EUR-JPY has been ranging since the beginning of January, when looked at from a 4-Hours perspective. Volume-wise though, it has been very active, and understanding this activity is essential to know what the major players are doing.

First there were several demand signals just as 2016 was starting. This halted the down move. Afterwards there stopping volume when reaching 129.10 area (red bars).
More recently, there was a major shake-out, painted as Major Demand by VSA – there was a lower low made, yet prices closed on the highs of the bar, and above the previous support. This was a move to hit stop-losses which provided plenty of liquidity for professional buying.
Approaching the down trendline, there was a no-demand test (pink bar) – as prices penetrated the trend line, the volumes didn’t keep up, which means there wasn’t much demand. On the next bar, prices refused to close down though, on a relatively high volume. This could mean renewed interest in an up move, and the confirmation will be the trend line break on good volume (checking the hourly might be the best). If the bearish test succeeds, as in a failure to seeing a breakout of the trend line and/or test’s high in the next bars, I’d expect prices to drift downwards onto the support. The ultimate level to watch for is the resistance at 129.074.
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