Открыть торговый счет 
There is no disguising it, things are quiet in the FX market. We are reacting to key events and stats, and after having our `fix` of vol, we sit back, over analyse minor data, and wait for the next `hit` to come; don`t fret – NFP time soon!!
I would like to take a slightly longer term view of the majors, and look at what might be, by year end.
My overall theme is for a stronger dollar, and for £ to weaken perhaps to the mid 1.50`s, and for the Euro to come down to the mid 1.20`s. This would of course be a reversal to the theme of the third quarter.
Whilst the medium term outlook for the dollar is positive in my view, there may be some further weakness in the coming month as the excessively tedious annual dance of debt ceilings and federal budgets takes place. Once this political football has been kicked round enough to a resolution (which is in the best interests of Republicans AND Democrats) we can focus on wider issues. As long as this process is resolved without doing too much damage to markets ( I DO expect a fall in equity markets in October), I would expect thinking to turn again to the taper. Enough has been said about about the `will they, won`t they`, it doesn`t really matter! The process will start this year, hopefully sooner rather than later, and once the market focuses on that we can start to see the dollar strengthen.
Regarding the Euro, I see some of the big issues coming to the fore after the German election – bail outs and banking reform to name but two. OK, the market knows about these, but I sense greater problems on both these fronts (and others) than perhaps we expect.
For £, we are towards the top of the range, and as long as exaggerated ( fiscal cliff etc) $ weakness does not occur, I think we will lapse back into the mid 1.50`s. Continued insistence by the BOE that interest rates will stay low, will also be a weight.
So that`s what I think. When things inevitably go `a bit Pete Tong`, expect all sorts of excuses. BUT, I would be very interested to hear what others think, and the reasoning behind it. Just remember, as someone once remarked, the idea that the future is unpredictable, is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained……
I would like to take a slightly longer term view of the majors, and look at what might be, by year end.
My overall theme is for a stronger dollar, and for £ to weaken perhaps to the mid 1.50`s, and for the Euro to come down to the mid 1.20`s. This would of course be a reversal to the theme of the third quarter.
Whilst the medium term outlook for the dollar is positive in my view, there may be some further weakness in the coming month as the excessively tedious annual dance of debt ceilings and federal budgets takes place. Once this political football has been kicked round enough to a resolution (which is in the best interests of Republicans AND Democrats) we can focus on wider issues. As long as this process is resolved without doing too much damage to markets ( I DO expect a fall in equity markets in October), I would expect thinking to turn again to the taper. Enough has been said about about the `will they, won`t they`, it doesn`t really matter! The process will start this year, hopefully sooner rather than later, and once the market focuses on that we can start to see the dollar strengthen.
Regarding the Euro, I see some of the big issues coming to the fore after the German election – bail outs and banking reform to name but two. OK, the market knows about these, but I sense greater problems on both these fronts (and others) than perhaps we expect.
For £, we are towards the top of the range, and as long as exaggerated ( fiscal cliff etc) $ weakness does not occur, I think we will lapse back into the mid 1.50`s. Continued insistence by the BOE that interest rates will stay low, will also be a weight.
So that`s what I think. When things inevitably go `a bit Pete Tong`, expect all sorts of excuses. BUT, I would be very interested to hear what others think, and the reasoning behind it. Just remember, as someone once remarked, the idea that the future is unpredictable, is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained……