussie. The rally was widely attributed to hawkish comments from a dovish Fed president Rosengren, which hit markets as N.A. session got underway. The comments spooked markets, risk assets in particular, many of which closed near the lows of the day. All this makes a speech from also dovish Fed governor Brainard on Monday even more important.

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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a hefty part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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USD/JPY to remain under pressure

al_dcdemo Posted 29 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 101.25, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after U.K. voted to lea…
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All in all, this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about further room for monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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USD/JPY to recover before further downside

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 100.25, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 0 Retracement #Brexit #Net Long Positioning #Monetary Policy Limits
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has lost more than 2000 pips this year, dropping below 50, 100 and 200 week SMA. The latter was convincingly broken after Britons voted to …
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al_dcdemo 11 July

UPDATE 5: June's NFP report showed that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted an all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

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al_dcdemo 21 July

UPDATE 6: Having broken 50 DMA two days ago, USD/JPY extended its advance past Brexit day high (106.80) and the downtrendline, drawn off of January 2015 and May 2016 highs. The pair has traded to as high as 107.50 in the Asian session. That looks like a logical place to take some profits ahead of the BOJ meeting next week, so some consolidation would not be that surprising. 100 DMA (108.30) is the first stronger resistance and 50 DMA (106.10) support.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 7: USD/JPY continues to be volatile. The pair has been moving on stimulus package size rumours recently. After falling nearly 300 pips from Monday high to Tuesday low it retested Monday high earlier today before pulling back again. The BOJ concludes their two day meeting on Friday when they'll be announcing the eagerly awaited decision. Depending on if, what and how much they'll do, the decision has the potential to move the pair a couple of hundred of pips in either direction.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be a minuscule one, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP reading. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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Cable the strongest

al_dcdemo Posted 18 June  in #Trader's blog #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #European Session #Inflation Report #Labour Market Report #200 Wma #50 0 Retracement
Cable had a great run as it rose in the last seven out of eight days. It shrugged off weak inflation report, but the labour market report (particularly wages data) and hawkish BOE sent it higher in yesterday's European session. The gains were compounded after the Fed offered too little for the Dollar bulls.
Next resistance may come in between 1.5870 and 1.5900 (200 WMA, 50.0% retracement of July 2014 to April 2015 decline, 1.59 level) before stronger into 1.60. Broken 1.58 level shall now act as…
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