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The Office for National Statistics in the UK announced that second quarter growth showed an increase of 0.6% - the best growth figures since mid-2010.
BUT, what does this growth figure actually mean to the wider population? The answer is very little.
With other closely scrutinized numbers such as unemployment stats, and inflation figures, at least there is a relevance to peoples’ daily lives, but what about GDP?? The breakdown of this figure is where the real interest lies. The services side of the economy performed reasonably well, but the parts of the economy where real middle-class jobs come from (manufacturing and construction) are nowhere near the required levels.
The parts of GDP that have meaning over the life choices/possibilities of people don’t look so promising. And don’t forget that these numbers are only provisional – only about 40% of the data is actually in. Thus, the inevitable revisions to this number will be announced over the next 6 months.
Even though the initial GDP statistic is unreliable, but markets move based on it. In fact most of the closely anticipated numbers that come out of governments are provisional and their only real purpose is to give the markets something (even if unsubstantial) to hang on to.
Just remember the fuss there used to be about US non - farm payrolls – and then look at the subsequent revisions during the next couple of quarters. Had the real (eventual) number been known at the time, markets could have reacted totally differently.
But as they say in the newspaper industry – never let the facts get in the way of a good story......