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Big slip on the NFP figure but impressive improvement/reduction in the unemployment rate – was pretty surprising.
How did you interpret this?
USD bias was Bullish, but disappointing NFP crippled Dollar bullishness. And, JPY was fairly Bearish, however, improved
unemployment suddenly changed it’s bearish outlook into Bullish. This is despite the long term Bearish bias.
Why? I wondered.
Then I understood the connection – improved employment in US is a big push for US to not only be firmer on their taper schedule, but also start contemplating possibility of year end interest rate hike. But this should make Dollar Bullish, shouldn’t it? Yes, it would have , in fact extremely bullish, had the NFP also came positive. But, unfortunately, it didn’t.
Now, any factor supporting the continuation of Taper, would threaten the risk benchmark like Nekkei 225 and S&P 500… I suppose, JPY on the other hand got a boost as the US employment outlook posed more threat to its risk counterpart - Nekkei. And, as a result JPY went up and USD down.
What else could be the reason?
…Anil.
How did you interpret this?
USD bias was Bullish, but disappointing NFP crippled Dollar bullishness. And, JPY was fairly Bearish, however, improved
unemployment suddenly changed it’s bearish outlook into Bullish. This is despite the long term Bearish bias.
Why? I wondered.
Then I understood the connection – improved employment in US is a big push for US to not only be firmer on their taper schedule, but also start contemplating possibility of year end interest rate hike. But this should make Dollar Bullish, shouldn’t it? Yes, it would have , in fact extremely bullish, had the NFP also came positive. But, unfortunately, it didn’t.
Now, any factor supporting the continuation of Taper, would threaten the risk benchmark like Nekkei 225 and S&P 500… I suppose, JPY on the other hand got a boost as the US employment outlook posed more threat to its risk counterpart - Nekkei. And, as a result JPY went up and USD down.
What else could be the reason?
…Anil.